Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are still ongoing across
portions of central Georgia but will continue to decrease in
activity following sunset. We could see another round of shower
and non-severe thunderstorm activity across far northern GA late
in the overnight to early morning hours, but otherwise it will be
a mostly quiet and humid night across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Key Messages:

	- Continued Scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms with
      the main threats being gusty winds and frequent lightning.

	- Saturated soils and waves of rainfall leading to an increased
      risk for localized flooding.

Current radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms developing across
the area this afternoon. We have been in this moist diurnally driven
pattern for a while now but it does appear we will see somewhat drier
air move in for the end of the week.

High pressure centered off the GA/FL coast continues to keep the
area in moist southwesterly flow and that will continue through the
short term forecast. This flow is keeping increased precip chances
across the area as diurnally driven convection pops up each
afternoon. Storms for the most part should remain sub severe this
evening but would not surprise me if an isolated storm or two breaks
into severe thresholds.

Thursday begins the transition day where we finally start to push
out of this pattern we've been stuck in the past week. The high
pressure ridge pushes eastward while the upper level troughing
pushes also pushes eastward into MS/AL through Thursday. This will
allow for a surface frontal boundary to push into NW GA early Thu
morning and settle in somewhere across central/south GA Thu night
into Fri. Currently SPC has outlined most of north and central
Georgia in a marginal risk and would not be surprised if some of that
area gets upgraded to slight risk. The models are still showing the
better instability and energy moving across the Carolinas and the
Mid Atlantic states Thu which is where the slight risk area is
currently. This boundary will serve as the main driving force for
convection Thu afternoon/evening with modest shear and cape values
to support this setup. Isolated damaging wind, Periods of heavy
rain, frequent lightning strikes, and maybe some hail will be your
biggest threats with the storms expected Thu.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Key Messages:

	- Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening
      each day across portions of north and central Georgia.

    - Increasing temperatures and heat index values this weekend
      into next week.

The long term period will bring an expansive mid-/upper-level ridge
across much of the eastern CONUS. Easterly low-level flow and
surface flow (albeit weak) off of the Atlantic will keep enough
moisture entrenched beneath the ridge to support isolated showers
and storms in the afternoon/evening each day. Ensemble guidance
suggests that convection will be relegated to central Georgia on
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday -- where moisture will pool along a
diffuse boundary left over from the passage of a front late Thursday
into early Friday. The SREF indicates increasing PWATs across the
state Monday and Tuesday as tropical moisture moves in, which
suggests that isolated showers and storms will be possible across
north Georgia as well as central Georgia. Subsidence due to the
ridge aloft will keep a lid on storms, thus hindering strong to
severe convection. As always during the summer months, a strong
storm or two each day with frequent lightning and heavy rainfall
will be possible.

Moisture trapped under the aforementioned "heat dome" will mean
that our high temperatures in the low 90s to mid-90s will feel
more like the upper 90s to mid-100s. Portions of central Georgia
will have heat index values of 100-103 degrees on Friday and
Saturday, with values increasing to 103-105 degrees on Sunday. As
the forecast stands now, will need to monitor Monday and Tuesday
especially for potential Heat Advisory issuances, as more of north
and central Georgia will see values as high as 105-106 degrees.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all sites to start the 00Z TAF period
with convective activity decreasing. VFR conditions expected to
continue overnight, with potential for a brief period of SCT-BKN
MVFR CIGs (010-020) in the 10-14Z timeframe Thu AM. Another round
of PROB30 TSRA for Thu PM. Winds generally W-SW at 5-10 kts or
less through the period.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence in Thu AM CIGs. High on all other elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  68  90 /  20  60  20  10
Atlanta         72  88  71  90 /  20  60  20  10
Blairsville     65  82  62  84 /  30  70  10   0
Cartersville    70  87  67  89 /  40  70  10   0
Columbus        72  92  73  94 /  20  50  20  20
Gainesville     71  87  68  89 /  20  70  10   0
Macon           72  92  71  93 /  10  40  20  20
Rome            70  86  67  89 /  30  80  10   0
Peachtree City  70  89  68  91 /  20  60  20  10
Vidalia         75  93  74  94 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...Culver

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
738 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-192345-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
738 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms through midnight across southern portions
of central GA. The main hazards will be gusty winds and frequent
lightning. There is potential for localized flooding with any
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of
north and central Georgia each day through early next week.
Potential will be greatest during the afternoons and evenings. A
few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday. Otherwise, the
risk for widespread severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
640 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Youth              33.78N 83.87W
06/17/2025                   Walton             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree and wires down near the intersection of
            Gum Creek Church Road and Center Hill Church
            Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
732 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

GAZ048-057>059-190000-
Butts GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-Henry GA-
732 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Henry,
Butts, northwestern Jasper and southern Newton Counties through 800
PM EDT...

At 732 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Stark, or near Jackson,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Locust Grove, Flovilla, Mansfield, Jenkinsburg, Stewart,
Turtle Cove, Worthville, Calvin, Eudora, North Alcovy, Indian Springs
State Park, Fincherville, Stark, Rocky Plains, and McKibben.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3355 8392 3352 8374 3337 8367 3320 8396
      3333 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 223DEG 14KT 3335 8394

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
733 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

GAZ106-108-190000-
Crisp GA-Wilcox GA-
733 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Wilcox and
eastern Crisp Counties through 800 PM EDT...

At 733 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Doles to near Arp, and moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cordele, Rochelle, Arabi, Pitts, East Crisp, Browning, Double Run,
Wenona, Antioch Church, Owensboro, Seville, and Hatley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 8384 3182 8385 3184 8386 3184 8389
      3198 8378 3193 8323 3190 8320 3185 8325
      3185 8361 3180 8361 3180 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 226DEG 17KT 3177 8386 3175 8344

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
759 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

GAZ105-106-108-109-190030-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-
759 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Dodge,
Wilcox, southeastern Dooly and Crisp Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 759 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Browning to Cordele, and moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cordele, Abbeville, Rochelle, Arabi, Pineview, Rhine, Pitts, East
Crisp, Cedar Creek, Antioch Church, Pope City, Seville, Hatley,
Browning, Five Points, Pleasant View, Tippettville, Double Run,
Tremont, and Wenona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 8383 3183 8384 3182 8385 3184 8386
      3184 8389 3211 8372 3208 8311 3184 8323
      3185 8361 3180 8361 3180 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 200DEG 22KT 3190 8329 3193 8375

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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