Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
754 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Vertically stacked southwest flow continues to push abundant
moisture into the region with PWATS this morning of 1.87" and model
guidance indicating values upwards of 2" through the next 5-days. The
stalling cut off low over the western gulf the TX/LA coast will
continue to provide broad and weak lift across the southeast.
Combining the moisture, warm June temperatures, and lift means
thunderstorms chances nearly every day, peaking in the afternoon
each day. Storms will likely be scattered in nature, however most
people will likely see at least a sprinkle.

CAPE values each afternoon are likely to exceed 1000-1500 J/Kg.
DCAPE values this morning were already over 400 J/Kg suggesting
afternoon values each afternoon could easily exceed 900 J/Kg. This
would allow storms to develop brief, but strong, gusty winds.
Otherwise the main hazards will be frequent lightning and locally
heavy rainfall. So whether your favorite outdoor activities are
Georgia classics like floating down the river, participating in
outdoor sports, or getting bit by mosquitos make sure to be weather
aware.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

As the long term period begins on Saturday, a 500 mb trough will
extend from the Midwest towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley,
which will keep Georgia underneath southwesterly flow aloft as it
slowly advances eastward. Continued advection of warm and moist air
from the Gulf will keep dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and
precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2 inches during the
weekend and through the early parts of next week. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be higher than normal each day given
this ample moisture. Convective activity will be largely diurnally
driven, with low PoPs through much of the mornings, increasing
through the early afternoons, and peaking between 60-80% in the mid
to late afternoon hours each day. The southern end of the shortwave
advancing through the Tennessee Valley region on Sunday afternoon is
expected to contribute to locally higher chances still across the
far northern tier. While organized severe weather is not expected, a
few storms each day could become strong and capable of producing
frequent lightning and gusty winds. Furthermore, with high PWATs,
these storms will be efficient rainfall producers, which could lead
to isolated flooding concerns. Patchy fog will be possible during
the overnight and early morning hours, particularly where soils are
saturated from previous rainfall and cloud cover dissipates.

Considering the chances for showers and thunderstorms each day and
the associated cloud cover, high temperatures will run near normal
for mid-June this weekend, in the 80s across the area. Low
temperatures will closely reflect the dewpoints, and will run about
4-8 degrees above daily normals. Temperatures will begin to climb in
the early portions of next week, particularly to the south of the
Fall Line, where highs will rise into the low to mid 90s. These
temperatures, combined with the aforementioned dewpoints, will
contribute to maximum heat indices of 100-105 degrees in portions of
central Georgia on Monday through Wednesday.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Chance for lingering -TSRA impacts at ATL thru 02Z tonight. A pd
of IFR cigs is likely between 10-15Z for northern TAF sites, and
beyond that, primarily SCT-BKN low VFR to MVFR cigs exp thru the
pd. Cannot rule out some low-VFR to MVFR vsbys in tandem, but
confidence is relatively low. Best chances for -TSRA on Friday
aftn will come between 18-24Z areawide, but may extend after
sunset depending on where initiation occurs. Winds will likely go
CALM/VRB overnight before picking back up out of the SSW at 4-7kts
by 14-15Z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence ceiling progression.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  84  69  85 /  70  70  60  80
Atlanta         70  85  71  86 /  50  60  50  80
Blairsville     64  79  65  81 /  60  70  60  90
Cartersville    69  86  69  87 /  50  60  50  80
Columbus        71  88  71  88 /  30  60  40  80
Gainesville     69  82  70  84 /  70  70  60  80
Macon           70  88  71  88 /  60  70  50  80
Rome            69  85  69  87 /  30  60  50  80
Peachtree City  69  87  69  86 /  40  60  40  70
Vidalia         71  89  72  88 /  50  80  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
643 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-132245-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
643 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms expected across north and central Georgia
this evening. Storms will be capable of producing frequent
lightning and heavy rainfall. A few strong storms capable of
producing gusty winds will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Daily numerous to widespread thunderstorms will continue across
parts of north and central Georgia through the weekend into next
week. Strong storms will be possible each day, but confidence in
the timing or coverage of any severe storms is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
814 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

GAZ097-130045-
Laurens GA-
814 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Laurens County through 845 PM EDT...

At 814 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Harlow, or near Dublin,
moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Dublin, East Dublin, Chappells Mill, Lovett, Harlow, and Brewton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 8285 3240 8303 3267 8305 3271 8290
      3264 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 187DEG 14KT 3244 8294

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
816 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

GAZ097-110>112-130045-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Montgomery GA-Laurens GA-
816 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Laurens, northeastern Telfair, Wheeler and west central Montgomery
Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 816 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Alamo, moving northeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
McRae, Alamo, Mount Vernon, Helena, Lumber City, Glenwood, Ailey,
Scotland, Towns, Spring Hill, Landsburg, Little Ocmulgee State Park,
and Jordan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 8268 3204 8291 3230 8284 3228 8264
      3217 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 204DEG 21KT 3211 8274

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
820 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

GAZ034-046>049-130045-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Gwinnett GA-Newton GA-
820 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern
Rockdale, west central Morgan, southeastern Gwinnett, Walton and
central Newton Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 820 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Rosebud to near Porterdale, and moving northeast
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceville, Conyers, Monroe, Covington, Snellville, Loganville,
Dacula, Social Circle, Grayson, Oxford, Porterdale, Walnut Grove,
Rutledge, Between, Jersey, Georgia International Horse Park, Windsor,
Harbin, Nicholasville, and Big Haynes Creek Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3402 8388 3394 8380 3393 8380 3389 8375
      3364 8361 3351 8376 3352 8390 3374 8404
      3375 8403 3378 8406 3382 8409 3406 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 208DEG 18KT 3381 8402 3356 8386

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
840 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

GAZ083-095-096-130115-
Houston GA-Bleckley GA-Twiggs GA-
840 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Twiggs,
northwestern Bleckley and east central Houston Counties through 915
PM EDT...

At 839 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Royal, or near Cochran,
moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Cochran, Royal, Coley Station, Tarversville, District Path, Paulk,
Porter, and Magnolia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 8347 3239 8349 3256 8359 3264 8347
      3261 8333 3240 8333 3237 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 169DEG 22KT 3246 8341

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
848 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

GAZ023-034-130115-
Hall GA-Gwinnett GA-
848 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Gwinnett and southwestern Hall Counties through 915 PM EDT...

At 848 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Buford, or 7 miles
north of Lawrenceville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceville, Sugar Hill, Suwanee, Buford, Flowery Branch, Rest
Haven, Aqualand Park, Buford Dam-Lake Lanier Parks, Lake Lanier
Islands, and Hog Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3420 8390 3412 8384 3410 8387 3395 8399
      3403 8412 3405 8410 3407 8412 3415 8408
      3417 8406 3418 8406 3419 8405 3419 8400
      3422 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 214DEG 16KT 3407 8401

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
856 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

GAZ035-047>049-130130-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Barrow GA-Newton GA-
856 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south central Barrow,
Morgan, Walton and east central Newton Counties through 930 PM EDT...

At 856 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Jersey to near Rutledge to near Godfrey, and moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, Madison, Loganville, Social Circle, Walnut Grove, Rutledge,
North High Shoals, Bostwick, Between, Good Hope, Jersey, Ebenezer,
Nicholasville, Youth, Hard Labor Creek State Park, Pannell, Campton,
Herndonville, Gratis, and Apalachee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 8360 3391 8364 3389 8363 3388 8358
      3387 8359 3385 8357 3380 8348 3372 8344
      3369 8340 3366 8337 3362 8336 3348 8353
      3350 8364 3374 8385 3385 8388 3395 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 233DEG 20KT 3374 8378 3365 8366 3351 8356

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH