Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
242 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a risk for isolated severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening, with lightning and wind gusts up to 60
  mph the main threat.

- Winds behind a cold front on Sunday could bring some minor
  impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper low moving through southern Canada will dig down into the
Dakotas and then MN this afternoon and tonight. This will help
push a cold front through the forecast area tonight. Another
reinforcing surge of cooler air will come down tomorrow as the
upper low center moves into the midwest, with showers lingering
through tomorrow and into Monday as the system pulls slowly into
the Great Lakes. After some brief northwesterly flow aloft, flow
starts to become more zonal with a few weak shortwaves moving
through mid-week. Another shortwave comes through over the top
of a weak ridge that tries to build in Friday and Saturday, with
periodic precipitation chances and near average temperatures.

...Marginal risk this afternoon and evening...

Cumulus field over west central MN has remained fairly benign
as more higher level clouds have increased and reduced surface
instability. Better convection out near the cold front in south
central ND where CAPE values are still around 1000 J/kg.
However, recent trends are showing the storms struggling to
maintain their updrafts with effective shear around 25 kts.
Should see some slightly better shear develop near the cold
front as it pushes into our western counties later this evening.
While do not expect widespread severe impacts, wind gusts to 60
mph will remain possible as the line of storms pushes into the
CWA this evening. We are even getting some gusts up to 50 mph in
some spots behind the cold front, so winds may continue to be
an issue further into the night. By the time the cold front
reaches our MN counties by late evening, most of the daytime
instability will be weakened and severe threat will be less.
Storms should push out of the forecast area after midnight.

...Minor wind impacts Sunday...

Westerly winds behind the cold front late tonight into tomorrow
morning will be breezy, but not out of the ordinary for the
Plains. By tomorrow, there will be some good momentum transfer
from aloft as the boundary layer mixes out, along with a
secondary push of cold air advection coming down. While the
pressure rises are not as favorable for strong winds, there
is a 70 percent chance for wind gusts over 40 mph along and west
of the Red River Valley. Will likely need a wind advisory for
at least part of our counties, but given the possibility of
thunderstorm winds tonight will hold off on any products for the
moment and let later shifts refine.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions at all the TAF sites, with gusty southwest winds
up to around 25 kts in some spots. Thunderstorms should develop
in a line along a cold front and push west to east, starting
around 20Z in the KDVL area and exiting around KBJI in the late
evening. Have VCTS in the TAFs with VFR ceilings, but could see
brief drops to MVFR with heavier rain. Winds will shift around
to the northwest behind the front, and some clearing on the
backside of the system. However, more clouds will develop in the
colder air tomorrow morning, and could be MVFR. Winds will
briefly shift back to the southwest and then west-northwest with
gusts to around 30 kts by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
255 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-082000-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
255 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be lightning and wind
gusts to 60 mph.

General storm motion...Moving toward the northeast at 35 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Sunday...Winds gusting over 40 mph along and west of the Red River
Valley

Wednesday and Thursday...Strong Thunderstorm Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

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