Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
220 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Key Messages:

 - A Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday afternoon in eastern
Georgia.

 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be more widespread on
Monday, especially in western Georgia.

Heat Concerns Monday Afternoon:

A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of eastern Georgia
where we anticipated heat indices over 105 degrees for several hours
on Monday afternoon. Our going temperature forecast for the region
features a blend of the NBM guidance and CAMs. The deviation from
the base NBM guidance was applied to the forecast to account for a
consistent high bias in the NBM surface dewpoints. This blend
lowered our dewpoint forecast for Monday afternoon and should better
account for expected boundary layer mixing. The adjustments however
do not lower the humidity enough to keep the heat and humidity
forecast from being oppressive. Widespread highs in the 90s and heat
indices between 100 and 109 degree are expected. Some relief from
the heat may arrive in the form of afternoon thunderstorms. This
potential kept us from expanding the Heat Advisory further in
central Georgia.

Thunderstorms Potential through Monday:

Hot and humid conditions and the positioning of the upper level
ridge over Louisiana will set Georgia up for scattered thunderstorms
on Monday. Western Georgia should have be best combination of
heating, moisture and subsequent instability, and will be favored
for the most widespread storm activity. Storms will however be
possible anywhere in the state between noon and 10 PM. Limited shear
and poor mid level lapse rates should keep the severe weather threat
isolated, with the main concern being localized downburst winds.
There is currently a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) from the SPC for
northern Georgia. Later forecasts may consider expanding this into
central and western Georgia due in part to the potential for greater
storm coverage in this area. Hourly rain rates may be high (2-3
inches per hour) at times, but northwesterly flow (5 to 15 knots up
to 600 mb) should keep storms moving. Thus any flooding threat would
be dependent on storms training over the same area.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Key Messages:

    - Hot and humid conditions will persist on Tuesday with possible
      Heat Advisory needed for portions of the area.

    - A weak front will bring scattered to widespread showers and
      thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. Scattered diurnal
      convection will remain possible through the extended.

To start the forecast period on Tuesday, a midlevel ridge will
remain centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley, extending
eastward across the Southeast. Meanwhile, at the surface a weak
summer CAD wedge will be building southwestward from the Mid-
Atlantic into the Carolinas, sending a backdoor cold front toward
the forecast area. This front will interact with deep tropical
moisture in place characterized by anomalously high PWATs over 2" to
as high as 2.5". Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
thus expected Tuesday afternoon and evening, some of which would
bring a risk for locally heavy rainfall given the environment. For
areas between showers and thunderstorms, afternoon heat index values
still appear likely to exceed 100 for the bulk of the area and 105
for portions of Middle Georgia where additional Heat Advisory
issuance could be necessary.

By Wednesday, some degree of drier air may work into north Georgia
in the wake of this front, though the depth and duration of this
drier airmass remains a bit unclear. While more numerous showers and
thunderstorms will likely be focused southward into Middle/South
Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, sufficient moisture is likely to
remain in place across the remainder of the area for at least
scattered PoPs. Still, temperatures/dewpoints should drop just
enough to keep the area free of Heat Advisory level apparent
temperatures.

By late week, deeper moisture looks to spread back northward as a
weak area of low pressure pushes westward along the northern Gulf
Coast. While no direct impacts from this low pressure area are
anticipated, scattered diurnal convection can be expected.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Isolated thunderstorms will remain the main aviation concern in
north and central Georgia through 01Z Monday. Storms will return
and be more widespread between 16Z Monday and 02Z Tuesday. Impacts
are possible to the TAF sites during both periods. Winds will
continue to be from the northwest (270-320 degrees) at 3 to 12
kt, with occasional gusts near 20 mph. Patchy low clouds or fog
are possible between 08Z and 14Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence in thunderstorms before 01Z Monday.
Moderate confidence in thunderstorms between 17Z and 22Z Monday.
High confidence in wind speeds and direction through Monday.
Moderate confidence in the ceiling forecast.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          76  97  75  95 /  10  20  10  60
Atlanta         76  94  77  96 /  10  30  10  50
Blairsville     68  89  67  88 /  10  40  10  70
Cartersville    73  94  73  96 /  10  40  10  50
Columbus        77  96  77  98 /  10  30  10  50
Gainesville     76  95  75  94 /  10  30  10  50
Macon           76  96  76  97 /  10  30  10  60
Rome            73  94  73  95 /  10  40  10  40
Peachtree City  74  94  74  96 /  10  30  10  50
Vidalia         78  97  77  96 /  20  40  20  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ024-025-027-
035>039-047>051-058>062-071>076-081>086-094>098-107-109>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Albright