Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1018 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

A couple of clusters of thunderstorms remain ongoing at this
hour. One area across northwest Georgia is gradually pushing
eastward ahead of a surface front while another area is associated
with a northward-moving outflow boundary across Middle Georgia.
Sufficient SBCAPE remains (~1000-1500 J/kg) for thunderstorm
activity to linger over the next few hours before gradually waning
with further loss of earlier daytime heating. Some severe threat
will also remain at least for the next couple of hours before
convective trends are likely to weaken further. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect through midnight in far north
Georgia to account for the potential for at least an isolated
severe hail or gusty wind occurrence.

RW

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 453 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

 - Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect in far north Georgia until
midnight EDT.

 - Severe storms that develop this afternoon and evening will be
capable of producing large hail (up to 2") and damaging wind gusts.

With dewpoints mainly in the low to mid 60s and temperatures rising
into the 80s across the area into the 80s across the area, SBCAPE
values are in the 2000-2500 J/kg range in a largely untapped
airmass. Furthermore, cool air at the mid levels is serving to
steepen lapse rates at the 700-500 mb level. At this time, these
lapse rates range between 7.0-7.5 degrees C/km across roughly the
northern half of the forecast area. Meanwhile, a weak cold front
will advance through the Tennessee Valley region, which will help
initiate storms in the late afternoon hours. Effective-layer bulk
shear values of 30-40 kts are in place immediately ahead of the
frontal boundary, which will help thunderstorms become organized
into discrete supercells and broken line segments. Across north
Georgia, the combination of MUCAPE and strong mid-level lapse rates
could favor the development of large hail, even as large as 2
inches. Thus, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
hazards with any severe thunderstorms that occur this afternoon and
evening. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning will additionally
be possible with any thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has diagnosed a Slight Risk (level
2 of 5) across portions of north Georgia in the northern half of
our forecast area, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) elsewhere
across the forecast area. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
across the far northern tier where the threat is expected to be
greatest, and will remain in effect until midnight. The evolution
of storms will need to be monitored into the night. Hi-res
guidance indicates the potential that these storms could develop
into an MCS and advance southeastward through the eastern part of
the state after midnight. Of course, I would like to stress that
MCS evolution and propagation is notoriously tricky and not always
handled well by hi- res guidance, so continued watching will be
warranted as the situation unfolds.

Winds are forecast to be light and variable during the overnight
hours. With ample low level moisture and temperatures forecast to
drop into the upper 50s and low 60s across north Georgia, fog and
low clouds are forecast as the airmass becomes saturated. This will
especially be true in far north Georgia and where rain occurs after
sunset. Here, areas of dense fog will be possible in the early
morning. With daytime heating on Friday, lingering fog should
dissipate by mid-morning.

On Friday, an elongated upper trough will extend from southeast
Canada to the ArkLaTex, with moist southwesterly upper flow
continuing to overspread the Southeast as a result. A shortwave
traversing the SW flow will push into the forecast area on Friday
afternoon and evening, which will provide a lifting mechanism and
lead to an increase in PoPs. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s
and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s in central Georgia will
contribute to SBCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg, which will be
sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorms. With marginal
effective-layer bulk shear, a few storms in the afternoon and
evening could become strong, capable of producing gusty winds and
hail once again. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained
for portions of central/east Georgia.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 453 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

Key Messages:

 - Unsettled and cooler than normal weather conditions through
early next week

 - Localized flooding may become a concern, especially by early
next week after repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall

The weekend will start off with continued unsettled weather, as
an upper level trough cuts off over the NW Gulf Coast and ridging
develops across the Caribbean. This will start a fairly stagnant
pattern, as the now-closed-off upper level low sits in place
along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. The low will pump
several rounds of warm moist air over Georgia, with daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms. From the early to middle portions
of next week, the low will finally lift north and east across the
Southeast US, with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall ahead of
it. The period of heaviest rainfall for Georgia looks to be
Monday and Tuesday, with increased concerns for localized
flooding on these due to the repeated rounds of rainfall over a
multiple day stretch. Overall, temperatures from the weekend
through early next week will be cooler than normal, with highs
generally in the 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows in the upper
50s to low 60s.

Culver

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

VFR conditions prevail at TAF sites with FEW/SCT cu in the 5-7 kft
range. Iso -SHRA/TSRA will be possible this evening, primarily
02-05Z before chances diminish thereafter. Patchy MVFR cigs are
possible 10-14Z, mainly at ATL/AHN area sites, though confidence
in coverage is not high. Patchy fog is also possible, especially
in areas that receive any rainfall. SW winds this evening will
trend to W/NW on Friday at 4-8 kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low to medium confidence in SHRA/TSRA coverage and morning lower
cig potential.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          59  84  59  81 /   0  30  40  10
Atlanta         62  84  61  80 /  20  30  30  10
Blairsville     57  81  53  74 /  10  50  50  20
Cartersville    63  84  57  79 /   0  40  30  10
Columbus        67  88  63  83 /   0  20  40  20
Gainesville     60  82  59  79 /  50  40  40  10
Macon           64  87  62  83 /   0  30  40  20
Rome            63  82  58  79 /   0  40  40  20
Peachtree City  62  85  59  81 /   0  20  50  10
Vidalia         70  88  65  86 /  10  60  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
927 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-100130-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
927 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon could produce severe storms
across northern Georgia. The main threat will be damaging winds
and hail along with frequent lightning and heavy rain. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for north Georgia until
midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of
north and central Georgia each day into the weekend. Any storms
will be capable of producing gusty winds, small hail, and frequent
lightning. A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday, with
damaging winds and large hail as the main threats. Periods of
heavy rainfall will be possible each day as well, with the
potential for localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
939 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

GAZ091-092-102>104-090215-
Schley GA-Stewart GA-Sumter GA-Marion GA-Webster GA-
939 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Marion,
eastern Stewart, central Webster, southwestern Schley and west
central Sumter Counties through 1015 PM EDT...

At 939 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Lumpkin, moving east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lumpkin, Preston, Richland, Putnam, Seminole, Charles, Kimbrough,
Westville, Brooklyn, Draneville, Friendship, Doyle, Church Hill,
Dumas, Louvale, and Providence Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3202 8493 3213 8494 3223 8468 3223 8466
      3224 8466 3233 8444 3207 8433 3197 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 249DEG 25KT 3206 8483

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
942 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

GAZ011-012-019-090215-
Chattooga GA-Gordon GA-Floyd GA-
942 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Floyd,
southwestern Gordon and central Chattooga Counties through 1015 PM
EDT...

At 942 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Fullerton, or near
Cedar Bluff, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rome, Plainville, Shannon, Lyerly, Pinson, Coosa, Chattoogaville,
Tidings, Armuchee, Everett Springs, James H. Floyd State Park, and
Holland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 8511 3435 8501 3435 8502 3429 8503
      3420 8545 3440 8548
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 249DEG 25KT 3429 8551

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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