Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
802 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Key Messages:

    - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
      thunderstorms will be the primary concern.

    - Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal averages.

Current radar loop shows some isolated thunderstorms beginning to
develop over east central GA and east central AL. Like yesterday,
convection is taking a bit longer get started because the area
was so worked over from yesterdays activity (Kind of a recurring
theme). Ample instability is again developing across the area with
MLCAPE values on the order of 1000-2500 J/kg and ML Lapse Rates
around 6 to 6.5. This will be be sufficient support for at least a
few severe thunderstorms with a primary risk for strong downburst
wind gusts as well as a few instances of hail up to size of dime
to quarter size. Any storms that develop could persist into the
late evening.

On Sat, little change in the overall pattern and environment is
expected. With the area remaining in southwest flow around the
periphery of the western Atlantic high, diurnally driven
convection is again expected. Also, strong to severe isolated
thunderstorms will again be possible.

As for temperatures, forecast highs Friday should be a degree to
two below Todays highs for most of the area. It will still be hot
with heat index values peaking in the 95 to 100 range for portions
of north and central GA.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Key Messages:

  - Very moist forecast, with diurnally driven convection every day.

  - Severe not anticipated at this time, but some uncertainty.

Forecast:

Few overall changes to the forecast this afternoon for the long
term. Next week still looks to be pretty moist with copious
chances for diurnally driven afternoon convection. The upper level
low over the Southeast currently continues to spin in place and
fill through the weekend, providing continued lift. Repeated
rounds of convection through the weekend will do a number on lapse
rates, which should limit the overall severe threat Sunday into
Monday, but with plenty of moisture around and summer heating,
can't rule out a storm or two getting a little bit feisty.
Ensembles have pretty good consensus through this time period,
though one potential "gotcha" for the models will be recovery of
the atmosphere from day to day, where a particularly robust day of
convection may act to limit things a bit more on the next day,
especially given the lack of upper level winds to advect latent
heating due to convection.

Today into Saturday, we will see the TUTT positioned out over the
Atlantic undergo a pretty big squeeze thanks to anticyclonic
rossby wave breaks occurring upstream of it. This will pinch off
another upper level piece of the PV streamer that will develop
into a cyclonically spinning upper level low that will retrograde
towards the SE coastline by Monday. This system creates a point of
uncertainty (and least with today's runs) within the ensembles,
with the Euro suite being a bit more aggressive with pulling it
into the SE, and the GFS suite keeping it to the east off the
coastline. By Tuesday, a shortwave will move within the upper
level jet across the US/Canadian border and drive a quick moving
surface low that will drive a front towards the area on Tuesday
into Wednesday that should stall before reaching the CWA. This
system will bring moisture streaming into the area causing rain
chances on Tuesday to increase even more than the previous days.
Severe chances may be dependent on the position of the
aforementioned upper level low - if it has moved over the area, it
will not only aid in lift, but may bring some enhanced lapse
rates through cooling aloft. Will need to keep an eye on this time
period.

Otherwise, temperatures will likely be modulated through the
longterm by copious surface moisture and afternoon
convection/cloud cover. Highs start in the low 90s and sink into
the 80s by the middle of next week. High Td's hovering in the 70s
will keep overnight lows elevated to the lower 70s.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Convection has congealed across much of Atlanta within the 285
perimeter, with SHRA and TSRA (some with GR) occurring at all four
Atlanta area TAF sites. Outflow from the storms have led to VRB
winds sustained as high as 25 kts and gusts up to 35 kts.
Mid-/upper-level clouds will stick around overnight, with patchy
low-level clouds and FG/BR possible. Winds will go light/VRB to
calm overnight.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on evolution of convection this evening.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  92  70  92 /  30  50  20  30
Atlanta         71  91  71  90 /  30  50  20  40
Blairsville     64  85  65  86 /  40  60  20  60
Cartersville    68  91  70  90 /  30  50  20  50
Columbus        71  92  72  92 /  20  50  20  50
Gainesville     70  90  70  90 /  30  50  20  40
Macon           71  92  70  92 /  30  50  20  50
Rome            69  90  70  89 /  30  50  20  50
Peachtree City  68  91  69  90 /  30  50  20  40
Vidalia         72  92  73  92 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Martin

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