Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
152 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

  - Cold front will bring storms to the area Today. A Slight Risk
    (level 2 of 5) is in effect for north and parts of west
    central Georgia. Primary concerns are damaging winds and a
    quick spin up tornado or two.

  - A Flood Watch is in effect for north and portions of west and
    central Georgia from 8 am to Sunday to 8pm Monday. Rainfall of
    2-4" with isolated amounts up to 5" will be possible. A
    Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) is in effect for flash flood
    potential.

Current radar loop shows the line of showers and thunderstorms
associated with the approaching frontal boundary has moved into NW
GA. We are seeing severe storms along this line and expect it to
continue moving slowly SE through Monday. The Bermuda ridge that
has blocked this boundary from moving into the area over the past
few days is breaking down and pushing east. The line will push SE
and stall in and around the ATL/AHN metro areas Today/Tonight. The
main line of storms finally pushes south and east of the area
Monday as the upper level forcing catches up to the line and
swings the actual front through.

As for the severe weather Today. The limiting factor appears to
be the lack of instability, even though the system will be
laying across the area during peak daytime heating. The
probability of seeing greater than 500 J/kg of instability is 50%
or greater generally along and south of I-20. Any probabilities of
greater than 1000 J/kg are limited to only west central Georgia.
This is due to the positively tilted trough approaching the area,
keeping upper levels warm. Instability will be difficult to
achieve even in the afternoon heating, and ongoing convective blow
off may limit daytime heating near the slowly moving line of
storms. There is a LLJ which helps shear profiles and some
possible rotation with some stronger storms. The greatest threat
appears to be damaging winds and the threat for some QLCS and
isolated small tornados.

As for the flooding concerns. Latest QPF guidance shows a nice
2-4" swath of 2 day precip amounts across most of the area. This
meshes well with the expected stalling of the main line and
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. This is also in line with 90th
percentile showing widespread 4-5" across much of metro Atlanta.
This amount of rainfall will definitely lead to flooding and flash
flooding concerns if it does come to fruition. All this will be
very highly dependent on exactly where the boundary stalls and if
it stalls at all. If the boundary stalls a bit further south where
the soils can handle higher rainfall amounts this may not be as
great a concern. Have continued and extended the Flood Watch to
include all of north GA along with portions of central and west
GA. The Flood watch goes through 00z Tue.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

The long term period will begin on Monday night with the cold front
clearing the forecast area to the southeast. Showers will remain in
portions of east and central Georgia immediately behind the front.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the far southeast as
well, but are expected to come to an end by midnight.
Northwesterly winds on the back side of the front will usher in a
noticeably cooler airmass. Low temperatures on Tuesday will start
the morning in the upper 30s to low 40s in north Georgia and mid
40s in central Georgia. Advancing surface high pressure to the
northwest of the forecast area will promote clear skies and benign
weather through midweek. Highs on Tuesday range from 7-13 degrees
below climatological normals, ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s
in north Georgia and mid to upper 60s in central Georgia -- quite
the contrast from our recent run of warm temperatures.

Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning of the week as
reinforcing colder air moves into the area from the north. Low
temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 30s along and
north of the Atlanta metro area. Elsewhere in north Georgia,
temperatures in the mid 30s could warrant the need for a Frost
Advisory, as well. Temperatures will begin to moderate on
Wednesday as the surface high moves east of the area and southerly
low level flow returns. Highs in the afternoon will rise into the
mid 60s to low 70s, with slightly cooler temperatures in the
higher elevations of the far northeast. On Thursday a 500 mb
trough will swing through the Midwest, extending into the
Tennessee Valley region by the end of the day. A cold front will
trail from the associated surface low, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms becoming possible across far north Georgia during by
early Thursday afternoon. As the trough continues to deepen
Thursday night into Friday, it will advance the front and
associated precipitation southward through the area.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Strong winds currently impacting airport with convection moving
through. Thunder chances will continue well into the evening
within moderate to heavy rain behind main line. Brief shift to NE
possible over next hour or so before winds expected to return to
SSE at 8-13 kts with higher gusts. RA will impact airport through
evening into overnight. Cigs will drop overnight to be steady
MVFR, with IFR chances by early tomorrow. Rain should come to an
end by the afternoon, but cigs remain through end of TAF period.
Vsby impacts expected to be MVFR within rain (lower if heavier
convection passes overhead).

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium in cigs (could see faster drop to IFR), high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          82  60  66  42 /  90  90  80  10
Atlanta         78  58  64  43 / 100 100  70  10
Blairsville     70  53  61  35 / 100  90  60   0
Cartersville    76  54  63  39 / 100  80  50   0
Columbus        83  59  66  43 /  80  90  90  10
Gainesville     78  59  65  43 / 100  90  70  10
Macon           86  62  70  44 /  50  70  90  30
Rome            75  53  63  39 /  90  70  30   0
Peachtree City  81  57  65  41 / 100 100  80  10
Vidalia         89  69  79  49 /   0  10  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>038-041>050-052>060-066>071-078-079-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Lusk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
117 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071730-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
117 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Tornado Watch is in effect near and along the I-85 corridor from
Atlanta south to Columbus until 7 pm tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected across north and central Georgia Today
and Tonight. Some storms may become strong to severe, capable of
producing damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. A few brief tornadoes may be possible within these line
segments.

A Flood Watch is in effect Today across North and portions of
central and west GA due to expected periods of heavy rainfall and
the potential for flash flooding. Areas under the watch could see
2-4" of rainfall with isolated amounts near 5" through Monday
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Thunderstorms are expected across east central Georgia Monday and
Monday evening. Some storms may become strong to severe, capable
of producing damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out.

A Flood Watch will still be in effect through Monday evening as a
result of heavy rainfall.

Frost and freeze concerns may develop across portions of north
Georgia Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1207 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

GAZ031-032-042>044-061645-
Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Carroll GA-Paulding GA-South Fulton GA-
1207 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Paulding,
eastern Carroll, southwestern Cobb, Douglas and southwestern Fulton
Counties through 1245 PM EDT...

At 1206 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Abilene, or near
Carrollton, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Chattahoochee Hill, Powder Springs, Lithia Springs, Brownsville, Bill
Arp, Seaton Lake, Fairplay, City of South Fulton, Clem, Abilene,
Winston, Lake Val-Do-Mar, Campbellton, Sweetwater Creek State Park,
Byers Crossroads, Hannah, Palmetto, Villa Rica, Douglasville, and
Chapel Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for north central,
northwestern and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3381 8504 3397 8460 3351 8460 3351 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1606Z 238DEG 28KT 3362 8501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
140 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

GAZ046-048-056>059-061830-
Butts GA-Rockdale GA-Jasper GA-Spalding GA-Newton GA-Henry GA-
140 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south central
Rockdale, eastern Spalding, southeastern Henry, Butts, western Jasper
and southern Newton Counties through 230 PM EDT...

At 139 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from McDonough to Highland Mills, and moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Blacksville, Porterdale, Turtle Cove, Ola, Worthville, Walker Mill,
McDonough, Jackson, Stewart, Locust Grove, Eudora, Luella, North
Alcovy, Fincherville, Kelleytown, Oak Hill, Jenkinsburg, Magnet,
Flovilla, and McKibben.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for central, north
central and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3359 8376 3339 8371 3320 8380 3321 8423
      3356 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 268DEG 25KT 3347 8415 3326 8431

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
145 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

GAZ034-045>048-057-061830-
Walton GA-Rockdale GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-Newton GA-Henry GA-
145 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Rockdale,
southeastern DeKalb, southern Gwinnett, north central Henry, western
Walton and north central Newton Counties through 230 PM EDT...

At 145 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Tucker to Rex, and moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Walnut Grove, Windsor, Harbin, Nicholasville, Belmont, Arabia
Mountain, Big Haynes Creek Park, Rosebud, Hidden Valley Park, Pine
Lake, Loganville, Jersey, Conyers, Grayson, Oxford, Snapfinger,
Snellville, Bold Springs, Almon, and Between.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for north central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 8373 3363 8379 3358 8426 3360 8424
      3361 8426 3386 8421 3397 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 255DEG 25KT 3385 8419 3360 8427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
259 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Conyers             33.63N 84.01W
04/06/2025                   Rockdale           GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was downed across the roadway on
            Lennox Drive SE at GA Hwy 20.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

GAZ066-067-078-061945-
Harris GA-Troup GA-Meriwether GA-
301 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Meriwether, southeastern Troup and northwestern Harris Counties
through 345 PM EDT...

At 301 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Mountville to near Lake Harding, and moving northeast
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Stovall, Mountville, Big Springs, Jones Crossroads, Baughs
Crossroads, Odessadale, Whitesville-Pine Lake, and Pine Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for west central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 8473 3269 8510 3276 8512 3309 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 228DEG 25KT 3306 8490 3272 8510

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSE Conyers           33.63N 83.99W
04/06/2025                   Rockdale           GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree fell across Woodstone Cove SE and
            blocked the roadway.

&&