Wind Advisory 6, NWS Grand Forks, ND

610 
WWUS73 KFGF 231453
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
953 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

MNZ003-029-030-040-NDZ039-049-052-053-232300-
/O.CON.KFGF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250324T0000Z/
Clay-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-Grant-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Lawndale, Rutland, Erdahl, Milnor,
Moorhead, Lisbon, Fargo, McLeod, Enderlin, Barrett, Herman, Elbow
Lake, Gwinner, Breckenridge, Forman, Fergus Falls, Wahpeton,
Ashby, and Hoffman
953 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Minnesota, Clay, Grant, West Otter Tail, and Wilkin 
  Counties. In North Dakota, Cass, Ransom, Richland, and Sargent 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Perroux

280 
WWUS73 KFGF 231937
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
237 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

MNZ003-029-030-040-NDZ039-049-052-053-232045-
/O.CAN.KFGF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250324T0000Z/
Clay-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-Grant-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Moorhead, Lawndale, Gwinner, Fergus
Falls, Fargo, Wahpeton, Barrett, Breckenridge, Hoffman, Enderlin,
Milnor, Rutland, Erdahl, Forman, Lisbon, Ashby, McLeod, Elbow
Lake, and Herman
237 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Perroux

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1220 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow, light icing, and gusty winds will bring
  advisory-level impacts to portions of northwest Minnesota
  late Saturday through Sunday afternoon.

- There is a 40 percent chance of warning-level impacts within
  northwest Minnesota and the northern Red River Valley due to
  the combination of snowfall between 3 to 6 inches, glaze of
  ice, and gusty winds up to 35 mph.

- Lowered confidence in warning-level impacts is due to
  uncertainty regarding the rapid evolution of the system as it
  moves into Minnesota. Confidence should increase between
  tonight and Sunday morning as the system begins to intensify.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

The surface warm front is trying to work its way into our area
right now. Precipitation appears to continue to be very sparse
beneath the low cloud deck in northwest Minnesota. Expect a
quiet day today before rain and snow increase this evening.

UPDATE
Issued at 932 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Strong warm air advection is occurring across eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota and has aided in some isolated
flurries where saturation is occurring closer to the
international border. Impacts will remain very limited since not
a lot of it will reach the ground. Temperatures will increase
once the surface warm front stationed in north-central South
Dakota advects northward into North Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Reflectivity this morning is evident west of the Red River
Valley, with no reports of snow reaching the ground due to
persistent dry air. Cloud cover will continue building into the
area from west to east today as a shortwave ridge, then an upper
low, works into the Northern Plains. Overall, the forecast
remains on track this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

...Synopsis...

Developing upper level shortwave trough lee of an upper jet is
noted on water vapor imagery traversing the northern Rockies
into the Northern Plains early this morning. This synoptic
feature will rapidly deepen as it moves through North Dakota
today before occluding within Minnesota Sunday. Rapid deepening
will increase winds starting this afternoon. Lingering dry air
may lead to near critical fire weather conditions, mainly south
of US Highway 2. Winter impacts are then forecast within
portions of Minnesota, potentially into the Red River Valley,
along with gusty winds late Saturday into Sunday. More details
on this found below.

As the shortwave exits to the east, ensemble guidance favors
upper ridging to develop over the West with upper troughing over
the Northeast, placing the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
under northwest flow aloft through at least Thursday.
Progressive waves within this flow will traverse the region,
potentially bringing transient light precipitation. There is
some guidance that brings more noteworthy forcing into the
region late next week. This brings the next appreciate chance
for accumulating precipitation, including a chance for winter
precipitation.

After Sunday, overall temperatures are forecast to be near
average to potentially above average by the end of the week.

...Winter impacts to northwest Minnesota late Saturday to Sunday...

Models are in agreement that the shortwave moving through the
Dakotas into Minnesota will undergo a brief but intense period
of deepening/strengthening today into Sunday. This will
notably increase forcing for ascent. With moisture fed in from
a jet extension out of the Pacific, this will lead to a
blossoming of precipitation starting later today mainly as rain
near the warm sector of the low. As this precipitation wraps
into colder air, it will transition into a wintry mix of
freezing rain and snow followed by dominant snow. Currently,
most guidance depicts this occuring late afternoon into tonight
within northwest Minnesota, leading to a glaze of ice before the
transition to all snow occurs. Best chance for glaze of ice
exists near Bemidji to near Thief River Falls to Lake of the
Woods area.

As the system moves into Minnesota, most guidance begins its
occlusion process with the mid level circulation closing off.
This will help focus area of moderate to heavy snowfall aided by
transient but collocated area of frontogenesis and perhaps some
weak instability. This brings potential for sharply reduced
visibility from heavy snow rates approaching 1 inch per hour in
a relatively small, narrow zone. Based on latest guidance, best
chance for this area also resides in northwest Minnesota, where
2 to 5 inches of snow is currently forecast. Some uncertainty
continues on the higher end snowfall amounts, however. More on
this found below.

The rapidly deepening surface low moving out of South Dakota
into Minnesota will also tighten the pressure gradient
increasing winds, particularly on the western flanks of the
surface low. Cold air advection doesn't look particularly
strong, with greatest magnitude likely to be within southeast
North Dakota into west-central Minnesota on Sunday. Still,
northerly winds, increased pressure gradient and at least weak
cold air advection will promote gusty winds up to 35 mph within
the Red River Valley, with probable lesser winds to 25 mph into
the trees of northwest Minnesota where majority of snow and ice
accumulations are forecast.

...Chance for warning-level impacts and lingering
uncertainty...

While most guidance is in agreement on the location and general
evolution of the synoptic shortwave trough, the relatively
compact, smaller spatial scale of this rapidly deepening trough
makes this particular feature more like a mesoscale feature,
lowering predictability in more precise locations of snowfall
and icing. There still exists a scenario where heavier snowfall
in addition to light icing starts earlier than currently
forecast into the Red River Valley. If this happens, warning-
level impacts will ensue due to the high likelihood of higher
winds up to 35 mph, leading to blowing snow. Overall chance of
this occuring is around 40%.

There is some uncertainty in high end snowfall amounts, again
owing to the mesoscale-like nature of this feature in addition
to frontogenesis juxtaposed within area of greatest, focused
synoptic ascent. Some guidance brings snow amounts as high as 8
inches, but holds about a 10% chance of occurring.

Lastly, there is a 40% chance winds are greater than forecast
within northwest Minnesota. Should this occur, warning-type
impacts may also ensue here as they combine with snow and ice
accumulations.

Once the system begins its rapidly deepening process into South
Dakota tonight into early Sunday morning, we should get a better
handle on whether or not this lingering uncertainties will
occur or not.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Winds will eventually shift to northwesterly through the
overnight hours as a system brings rain and snow to our area.
Timing both precipitation and wind shifts out will be a pain so
expect timing to change at each TAF site, particularly at the
routine issuances at 00z and 06z. Precipitation should begin as
rain but a quick changeover to snow is expected. There may be a
brief period of freezing rain in between the rain/snow at FAR,
BJI, and TVF but this should be short-lived before changing to
snow. Snow will clear out from west to east, but will linger
through the remainder of the TAF period in northwest Minnesota.
Here, heavy snow is possible and may create visibility
reductions to LIFR/VLIFR at times. Expect at least MVFR
conditions at all TAF sites, with IFR ceilings and visibility
reductions possible for the Minnesota TAF sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     MNZ005-006-008-009-016-017.

&&

UPDATE...Lynch/Perroux
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Perroux

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

MNZ005-006-008-009-016-017-231145-
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-
645 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Accumulating snow, light icing, and gusty winds will bring
advisory-level impacts to portions of northwest Minnesota late
Saturday through Sunday afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a 40 percent chance of warning-level impacts on Sunday
within northwest Minnesota and the northern Red River Valley due
to the combination of snowfall between 3 to 6 inches, glaze of
ice, and gusty winds up to 35 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

MNZ001-002-004-007-013>015-022>024-027-028-031-032-NDZ008-016-027-
030-231145-
West Polk-Norman-Kittson-West Marshall-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-
East Becker-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-
Grand Forks-Traill-
645 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rain will change briefly to freezing rain overnight tonight, with
a low chance for a light glaze of ice. This will then transition
to snow during the late overnight period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Light snow will combine with gusty northwest winds, bringing the
chance for blowing snow and visibility reductions as low as 1/2
mile. The highest chance will be in the central and northern Red
River Valley through much of the day on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

MNZ003-029-030-040-NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-
052>054-231145-
Clay-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-
Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Steele-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
645 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for light rain or a rain/snow mix tonight. This
will transition to snow heading into the late overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Light snow and gusty northwest winds could bring visibility down
to 1 mile or less in some areas through the day on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.