Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
101 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

Current line of showers and thunderstorms is approaching the western
border of Georgia and is expected to continue to push eastward into
the overnight hours. Instability remains low at this time but still
can't rule out gusts up to 60 mph. The High wind warning remains in
effect with gusts from 45-60 mph already observed this evening. These
should continue overnight with the warning expiring at 7 am. A wind
advisory will remain in place through 7pm tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

 - A Wind Advisory is now in effect through Wed evening for
   North and Central GA.

 - A High Wind Warning is in effect for the higher elevations of
   North GA Tonight.

 - A line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms is expected to
   sweep across the area tonight into Wednesday morning.

Current satellite loop shows the main low pressure center spinning
over OK/KS with its associated frontal boundary moving into the Mid
to lower MS river valley. Models showing this low center lifting and
deepening becoming centered near the IL/WI border by 12z Wed. Its
trailing cold front will sweep through MS/AL this evening, pushing
into NW GA just before midnight tonight. It will continue to push
east overnight exiting the GA coast early Wed afternoon. E to SE
winds have already begun to increase across the area ahead of this
front and we will continue to see the gradient tighten across the
area ahead of this system. Have issued a Wind Advisory for North and
central GA Today through Wed evening with a high wind warning across
the North GA mountains counties for Tonight. Some of the highest
ridges in the N GA mountains may see wind gusts 50 to 60mph.

Models continue to forecast a minimal amount of pre-frontal
instability (mostly less than 300 J/kg SBCape). However, there will
be quite a bit of dynamic energy associated with this system
(particularly across the Western portion of the area). Additionally,
a low-level jet will position over the area, providing winds of over
60 kts as low as 1500-2000 ft above the surface. As a result, heavy
showers and thunderstorms may mix these winds down to the surface. An
isolated tornado is not out of the question due to increasing
helicity values before frontal passage. Forecast storm total rainfall
amounts are forecast to range from 1.5-2.0" across the windward
sides of NE mountains due to orographic effects. Elsewhere, rainfall
amounts near and NW of I-85 will average .75-1.0", with amounts
closer to .5-.75" SE of Macon.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will mostly shift E of the area by
midday Wed, but some wrap-around showers will dip across N GA to near
the Atlanta metro area during the afternoon. Cooler temperatures
will begin to filter into the area behind the cold front, with
readings dropping before sunset across the NW half of the area. May
even see some light snow showers across the NE GA mountains before
the last of the backside moisture exits the area early Thu morning.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 326 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

As the long term period begins on Thursday morning, the axis of a
longwave trough will have cleared Georgia to the east, with the
associated surface low moving away into southeast Canada. Any
lingering light precipitation on the back side of the system should
come to an end by sunrise, with no additional accumulation expected.
The upper flow pattern will remain amplified, with a broad ridge
extending from south Texas towards the northern Rockies. Between
these two features, much of our region will be situated underneath
northwesterly upper flow. A tight surface pressure gradient will
remain behind the retreating low pressure system and high pressure
moving east across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This will lead
to continued breezy conditions as the morning begins, which will
gradually taper off during the later parts of the day. Winds will be
strongest across the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia
during the day on Thursday, which could once again exceed Wind
Advisory criteria. Skies will also begin to clear as the surface high
continues to approach the forecast area. A return to cooler
temperatures is expected within this regime, with low temperatures
ranging from the upper 20s in far northeast Georgia to the upper 30s
in south-central Georgia on Thursday morning. High temperatures on
Thursday will be as much as 7-10 degrees below normal, in the 50s
across the majority of the forecast area. Some locations in far north
Georgia could struggle to get out of the 40s.

The upper level ridge will dampen late Thursday night into Friday,
with northwesterly upper level flow becoming more zonal. The airmass
will begin to moderate under this zonal flow and as the surface high
moves over the forecast area. Lows will mainly be in the mid 30s on
Friday morning, then high temperatures are forecast to be near normal
and in the 60s on Friday afternoon. Dry, benign weather will
continue through as high pressure slides towards the western
Atlantic. An ongoing active weather pattern will bring a return to
rain chances on Saturday and into early SUnday. Guidance remains
inconsistent regarding the timing of return of rainfall with a trend
towards a wetter period later Saturday night into early Sunday, with
low-end likely PoPs being introduced in central Georgia during this
time period. If this trend holds, the later part of the day on Sunday
and Monday would favor drier weather.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

Line of showers and thunderstorms presently making their way across
the Atlanta metro area and CSG, where wind gusts over 40 knots are
possible. Winds will shift to the S-SW behind this line. Wind speeds
will likely come down a bit between the line and the cold front, with
winds picking back up out of the SW-W after frontal passage. After a
period of scattered low clouds from mid-morning to around midday,
MVFR cigs are expected to fill back in as clouds wrap around the back
side of the departing system.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on wind speeds between line of thunderstorms and
cold front as well as wrap-around cigs, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  65  35  56 / 100  40   0   0
Atlanta         55  62  35  54 / 100  10  10   0
Blairsville     48  57  27  47 / 100  40  30   0
Cartersville    51  61  32  54 / 100  20  10   0
Columbus        54  65  37  59 / 100  10   0   0
Gainesville     53  62  34  54 / 100  20  10   0
Macon           55  68  37  59 /  90  30  10   0
Rome            51  59  32  55 / 100  20  20   0
Peachtree City  53  62  33  54 / 100  10  10   0
Vidalia         59  75  41  60 /  50  90  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for GAZ001>009-
012>016.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
for GAZ001>009-012>016.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ011-019>025-027-
030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...SEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
952 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-060300-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
952 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold
front tonight into Wednesday morning. Some thunderstorms may become
strong to severe, capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a tornado or two. A slight (level 2 out of 5) risk of
severe weather is forecast for portions western Georgia along the
state line. Due to the timing of potential storms, residents are
advised to ensure the alert feature is working on their weather
radios tonight.

A High Wind Warning is in effect through 7am tomorrow morning for
far north Georgia. Strong winds could blow down trees and power
lines, leading to numerous power outages. A Wind Advisory is in
effect elsewhere across north and central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Thunderstorms are expected in portions of east and central Georgia
on Wednesday morning through Wednesday mid day with a few storms
becoming strong to severe, capable of producing damaging wind
gusts. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out.

A Wind Advisory will remain in effect across north and central
Georgia through Wednesday evening. Tree limbs could be blown down
and a few power outages may result.

A chance for thunderstorms may return to central Georgia Saturday
night into Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to self-activate tonight if warnings are
issued.

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