Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional severe threat today, dependent on cloud cover,
  surface heating and front location. SPC has level 2 out of 5
  severe risk late this afternoon and evening RRV and MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...Synopsis...

As anticipated 850 mb low level jet kicked in and was able to
merge a couple of lines of storms into one line, with highest
threat of 70kt along I-94 from last evening to current at 0830
UTC. This line of storms and high wind potential will reach the
read 930-10z which is actually very close to what was shown by
HRRR the last few hours. Best DCAPE and MUCAPE and nose of 850
jet going from Bismarck area to Fargo by 12z.

So that part of the forecast from yesterday worked out pretty
well. Line of storms will proceed east into MN, with highest
wind threat 11z-14z into west central MN but uncertainity exists
on strength of winds by that time.

What Happens 14z Fri to 23z Fri is highly uncertain. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may well continue but surface
instability weakens considerably and also clouds hold much of
the day. How things evolve 23z Fri to 05z Sat period is when if
any storms are severe it would be then. How much clearing may
occur, can surface instability increease. HRRR which hasnt been
too bad tonight is indicating stable airmass Baudette to Thief
River Falls to Valley City north. So based on this the severe
potential is more far SE ND into west central MN. Also frontal
system antiicpated to be at 00z Baudette to Fargo and HRRR keeps
main heating south of the fcst area with a more east-northeast
wind into MN lakes country despite being ahead of the front.
Likely due to more cloud cover. Bottom line, severe threat late
aftn/evening seems to be southeast part of the fcst area from SE
ND into west central MN. If front is slower, clouds clear out
more, some chance of severe farther north and west of that maybe
to Grand Forks and Thief River Falls. Looks like severe
potential ends by 06z Sat.

Saturday and Sunday will see upper low and showers rotate around
thru Saskatchewan into western Manitoba with some chance of
showers entering into northern ND Saturday including Devils Lake
to Grafton to Roseau north.

Long range shows a chance for showers or t-storms Monday
northern areas near the border as a short wave moves southeast
into S Manitoba and NW Ontario. Otherwise though a relatively
quiet period Tues-Wed. Next upper low in our endless pattern of
lows moving into southern B.C> and Washington state is Thu-Sat
next week with a return to chances for showers and t-storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

The mature MCS bearing west to east along/near the terminal
corridor is the aviation weather focus for the late night and
morning. The system brings brief IFR with strong to severe NW
wind gusts shifting back SE in the wake. Approximate timing gets
storms the the MN border around 08Z and east of BJI around 12Z.
Predictability is lower on storm clusters farther south and
west later in the morning.

MVFR stratus is set to fill in behind the storms and within the
front/inverted trough tied to low pressure moving south of the
region. Ceiling attempts to grind up into VFR during the afternoon
with some renewed shower activity possible. NW wind follows the low
pressure system Friday night.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
336 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054-082045-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-
Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-
Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh-
336 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The potential exists for significant severe weather overnight,
with high winds being the primary threat, especially in eastern
North Dakota into the Red River Valley.

With already primed soils in some areas of southeastern ND
and west central MN, localized flooding may occur tonight due
to additional rain from thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe weather is again forecasted for Friday afternoon and
evening, with all hazards of severe weather possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ006-009-017-024-032-082045-
Lake Of The Woods-North Beltrami-South Beltrami-Hubbard-Wadena-
336 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The potential exists for severe weather overnight, with high
winds being the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe weather is again forecasted for Friday afternoon and
evening, with all hazards of severe weather possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
429 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SW Moorhead           46.85N 96.78W
08/07/2025  M68 MPH          Clay               MN   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MN098 Moorhead MN DOT.

0355 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 E Mayville            47.50N 97.26W
08/08/2025  M61 MPH          Traill             ND   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 325679 Mayville ND NDAWN.

0412 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 WNW Grand Forks       47.95N 97.18W
08/08/2025  M59 MPH          Grand Forks        ND   ASOS

            ASOS station KGFK Grand Forks AP ND.

0350 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 E Logan Center        47.80N 97.77W
08/08/2025  M58 MPH          Grand Forks        ND   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 325332 Logan Center ND
            NDAWN.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
433 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SW Moorhead           46.85N 96.78W
08/07/2025  M68 MPH          Clay               MN   Mesonet

            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gst report
            from 2 SW Moorhead. Mesonet station MN098
            Moorhead MN DOT.

&&

TT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
434 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 E Mayville            47.50N 97.26W
08/08/2025  M61 MPH          Traill             ND   Mesonet

            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gst report
            from 3 E Mayville. Mesonet station 325679
            Mayville ND NDAWN.

0412 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 WNW Grand Forks       47.95N 97.18W
08/08/2025  M59 MPH          Grand Forks        ND   ASOS

            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gst report
            from 6 WNW Grand Forks. ASOS station KGFK
            Grand Forks AP ND.

0350 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 E Logan Center        47.80N 97.77W
08/08/2025  M58 MPH          Grand Forks        ND   Mesonet

            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gst report
            from 2 E Logan Center. Mesonet station
            325332 Logan Center ND NDAWN.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
441 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S West Fargo          46.84N 96.89W
08/08/2025                   Cass               ND   Public

            A tree 4-5 inches in diameter and ~ 10 ft
            tall was reported down.

&&

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