Wind Advisory 16, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Becker County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

211 
WWUS73 KFGF 051501
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-029-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-
039-049-052>054-052100-
/O.CON.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251005T2100Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Wilkin-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-
Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-
Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Langdon, Fosston, Devils Lake, Halstad,
Leeds, Middle River, Forman, Ada, Newfolden, Drayton, Hillsboro,
Gwinner, Cavalier, Lisbon, Red Lake Falls, Hallock, Warren, Grand
Forks, East Grand Forks, Lankin, Grafton, New Rockford, Cando,
Wahpeton, Valley City, Moorhead, Cooperstown, Thief River Falls,
Breckenridge, Crookston, Finley, Fargo, Michigan, Mayville, and
Roseau
1001 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM CDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Rafferty

335 
WWUS73 KFGF 051732
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1232 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

MNZ022>024-027-028-030>032-040-060000-
/O.EXB.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-West
Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
Including the cities of Lake Itasca, Wadena, Elbow Lake,
Mahnomen, Two Inlets, Fergus Falls, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes,
and New York Mills
1232 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Wadena, Hubbard, East Becker, Mahnomen, South Clearwater, 
  West Becker, East Otter Tail, Grant, and West Otter Tail Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-029-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-
039-049-052>054-060000-
/O.EXT.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Wilkin-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-
Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-
Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Langdon, Fosston, Devils Lake, Halstad,
Leeds, Middle River, Forman, Ada, Newfolden, Drayton, Hillsboro,
Gwinner, Cavalier, Lisbon, Red Lake Falls, Hallock, Warren, Grand
Forks, East Grand Forks, Lankin, Grafton, New Rockford, Cando,
Wahpeton, Valley City, Moorhead, Cooperstown, Thief River Falls,
Breckenridge, Crookston, Finley, Fargo, Michigan, Mayville, and
Roseau
1232 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Rafferty

765 
WWUS73 KFGF 051957
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
257 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-060400-
/O.NEW.KFGF.FZ.W.0001.251006T0500Z-251006T1400Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-
Including the cities of Langdon, Devils Lake, Leeds, New
Rockford, and Cando
257 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT 
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with 
  gusts up to 45 mph. For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing 
  temperatures as low as 23 expected.

* WHERE...Benson, Cavalier, Eddy, Ramsey, and Towner Counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 7 PM CDT this evening. For the 
  Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 
  Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive 
  vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052-054-
060400-
/O.NEW.KFGF.FR.Y.0007.251006T0500Z-251006T1400Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Nelson-Grand
Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Western
Walsh-
Including the cities of Fosston, Halstad, Middle River, Forman,
Ada, Newfolden, Drayton, Hillsboro, Gwinner, Cavalier, Lisbon,
Red Lake Falls, Hallock, Warren, Grand Forks, East Grand Forks,
Lankin, Grafton, Valley City, Moorhead, Cooperstown, Thief River
Falls, Crookston, Finley, Fargo, Michigan, Mayville, and Roseau
257 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT 
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with 
  gusts up to 55 mph. For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 
  28 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 7 PM CDT this evening. For the 
  Frost Advisory, from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 
  Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor 
  plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MNZ022>024-027>032-040-NDZ053-060000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Richland-
Including the cities of Lake Itasca, Wadena, Elbow Lake,
Breckenridge, Mahnomen, Two Inlets, Fergus Falls, Park Rapids,
Detroit Lakes, Wahpeton, and New York Mills
257 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest, and west 
  central Minnesota and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Rafferty

946 
WWUS73 KFGF 052033
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
333 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-060445-
/O.CON.KFGF.FZ.W.0001.251006T0500Z-251006T1400Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-
Including the cities of Langdon, Devils Lake, Leeds, New
Rockford, and Cando
333 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM 
CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with 
  gusts up to 45 mph. For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing 
  temperatures as low as 30 expected.

* WHERE...Benson, Cavalier, Eddy, Ramsey, and Towner Counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 7 PM CDT this evening. For the 
  Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 
  Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive 
  vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052-054-
060445-
/O.CON.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.FR.Y.0007.251006T0500Z-251006T1400Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Nelson-Grand
Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Western
Walsh-
Including the cities of Fosston, Halstad, Middle River, Forman,
Ada, Newfolden, Drayton, Hillsboro, Gwinner, Cavalier, Lisbon,
Red Lake Falls, Hallock, Warren, Grand Forks, East Grand Forks,
Lankin, Grafton, Valley City, Moorhead, Cooperstown, Thief River
Falls, Crookston, Finley, Fargo, Michigan, Mayville, and Roseau
333 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM 
CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with 
  gusts up to 50 mph. For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 
  33 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 7 PM CDT this evening. For the 
  Frost Advisory, from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 
  Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor 
  plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MNZ022>024-027>032-040-NDZ053-060000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Richland-
Including the cities of Lake Itasca, Wadena, Elbow Lake,
Breckenridge, Mahnomen, Two Inlets, Fergus Falls, Park Rapids,
Detroit Lakes, Wahpeton, and New York Mills
333 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest, and west 
  central Minnesota and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Rafferty

978 
WWUS73 KFGF 052046
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-060500-
/O.CAN.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.FZ.W.0001.251006T0500Z-251006T1400Z/
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-
Including the cities of Devils Lake, Cando, New Rockford,
Langdon, and Leeds
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM 
CDT MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected.

* WHERE...Benson, Cavalier, Eddy, Ramsey, and Towner Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052-054-
060500-
/O.CON.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.FR.Y.0007.251006T0500Z-251006T1400Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Nelson-Grand
Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Western
Walsh-
Including the cities of Newfolden, Grafton, Forman, Lisbon,
Middle River, Finley, Crookston, Lankin, Thief River Falls,
Warren, Ada, Gwinner, Drayton, Roseau, Fargo, Michigan, Halstad,
Cavalier, East Grand Forks, Grand Forks, Hillsboro, Valley City,
Hallock, Red Lake Falls, Cooperstown, Moorhead, Fosston, and
Mayville
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM 
CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with 
  gusts up to 50 mph. For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 
  33 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 7 PM CDT this evening. For the 
  Frost Advisory, from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 
  Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor 
  plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MNZ022>024-027>032-040-NDZ053-060000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Richland-
Including the cities of Park Rapids, Wadena, Detroit Lakes,
Mahnomen, Fergus Falls, Two Inlets, Elbow Lake, Wahpeton, New
York Mills, Lake Itasca, and Breckenridge
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest, and west 
  central Minnesota and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

DJR

078 
WWUS73 KFGF 052351
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
651 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052-054-
060800-
/O.EXP.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.FR.Y.0007.251006T0500Z-251006T1400Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Nelson-Grand
Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Western
Walsh-
Including the cities of Grand Forks, Grafton, Drayton, Cavalier,
Gwinner, Halstad, Hallock, Hillsboro, Cooperstown, Middle River,
Ada, Mayville, Warren, East Grand Forks, Crookston, Roseau,
Forman, Moorhead, Fosston, Lisbon, Lankin, Michigan, Finley, Red
Lake Falls, Newfolden, Valley City, Fargo, and Thief River Falls
651 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM 
CDT MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 28 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive 
  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MNZ022>024-027>032-040-NDZ053-060100-
/O.EXP.KFGF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-251006T0000Z/
Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Richland-
Including the cities of Wahpeton, Fergus Falls, Elbow Lake, Two
Inlets, Breckenridge, Wadena, Mahnomen, Park Rapids, Lake Itasca,
New York Mills, and Detroit Lakes
651 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

$$

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-060800-
/O.CON.KFGF.FZ.W.0001.251006T0500Z-251006T1400Z/
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-
Including the cities of Cando, Leeds, Devils Lake, Langdon, and
New Rockford
651 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM 
CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected.

* WHERE...Benson, Cavalier, Eddy, Ramsey, and Towner Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

Perroux

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1055 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
  evening and early overnight across eastern North Dakota and
  parts of northwest Minnesota.

- Rain is expected over most of northeastern North Dakota and
  far northwest Minnesota tonight into Sunday. There is a high
  chance for greater than 1 inch of rainfall across northeast
  North Dakota.

- A period of strong northwest winds arrive late Sunday morning
  through Sunday afternoon, with a 50% chance for wind gusts 45
  mph or greater over parts of the region.

- There is a chance for frost during the morning hours Monday
  through Wednesday over parts of the region.

&&

UPDATE Issued at 947 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Thunderstorms have developed over far northeastern ND into
northwestern MN. This is at the nose of the 850 mb WAA regime.
Instability remains the limiting factor for severe weather. We
will see if we can get more storms to develop as better lift
continues to overspread the region, however even with better
lift, the same instability limitations will be in place.
Therefore, the risk for severe storms seems low for the rest of
the evening/overnight period, with the more likely scenario
being small hail and lightning accompanying any storms that
form.

UPDATE
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

We are in a wait and see approach here this evening in
anticipation of thunderstorm development after sunset.
Thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along the frontal zone
after 9 PM. Otherwise updated grids to reflect current
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...Synopsis...

Broad troughing is shifting east, with diffluent SW flow over the
Northern Plains where ridging is beginning to break down. Increased
forcing will support the period of rain tonight and the shift in
pattern and arrival of several fronts is brining seasonal
temperatures back to the region early next week. NW flow should keep
main dry and seasonable temperatures in place through Tuesday night.
The larger scale pattern is a bit more complicated by mid to late
next week as either split-flow or west-southwest zonal flow
redevelops into the plains. Current forecast supports increasing
temperatures and minimal chances for precipitation, though it is a
pattern that could feature lower predictability shortwaves that
carry higher variability. While temperatures do increase above
average, based on NBM probabilities spreads they would still be
relatively mild and not as hot as this last warm up, with the 75th
percentiles in the 70s by next weekend.

...Severe threat tonight...

The initial frontal zone is expected to stall and a LLJ (40-60kt)
develops east of this frontal zone, nosing into northwest MN later
this evening/early overnight. The main corridor of elevated
instability is east of this front, while deep effective shear 30-45kt
will be in place. Corridor of concern for elevated strong/severe
storm development would be where the nose of this jet develops in
proximity to the frontal zone, with CAMs showing the timing or
isolated to scattered thunderstorms after 02Z through about 07Z.
Marginally severe hail (up to 1") would be the main concern, though
I wouldn't rule out an isolated severe wind gust to 60 mph (lower
level profiles would tend to work against a more organized severe
wind threat).

...Widespread rain tonight into Sunday...

Scattered elevated showers have already been tracking across the
Devils Lake Basin, and as the main 700 MB trough axis shifts into
our CWA tonight, deformation along that axis along with 800-700 MB
frontogenesis will help organized bands or areas of rain that would
track behind the main frontal zone over northeast ND into far
northwest MN. Soaking rain is likely across the Devils Lake Basin,
with much lighter totals farther southeast where rainfall amounts
greater than 0.25" will be more dependent on convective activity.

...Strong winds Sunday...

A secondary cold front moves into the region as the main trough
shifts east, and a period of strong CAA coincides with 4-6MB 6hr
pressure rises (strongest synoptic signal in far southeast ND and
west central MN). Mixing heights aren't great and without the bigger
push of momentum transfer from the CAA confidence is lower in
advisory wind impacts. Still, NBM shows elevated probabilities (50%+)
for 45 mph+ wind gusts and it is a pattern to monitor in the event a
wind advisory becomes needed.

...Frost potential early next week...

Seasonably cooler air arrives by Sunday night, with the 0C to -2C
850MB isotherms over our northern CWA by Monday morning, reinforced
with similar temperatures as a secondary cold frontal arrives Tuesday
morning due to a shortwave moving through northwest flow. These
temperatures aloft are typical for this time of year and under good
radiational conditions (clear skies and lighter winds) the dry
surface Tds advecting into the region should support the potential
for frost or isolated freeze during the morning hours, particularly
in more traditional cold spots. Confidence is low though on whether
we remain clear or not, as this is the type of pattern than nightly
stratus could develop and impact low temps.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Multiple aviation hazards throughout the TAF period. Initially
tonight, thunderstorms are a concern, especially at KGFK and
KTVF. Steady rain will impact visibilities at KVDL, while a low
level jet brings LLWS to KFAR and KBJI. By Sunday morning,
strong northerly winds will develop on the backside of a
northeastward propagating area of low pressure. These winds will
gust to around 40 knots, maybe even a little higher in the Red
River Valley. Rain will taper off from southwest to northeast
through the afternoon, but gusty winds will remain until after
sunset. Ceilings will rise from IFR early Sunday back to VFR by
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Rafferty

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
403 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

MNZ001-002-004>008-013>015-NDZ007-008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-
049-052-054-052115-
West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Cavalier-Pembina-
Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-
Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Western Walsh-
403 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
evening and early overnight. Hail to quarter sized is the main
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance for frost during the morning hours Monday
through Wednesday over parts of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

NDZ006-052115-
Towner-
403 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms expected tonight. The main hazard will be
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance for frost during the morning hours Monday
through Wednesday over parts of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ003-009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ053-052115-
Clay-North Beltrami-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Richland-
403 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight. The main hazard
will be lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance for frost during the morning hours Monday
through Wednesday over parts of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

MNZ006-050415-
Lake Of The Woods MN-
1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTY THROUGH 1115 PM CDT...

At 1049 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Arnesen, or 32 miles northeast of Roseau, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oak Island, Flag Island, and Garden Island State Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4933 9486 4932 9481 4929 9482 4922 9480
      4918 9479 4912 9477 4909 9475 4905 9473
      4899 9518 4900 9519 4900 9515 4919 9515
      4935 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 218DEG 35KT 4908 9514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Perroux

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1202 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

NDZ027-050530-
Grand Forks ND-
1202 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY
THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...

At 1202 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Larimore, or 24 miles west of Grand Forks, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Forks AFB, Larimore, Emerado, Gilby, Arvilla, Mekinock, and
Inkster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4819 9715 4780 9744 4784 9779 4819 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 0502Z 212DEG 30KT 4792 9759

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Perroux

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1214 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     Hail             Larimore                47.91N 97.63W
10/04/2025  M0.88 Inch       Grand Forks        ND   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
107 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NW Grand Forks        47.96N 97.13W
10/05/2025  M63 MPH          Grand Forks        ND   ASOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
123 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NW Grand Forks        47.96N 97.13W
10/05/2025  M63 MPH          Grand Forks        ND   ASOS

            Corrects previous tstm wnd gst report time
            from 4 NW Grand Forks.

&&