Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
308 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Key Messages:

    - Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms expected
      through the evening with main threats being gusty winds (50
      mph), frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and small hail.

    - Cooler and cloudier conditions tomorrow as wedge builds in overnight.
      Highs in the low to mid 80s across much of the area.

	- Slight risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow across central
   	  Georgia and NE Georgia.

Discussion:

Current radar shows widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the area which are expected to continue through the evening
before tapering off after sundown. Current environment shows 2500-
3000 J/kg of sfc based CAPE with near zero shear which is
contributing to the slow storm motions on these storms so far.
With the environment space here despite the marginal risk we are
not expecting a severe setup. Our main concerns will be gusty
winds (50mph), frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. With PWATs
in the 2.2" range and little to no shear, the heavy rainfall may
pose a flash flooding risk today so definitely keeping an eye on
that this evening especially in the area of the front as it sags
southward. the front is currently just north of the metro and is
expected to continue to sag southward through the evening but
overall is very slow moving. This front will be a factor into our
flooding risk into the long term as well with where it sets up.

Overnight should start to see the wedge build in from the northeast
as winds turn easterly and low clouds push into the area. Currently
the wedge is forecast to reach south of the metro and result in
showers tomorrow evening. Uncertainty remains with thunderstorms
tomorrow currently. CAMs are notorious for not handling the wedge
well and thus are trying to indicate thunderstorms over the area.
This will be highly dependent on where the boundary sets up though.
Should it push past the metro we are unlikely to see
thunderstorms as the area will remain stable. Should the wedge not
push as far as forecasted then we could see more thunderstorm
development into western GA and towards the I-75 corridor.
Currently though confidence is that thunderstorms will be limited
in development tomorrow and showers will be the main weather type.
High temps tomorrow either way look to top out in the low to mid
80s for much of the area (low to mid 70s for the mountains). This
should aid in relief from the unpleasantly warm temperatures
we've been experiencing.

When it comes to flooding potential tomorrow, where the front sets
up will play a large factor. Currently it is forecasted to setup
over central Georgia which will allow for increase QPF amounts that
could lead to flash flooding in this increased PWAT environment.
WPC has currently outlooked this area is a slight risk for
excessive rainfall as well as a slight risk over the northeast
portions of our area. This area could also see increased rainfall
amounts with interactions from the wedge front possible. Current
amounts are ~1- 1.5 inches but should we see rainfall train over
this area could see flooding issues with the terrain influences.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Key Messages:

    - Sweet relief, temperatures this weekend below normal with
highs reaching only the low to mid 80s. Lows in the 60s possible.

    - Shower and thunderstorm chances high nearly every day, peaking
each afternoon.

    - Widespread precipitation amounts through Thursday could reach
3-4" with more isolated amounts of 6"+ posing a flood risk.

Some very much welcomed relief this weekend as the cold front
settles somewhere over central Georgia. High temperatures will
likely struggle to get much higher than 80 north of the front.
Areas south of the front will see temps up into the mid 80s. Lows
will be moderated by moist conditions and widespread precipitation
chances, however we could still see the first 60s some time.

Precipitation chances will be high for this time of year, driven by
the developed wedge. While thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon, the main concern will be precipitation potential through
Thursday. Some of the ingredients in play include >2.00" PWATs, a
strong wedge signal, and several shortwave troughs rounding the
ridge over Texas. CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/Kg across central
Georgia may allow for a few thunderstorms and more efficient rain
makers.

The main uncertainty with this set up will be two fold. One, where
does the front settle this weekend? Greatest precipitation totals
will be in and along the frontal boundary. And two, are the
shortwave troughs strong enough to drive into Georgia in spite of
the the wedge system. Both factors will be compoundary to each other
with shortwaves potentially flexing the surface boundary northward
with stronger southerly flow and increased moisture
convergence/transport with increased mid level southerly flow. Some
ensemble members develop stronger mid-low level flow over Georgia
from the shortwave driving into the ridge to our east, which will
need to be watched closely for a corridor of precipitation
enhancement.

Resolution of the CAD feature this weekend will likely be poorly
represented by global or low-res models, so clarity will come with
CAMs as they come into range. Currently, forecast QPF values through
Wednesday morning sit at a widespread 3-4" south of I20 (1-3" to the
north). 90th percent QPF appears to be overblown by some edge cases
and well outside the normal distribution. However, slow storm
motion, the potential for mid level isentropic lift, and the
prolonged period of interest means localized precipitation amounts
through Thursday could reach 6-8". Will continue to closely monitor
the precipitation potential as higher resolution models resolve the
wedge better.
SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the area with
coverage expected to increase and continue into the evening.
Should begin to taper off after 00z. Expecting the wedge to begin
to push into the area ~07z with winds beginning to turn eastward
and then low clouds settling in ~09z. Clouds should remain in the
IFR range through the 14-15z time frame before lifting to MVFR
with the potential for showers tomorrow evening. TSRA is very low
confidence at this time due to the wedge conditions.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on IFR and thunderstorms this evening. Low
confidence on TSRA chances tomorrow.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  78  66  75 /  50  70  70  60
Atlanta         73  82  69  76 /  50  80  80  70
Blairsville     66  76  62  71 /  40  70  70  70
Cartersville    72  83  69  79 /  30  70  70  70
Columbus        75  89  72  81 /  50  80  80  70
Gainesville     71  78  67  74 /  50  60  70  60
Macon           74  86  71  79 /  50  80  80  70
Rome            70  85  69  80 /  20  80  70  70
Peachtree City  71  84  69  77 /  40  80  80  70
Vidalia         74  88  71  80 /  50  80  80  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ039-049>051-
059>062-071>076-080>086-093>098-105>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Hernandez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
206 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021815-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
206 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Hot weather continues today with heat indices values near 105
degrees across east central Georgia. A Heat Advisory remains in
place through 8 PM.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
through 1 AM. An isolated strong to severe storm or two could
develop this afternoon with wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range
and periods of heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected each afternoon and evening through Thursday. Persistent
rainfall through next week could pose a flooding threat,
particularly in central Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS.

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