Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
215 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

Key Messages:

 - Isolated severe thunderstorms possible in Central Georgia
   through this evening.

 - Cool, cloudy, and rainy weather continues through the weekend.

Weather Pattern through Sunday:

The weather pattern this weekend will be dominated by a closed
upper level low remaining nearly stationary over Louisiana. Strong
southerly flow downstream of the low will continuously send a
plume of Gulf moisture over Georgia. A series of weak shortwaves
embedded in the moist flow wrapping around the low will provide
enough lift to enhance rainfall and thunderstorm activity. One of
these waves will pass through later on this afternoon, with
another notable wave Sunday afternoon. Simply put, the overall
setup will lead to a dreary weekend across the area, with mostly
cloudy skies, periods of rain, and breezy easterly winds. High
temperatures will be much cooler than normal, struggling to climb
out of the 60s each day, especially where there are no breaks in
the clouds. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Expected Rainfall & Flooding Concerns:

Rainfall totals from the first wave of activity this morning were
generally around 0.5-1 inch or less. Additional rainfall amounts
through Sunday are expected to be around 1 to 2 inches, with a
reasonable worst case of up to 4 inches in localized areas of
central Georgia where there is a better chance for thunderstorms.
These rainfall amounts will be more of a nuisance for weekend
activities than a flooding risk given the dry conditions leading
up to this. However, it is worth mentioning that if multiple
rounds of thunderstorms move or train over the same area, we could
see a localized flash flood risk due to high rainfall rates. The
biggest impact of this weekend's rainfall will be priming the
region for an increased threat of river flooding by the middle of
next week as more rainfall is expected through early in the week.

The Severe Weather Threat this Weekend:

The overall threat for severe weather this weekend is low across
much of northern and central Georgia, however, there will be a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across southern portions of central
Georgia (Columbus to Macon and south) each afternoon and evening.
This area will have a better opportunity to see some instability
(500-1000 J/kg at best) with breaks in cloud cover and
warmer/moister air in low-level southeast flow. So, we may see a
few isolated severe thunderstorms develop, with a primary threat
of damaging winds, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out either.

Culver

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

Key Messages:
 - Multiple days of cloudy and rainy weather, with thunderstorms
  possible each afternoon. A few storms could become strong to
  severe.

 - River flooding concerns may develop through the middle of the
  week.

Main driver of conditions through mid week will continue to be
the stacked cut-off low over the SERN US. Models remain in decent
agreement that the low will likely begin to eject from the area
around Tuesday and Wednesday, though a few members continue to
drag slower than others. While the low remains in the area, S/SW
flow and PoPs will continue across the area. Rainfall totals
through the period will be a widespread 1 to 3 inches, bringing 5
day event totals closer to the 3 to 5 range. Thunderstorms each
afternoon will be possible with some storms being strong to severe
on Monday as the cold front swings through. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible with these storms and any that
track over already saturated areas may pose an isolated flash
flood risk.

River flooding will become likely especially in central and east
central Georgia, where the heaviest 5 day totals are expected.
This has resulted in a WPC ERO of slight.

By late Wednesday, the low should be on its way out of the area,
bringing drier air into the region. However, conditions are next
expected to cool off as tropical jet mid level ridging develops
and things warm considerably. Temperatures warm from the lows near
60 and highs in the 70s to lows near 70 and highs near 90 by end
of week.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions, breezy easterly winds, and -SHRA will be
prominent through the 18Z TAF period. CIGs will generally be
around 010-020 through 03Z, briefly dropping lower with any SHRA
or TSRA activity impacting the terminals. CIGs likely drop to
LIFR/IFR (004-010) after 06Z tonight, improving back to MVFR by
Sunday afternoon. Winds will be easterly around 10-15kts with
gusts 20-25kts through the period. Chances for TSRA will be very
low each afternoon/evening, but still worth mentioning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Moderate confidence in the in the timing of IFR ceilings. High
confidence in the easterly winds today. Low confidence in the
timing and occurrence of thunderstorms.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  69  61  72 /  90  90 100 100
Atlanta         59  69  63  75 /  80  90 100 100
Blairsville     52  68  57  67 /  80  80 100 100
Cartersville    57  72  60  74 /  70  70 100  90
Columbus        63  75  63  80 /  80  90  90  80
Gainesville     57  67  61  70 /  80  80 100 100
Macon           62  75  63  78 /  90  90 100 100
Rome            57  74  60  75 /  70  70  90  90
Peachtree City  58  72  62  75 /  80  90 100  90
Vidalia         66  77  66  78 /  90  90 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Culver

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
216 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
216 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Georgia today and
tonight. A couple of storms could be strong with wind gusts in the
40 to 50 mph range and even a brief tornado between 2 PM and
midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms could develop in
central Georgia Sunday afternoon and evening.

Rain showers and thunderstorms will continue in Georgia through
Wednesday. This will lead to widespread rainfall totals between 1
and 4 inches, with localized amounts over 5 inches. Rising river
levels and some limited river flooding may develop early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
350 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

GAZ103-104-102015-
Sumter GA-Webster GA-
350 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Webster and
southwestern Sumter Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 348 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Oakville, or near
Dawson, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Preston, Plains, Weston, Sumter, Maddox, Croxton Crossroads,
Centerpoint, Dumas, and Leveretts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 8437 3192 8438 3197 8444 3193 8444
      3192 8446 3192 8462 3211 8461 3215 8435
      3200 8423 3192 8423 3191 8424 3192 8434
      3187 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 206DEG 17KT 3185 8450

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH