Severe Thunderstorm Warning 383, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
158 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Key Messages:

    - Saturday will bring another day of scattered afternoon
      and evening thunderstorms. Some storms could become strong
      with locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and brief
      gusty winds.

    - Heat index values as high as 98-104 are expected Saturday
      afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms are again erupting this afternoon within a
moist and unstable environment. This activity will persist into the
evening before gradually waning with the loss of diurnal support.
Slow and meandering forward motion will present the risk for locally
heavy rainfall that could lead to street or nuisance flooding
concerns. Additionally, frequent lightning and brief gusty winds can
be expected.

Saturday brings no significant forecast changes with continued
anomalously deep Gulf moisture characterized by PWATs of 1.75-2.10"
remaining in place. Scattered thunderstorms can again be anticipated
Saturday afternoon and evening, though coverage may begin to trend
slightly downward as the midlevel subtropical ridge begins to build
over the Southeast. Again, locally heavy rainfall, frequent
lightning, and gusty winds will be a concern with any storm, though
widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Temperatures on Saturday will also begin to trend upward as ridging
starts to build. Highs should step upward a couple of degrees as
compared to today, largely into the low to mid 90s. Apparent
temperatures will push back above 100 for most areas. A few spots in
east central Georgia could briefly reach 105 degree heat index
values, but the spotty and transient nature will preclude any Heat
Advisory issuance at this time.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

At a glance:

- Thunderstorm coverage in the afternoon will ease this weekend and
the start of next week as high pressure temporarily stalls over GA.

- Temperatures will steadily rise, and heat indices could rise back
into the triple digits.

Some good news, the forecast is beginning to show the possibility of
easing thunderstorm coverage late this weekend and early next week.
Given the time of year and the principles of thermodynamics, we
won't see the end of afternoon convection all together. However, the
coverage and the intensity will likely be limited as a result of a
building high pressure heat dome that will likely push temps into
uncomfortable late this weekend and into the early part of next
week.

Temperatures are also going to slowly become more and more of an
issue as we get into the weekend. High temps will be pushing mid to
upper 90s with triple digit heat indices possible, especially in the
southern parts of the CWA.

As we move into the middle part of next week, afternoon
thunderstorms will likely return to the CWA. High pressure moves off
the coast, and moisture will likely return to the area to provide
the ingredients for daytime convection. No indication of any front
driven storms, but as always a few storms during this time will
likely be strong to severe.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
outside of any SHRA/TSRA. Sct SHRA/TSRA will peak in coverage from
roughly 19-00Z before gradually diminishing overnight. Additional
sct SHRA/TSRA can again be expected on Saturday, mainly after 18Z.
Winds will remain W at 4-8 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  93  73  96 /  20  30  10  20
Atlanta         73  92  74  95 /  20  30   0  20
Blairsville     65  86  66  89 /  20  50  10  40
Cartersville    70  91  71  95 /  10  30  10  20
Columbus        73  94  74  96 /  10  20   0  20
Gainesville     72  91  73  94 /  10  30  10  20
Macon           72  94  74  97 /  20  30   0  20
Rome            70  91  71  93 /  10  30  10  30
Peachtree City  70  92  72  95 /  10  30   0  20
Vidalia         74  94  76  98 /  30  50  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1147 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1147 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected in north and
central Georgia. A couple of storms could be severe, with gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall, especially in
eastern Georgia. Some localized flooding is possible, especially
in urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected this
weekend and early next week, though overall storm coverage should
decrease.

The heat will build some early next week, with afternoon feels
like temperatures reaching the 100 to 108 degree range Sunday,
Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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