Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Key Messages:

  - Southwesterly flow continues through the weekend with diurnally
driven convection each afternoon and evening. Strong thunderstorms
will be possible, with frequent lightning and gusty winds being the
main threats.

  - Localized flooding risk increases through the weekend with
numerous showers and thunderstorms and saturated soils.

The region remains situated between a weak Bermuda high to the east
and troughing to the west extending towards the Lower Mississippi
River Valley. As a result, a southwesterly flow pattern persists
over Georgia as the forecast period begins, which continues to bring
warm, moist air from the Gulf into the forecast area. As a result,
dewpoints will remain in the low 70s in north Georgia and mid 70s in
central Georgia and precipitable water values will remain largely
between 1.7 and 2.2 inches. As low clouds from earlier this morning
have scattered out and temperatures rise, diurnally driven
convection has begun, with numerous showers and thunderstorms
ongoing in east-central Georgia (with enhancement from the sea
breeze) and scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. With
SBCAPE anticipated to increase to between 2500-3500 J/kg, the
coverage of storms is expected to increase through the late
afternoon hours.

As the aforementioned trough moves northeast, hi-res guidance
continues to indicate modest 0-1 km shear and loosely organized
convective clusters in Tennessee/north Alabama advancing into north
Georgia this evening into tonight. A few storms this afternoon
through tonight will have the potential to become strong to severe.
With DCAPE values between 600-1000 J/kg and deep atmospheric
moisture contributing to precip-loading in storm downdrafts,
stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty, damaging winds.
Furthermore, all storms will contain frequent lightning, which could
pose a threat to outdoor activities this afternoon and evening.
Finally, as the wet southwesterly flow pattern continues, antecedent
soil conditions are becoming more saturated in locations that have
seen heavy rainfall accumulations over the course of several days.
With high PWATs, stronger storms will be efficient rainfall
producers, which could lead to localized flooding concerns
considering saturated soils.

Patchy fog and low cloud ceilings will likely during the overnight
and early morning hours on Sunday, particularly in locations where
soils are saturated from previous rainfall and cloud cover
dissipates. The trough axis will lift northeast of Georgia over the
course of the day on Sunday, though little to no change will occur
in the southwesterly flow regime as the trough is absorbed into the
main flow. Convection on Sunday will be diurnally-driven once again,
this time with the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms
being focused across north Georgia closest to the base of the
trough. Once again, a few storms will have the potential of becoming
strong, capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
heavy rain. Considering the chances for showers and thunderstorms
each day and the associated cloud cover, high temperatures will run
near normal for mid-June today and Sunday, in the 80s across the
majority of the area. Low temperatures will closely reflect
dewpoints, and range from 3-7 degrees above daily normals.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Key Messages

    - The persistent diurnally-enhanced stormy weather pattern will
      linger through the bulk of the week.

    - Locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day.

    - The forecast may take a turn toward drier, hotter conditions
      by next weekend.

Our wet and stormy pattern will remain in place through the coming
work week. PoPs will remain elevated above climatological
normals with scattered to widespread diurnally-enhanced convection
each day. This stormier weather comes to us courtesy of a persistent
trough situated in between areas of high pressure over the
western Atlantic and extending eastward from the Southwest US. Deep
moisture will continue to extend across the local area within
southwest flow aloft, keeping PWATs elevated in the 1.5 - 2" range.
Given this very moist environment, locally heavy rainfall will
remain a general concern each day. While widespread flash flooding
issues are not anticipated, training or slow-moving thunderstorms
could lead to localized street flooding and/or flash flooding
potential. Fortunately, despite June afternoon/evening SBCAPE
of 1500-3000 J/kg, little in the way of shear will limit any
widespread severe potential. Still, localized strong downburst winds
will be possible in the more intense storms each afternoon and
evening.

While this aforementioned pattern more or less hangs strong through
the end of the week, signs of change are potentially in the offing
by next weekend. There is broad ensemble support for intensifying
midlevel ridging over the eastern US, potentially bringing lower
rain chances but also hotter temperatures by the end of the forecast
period next weekend.

Temperatures will be on a gradual upward trend through the week.
Highs will initially be primarily in the upper 80s across north
Georgia and low 90s in Middle Georgia early week. Probabilities for
highs in the lower 90s in north Georgia to the mid 90s in Middle
Georgia will then increase by late week. Given persistent low-to-mid
70s dewpoints, heat index values will tack on a couple of degrees to
the air temperature, though these are forecast to remain below
Advisory criteria at this point. Lows will remain in the low 70s for
most.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Chance for lingering -TSRA impacts at ATL thru 01Z tonight. A pd
of IFR (and perhaps LIFR) cigs is psbl between 09-14Z for northern
TAF sites, and cannot rule out some low-VFR to MVFR vsbys in
tandem. Beyond that, primarily SCT-BKN low VFR to MVFR cigs exp
thru the pd. Best chances for -TSRA on Sunday aftn between 20-01Z
areawide, but may extend further after sunset depending on where
initiation occurs. Winds may go briefly light out of the E
following -TSRA this evening before returning to the SW/WSW at
5-8kts thru the remainder of the pd.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  87  70  88 /  50  50  20  60
Atlanta         70  86  71  87 /  50  50  30  70
Blairsville     64  81  64  81 /  70  70  20  80
Cartersville    68  87  69  87 /  70  50  30  70
Columbus        70  88  71  89 /  30  50  30  70
Gainesville     69  85  70  86 /  50  60  20  70
Macon           70  89  72  89 /  30  60  20  70
Rome            69  86  69  86 /  70  60  30  80
Peachtree City  68  87  69  87 /  40  50  30  70
Vidalia         72  91  73  92 /  30  50  20  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
233 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
233 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. The main threats will be gusty winds and frequent
lightning. There also remains a chance for localized flooding with
any heavier rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Daily thunderstorm activity will occur this weekend and next
week. Storm chances will be highest during the afternoon and
evening hours each day. While the risk of severe weather is low, a
couple of stronger storms are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
747 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

GAZ053>057-067-150015-
Fayette GA-Clayton GA-Coweta GA-Spalding GA-Meriwether GA-Henry GA-
747 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Spalding,
Fayette, northeastern Meriwether, west central Henry, southeastern
Coweta and southern Clayton Counties through 815 PM EDT...

At 747 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Riverdale to near Haralson, and moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Peachtree City, Riverdale, Hampton, Lovejoy,
Senoia, Luthersville, Brooks, Sharpsburg, Turin, Haralson, Woolsey,
Starrs Mill, Birdie, Vaughn, Inman, Bonanza, Digbey, and Atlanta
Motor Speedway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3355 8448 3355 8444 3354 8444 3349 8422
      3325 8437 3321 8443 3320 8447 3317 8451
      3322 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 281DEG 27KT 3358 8444 3324 8463

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
805 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

GAZ058-059-070-071-150030-
Butts GA-Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Jasper GA-
805 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Monroe, southern Butts, southern Jasper and northeastern Lamar
Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 805 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Indian Springs State
Park, or near Jackson, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain. Flooding may develop if rainfall continues.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Monticello, Flovilla, High Falls State Park, Blount,
McElheneys Crossroads, Berner, McKibben, Indian Springs State Park,
and Adgateville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3314 8400 3320 8410 3328 8406 3332 8368
      3325 8359 3316 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 270DEG 8KT 3322 8392

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
808 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

GAZ052-053-150045-
Coweta GA-Heard GA-
808 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Heard
and southern Coweta Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 808 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Corinth, or 10 miles
southeast of Franklin, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Newnan, Grantville, Moreland, Sharpsburg, East Newnan, and Corinth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3333 8498 3340 8461 3339 8461 3326 8471
      3328 8474 3322 8492 3322 8494 3319 8503
      3318 8505 3318 8506 3317 8507 3317 8509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 232DEG 11KT 3320 8495

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
812 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

GAZ034-045>048-055-057-150045-
Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-Newton GA-
Henry GA-
812 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Rockdale,
southeastern DeKalb, southeastern Gwinnett, Henry, west central
Walton, eastern Clayton and northwestern Newton Counties through 845
PM EDT...

At 812 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Stone Mountain to Atlanta Motor Speedway, and
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
McDonough, Conyers, Stockbridge, Snellville, Lilburn, Loganville,
Hampton, Lovejoy, Stone Mountain, Locust Grove, Lithonia, Walnut
Grove, Lakeview Estates, Georgia International Horse Park, Mountain
Park, Lake Spivey, Blacksville, Rex, Ola, and Belmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 8414 3384 8388 3375 8384 3336 8402
      3336 8403 3334 8403 3331 8406 3332 8407
      3330 8407 3330 8411 3332 8415 3334 8415
      3334 8425 3335 8425 3335 8430 3337 8439
      3339 8440
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 272DEG 24KT 3380 8408 3338 8432

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
822 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

GAZ053>056-058-068-070-150045-
Butts GA-Fayette GA-Lamar GA-Clayton GA-Coweta GA-Spalding GA-
Pike GA-
822 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Spalding, southern
Fayette, northeastern Pike, southwestern Butts, east central Coweta,
southern Clayton and northern Lamar Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 822 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Griffin, moving east at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Griffin, Peachtree City, Senoia, Milner, Jenkinsburg, Sharpsburg,
Turin, Orchard Hill, Meansville, Woolsey, Sunny Side, East Griffin,
Highland Mills, Towalaga, Starrs Mill, Experiment, Walker Mill,
Birdie, Inman, and Chappel Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 8461 3338 8435 3335 8435 3335 8425
      3334 8425 3334 8415 3332 8415 3330 8411
      3330 8407 3332 8407 3331 8406 3334 8403
      3320 8410 3316 8404 3313 8404 3304 8432
      3324 8431 3333 8446 3329 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 256DEG 33KT 3325 8427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
829 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

GAZ067>069-150100-
Upson GA-Meriwether GA-Pike GA-
829 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Meriwether, southwestern Pike and northwestern Upson Counties through
900 PM EDT...

At 829 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Woodbury, or 11 miles
southeast of Greenville, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Thomaston, Manchester, Woodbury, Warm Springs, Sunset Village, Crest,
Raleigh, Sunnyside, Atwater, and Hannahs Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8472 3303 8432 3289 8434 3288 8449
      3288 8451 3286 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 256DEG 40KT 3295 8455

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH