Tornado Warning 43, NWS Grand Forks, ND

847 
WWUS53 KFGF 060127
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
827 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

NDC077-081-060200-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0043.000000T0000Z-250806T0200Z/
Richland ND-Sargent ND-
827 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL RICHLAND AND EAST CENTRAL SARGENT COUNTIES...

At 827 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Cayuga, or 18 miles north of Veblen, moving east at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Wyndmere, Cayuga, and Hamlin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4606 9748 4615 9748 4627 9713 4611 9707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 249DEG 23KT 4612 9735 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Perroux

396 
WWUS53 KFGF 060150
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
850 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

NDC077-081-060200-
/O.EXP.KFGF.TO.W.0043.000000T0000Z-250806T0200Z/
Richland ND-Sargent ND-
850 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL RICHLAND AND EAST CENTRAL
SARGENT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4606 9748 4615 9748 4627 9713 4611 9707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 267DEG 28KT 4613 9711 

$$

Perroux

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
652 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
  especially west of the Red River. Hazards could include half
  dollar sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday across
  parts of northwest Minnesota.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday.
  Significant severe storms are possible both days, with hazards
  including large hail, significant damaging wind gusts, and
  isolated tornadoes.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Complex of thunderstorms beginning to enter southeastern ND, so
made some adjustments to POPs for current trends. There has been
a weakening trend as storms move into slightly less unstable
air, but there is still decent effective shear to work with and
could still see hail up to quarters and winds up to 70 mph as
cells move into our area. Biggest threat will likely be heavy
rain, as portions of south central ND have already seen up to 5
inches in the last few hours and storms will continue to move
slowly into southeastern ND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...Synopsis...

A mid level shortwave continues moving across the area today,
bringing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A few
severe thunderstorms are possible. This shortwave moves east
overnight, and could bring additional severe storms into northwest
Minnesota on Wednesday. An H5 upper low, situated in southern
Saskatchewan, is the main contributor of energy as the H7 waves form
along southwest flow. This will lift northeast late Wednesday with
another shortwave approaching heading into Thursday. The environment
will be quite supportive of severe thunderstorms both Thursday and
on Friday as an upper low pushes a strong theta-e gradient boundary,
and the resultant cold front, across the area. A warming trend
prevails through Thursday, with afternoon highs in the 80s Wednesday
and upper 80s to low 90s Thursday.

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Evening...

Instability continues to build into the Northern Plains this
afternoon, with a weak shortwave traversing the region from west to
east. Soundings indicate favorable shear profiles to allow a mention
of supercells, albeit with only moderate CAPE values. There is the
potential for hail up to the size of half dollars and wind gusts to
60 mph.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday...

A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms continues on Wednesday,
mainly for areas of northwest Minnesota. Hazards could include
wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters. A
lingering H7 shortwave will provide an axis of development east
of the Red River Valley in northwest Minnesota.

...Significant Severe Storms Possible Thu and Fri...

Moisture levels continue to increase Thursday and Friday, with
SBCAPE values climbing upwards of 3000-4000 J/Kg. Thursday,
soundings support the chance for significant wind as steep mid-level
lapse rates and DCAPE upwards of 1400 J/Kg have been consistent in
recent Model runs. Significant damaging wind gusts, of 75 mph or
greater, are possible along with large hail. Low to mid level shear
support at least a mention of isolated tornado potential along the
leading edge of an H7 shortwave. Most of the area could potentially
be impacted, with the best chances in northeast North Dakota and the
central Red River Valley. Heading into Friday, a cold moves closer
to the area as H5 troughing deepens in the southern Canadian Plains.
SBCAPE in some model soundings exceeds 4000 J/Kg, with a probability
of exceeding 4000 J/Kg coming in around 90 percent, especially in
the southern Red River Valley. Given the current model soundings,
all modes and all hazards are worth mentioning; however, significant
wind potential remains quite high comparatively.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

All sites currently VFR, but will see a decrease in category
along with vicinity showers and thunderstorms as a complex moves
in from south central ND in the next few hours. Best chances for
thunder and heavier rain will be in the KFAR area, but all sites
should see at least some showers. Behind the convection,
ceilings down into the MVFR to IFR range will be possible, along
with a few lingering showers at the MN airports. Some
improvement by the end of the period. Winds will be out of the
southeast with some gusts up to 20 kts at times, then shifting
more southwesterly by tomorrow at the ND airports.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
434 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-028-032-060945-
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-
Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-East Becker-Wadena-
434 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms possible today. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms overnight tonight.  Main hazard is lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is the potential for strong to severe storms Wednesday
afternoon, Thursday night and again Friday. Friday has the
potential for significant severe weather with large hail, damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ001>004-007-027-029>031-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-
039-049-052>054-060945-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-West Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-
Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-
Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh-
434 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms near
Valley City and Lisbon and a level 1 out of 5 for the remainder of
eastern North Dakota into parts of west central Minnesota. This is
for this afternoon into tonight.

The main hazards will be hail to quarters, wind gusts 60 mph and
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is the potential for strong to severe storms Wednesday
afternoon, Thursday night and again Friday. Friday has the
potential for significant severe weather with large hail, damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
807 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

NDZ049-052-053-060145-
Sargent ND-Ransom ND-Richland ND-
807 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT RANSOM...WESTERN RICHLAND AND
SARGENT COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 806 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lisbon to near Rutland to near Havana.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Lidgerwood, Forman, and Wyndmere.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4593 9774 4663 9775 4663 9699 4594 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 272DEG 23KT 4647 9763 4603 9746 4589 9759

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Perroux