Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
240 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Key Messages:

- Summertime heat will persist with Heat Index values between 95F
and 105F (possibly higher Sunday into early next week).

- Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms
(best chances over west-central and far north GA.

The forecast area is currently influenced by an upper level ridge
that is off the east Florida coast, north of the Bahamas. The ridge
extends into eastern/central GA but is breaking down across north GA
as a trough kicks east from the Central Plains. Remnants of a
tropical disturbance from earlier in the week along the northern
Gulf coast are spreading across east TX and west LA. Any convection
we see through this evening will be driven mainly by daytime heating
and weak post-storm outflow boundaries with no real forcing or
support for organized activity across the area.

Similar pattern will exist into Saturday with just a touch more
coverage of showers/storms possible across north GA as a weak upr
trough kicks east across the central Appalachians. The low-to-mid
lvl flow increases just enough to support a few stronger storms
during the afternoon/evening with locally heavy rain and brief gusty
winds.

Temperatures will continue to be warm, running at or just a few
degrees above normal for this time of year. Despite this, the
persistent heat will continue to be a concern with heat index values
topping 100F across a good portion of the area, especially south and
east of I-85.

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Key Messages:

    - Muggy, hot conditions will remain a concern late weekend into
      early next week. Heat Advisories will likely be needed for
      portions of the area Sunday-Tuesday.

    - Mainly isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected
      over the weekend. Coverage will trend upward by Monday-
      Wednesday as a backdoor front looks to push into the area.

The midlevel subtropical ridge will be parked over the Southeast at
the onset of the long term period with hot temperatures being the
result. Humid conditions courtesy of abundant low-level moisture
will cause heat index values to be maximized during this Sunday-
Tuesday time frame with Monday continuing to favor the hottest
values. As such, Heat Advisory issuance is likely for at least
portions of the area where heat index values over 105 are forecast
with the highest probabilities across east-central Georgia, though
some areas farther north and west could reach criteria on Monday.

Diurnal PoPs will remain fairly limited (isolated to low-end chance
for most) on Sunday with highest across far north Georgia. By Monday
into Tuesday, PoPs should trend upward as a bit of a pattern change
begins to take hold. As a trough pushes through New England on
Monday, a backdoor cold front will begin progressing southwestward
across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas. Deep moisture ahead
of this front will provide plenty of fuel for diurnally-enhanced
showers and storms with coverage likely being maximized by Tuesday
as the front nudges into the CWA. While there does still remain
model uncertainty regarding the progression of this "wedge" front by
Tuesday into Wednesday, there is fairly good agreement that it will
clear farther across the forecast area. Some degree of drier air
thus may filter into the area by Wednesday into Thursday, which
would affect the areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms (as
well as afternoon heat index values). At this point, PoPs remain in
the chance range with highest probabilities shunting farther
southward by this time.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

SCT-BKN CU field developing nicely across the area but VFR
conditions prevail. A few showers exist near the AL/GA state-line
with deeper convection across much of central and south Alabama.
Some of this is likely to expand north/east throughout the
afternoon and early evening but heating remains the primary
trigger, so expect a decrease in activity after sunset.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on convection/storms and ceilings.
High all other elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  95  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
Atlanta         75  94  75  93 /  20  30  10  30
Blairsville     67  86  69  88 /  40  60  40  50
Cartersville    73  92  73  93 /  30  40  20  40
Columbus        74  95  75  96 /  10  20  10  20
Gainesville     74  93  75  93 /  30  40  20  30
Macon           74  96  76  96 /  10  10  10  20
Rome            73  91  73  92 /  30  50  20  40
Peachtree City  71  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  30
Vidalia         76  96  77  98 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DJN.83

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1147 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1147 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. A couple storms may have gusty winds, heavy rainfall,
and frequent lightning.

Heat index values will range from 100 to 104 degrees across
portions of north and central Georgia this afternoon and early
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday through Thursday,
mainly in the afternoons and evenings. The potential for organized
severe weather remains low, but heavy rainfall and localized
flooding will be possible.

Heat index values will range from 100 to 108 degrees, possibly
higher, across portions of north and central Georgia each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
420 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

GAZ078-089-182045-
Harris GA-Muscogee GA-
420 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Muscogee and central Harris Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 420 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Goat Rock Lake, or
near Smiths, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Pine Mountain, Waverly Hall, Bibb City, Goat Rock Lake,
Ellerslie, Laurel Hills, Green Island Hills, Cataula, Mountain Hill,
Fortson, Pine Mountain Valley, Mulberry Grove, and Lake Harding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3266 8509 3268 8510 3286 8491 3279 8476
      3265 8471 3249 8499 3252 8501 3258 8507
      3262 8509 3263 8508 3264 8510 3264 8511
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 230DEG 17KT 3261 8503

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Culver