Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
322 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

500 mb analysis reveals a somewhat nebulous flow pattern across
the Southeast. Fairly dense cloud cover this morning and early
afternoon has delayed convective initiation, so showers and storms
have just now begun to develop across portions of central
Georgia, where there are breaks in the cloud cover. SPC
mesoanalysis indicates 20 kts or less of bulk shear, so activity
will be slow-moving, which could mean periods of heavy rainfall
and the possibility of localized nuisance flooding, if heavy
rainfall occurs over urban areas or areas with poor drainage. SPC
mesoanalysis also indicates 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE where breaks
in cloud cover have allowed for insolation, so expect increasing
coverage of showers and storms through the rest of the afternoon
and early evening. Mid-level lapse rates will struggle to exceed
6.5 C/km, so while updrafts may initiate with ease due to surface-
based instability, not expecting intense, long-lived updrafts
supportive of severe storms. That said, a few strong storms with
gusty winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will be
possible. Scattered showers and isolated storms may persist well
into the overnight hours amid the soupy airmass (PWAT of 1.2" to
1.8") in place across the Southeast.

The question mark for tomorrow (Friday) is the potential for
upscale growth of convection in the evening as a shortwave trough
traverses the murky mid-/upper-level flow pattern. The CAMs vary
in their depiction of the timing and evolution of convection, so
more details will be gleaned over the next 12-24 hours as
additional model runs come in. Should convection organize into an
MCS/QLCS, gusty to damaging wind gusts and hail will be hazards.

Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Key Messages:

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
   Saturday, with drier and slightly milder conditions Sunday into
   early next week.

 - Another weak cold front approach the area from the N by
   Wednesday.

Deep moisture will continue across the area though Saturday, with
scattered, mostly diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity. A weak
cold front will finally sink S across the area on Sunday, ushering
in drier and- dare I say it- milder conditions to much of the County
Warning Area (CWA). However, temperatures will still be 5 to 10
degrees above normal.

As the front pushes S, a weak wedge will develop across the NE half
of the area as surface high pressure slides over the Mid-Atlantic
states.

Another cold front will approach the area from N by Wednesday, with
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across the N portion of
the CWA.

Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 70s across the NE
mountains to near 90 across the extreme S. As the milder air starts
to filter in, lows Sunday morning will range from the mid 50s across
the N (behind the front) to the mid 60s across the S (ahead of the
front). Daytime highs will gradually come down a degree or two each
day through Monday, then start to warm back up by Tuesday and
Wednesday.

This will be my last AFD with the NWS. It has been an honor
serving the American public for the past 30+ years. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

The main change to the TAFs this afternoon has been to hone the
timing of convection later today and tonight. Dense cloud cover
has delayed convective initiation, so have a TEMPO for TSRA at ATL
and the other metro sites from 21z to 01z, at AHN from 23z to
03z, and at MCN and CSG from 20z to 00z. Areas of BR and patchy FG
will be possible overnight, especially where SHRA or TSRA occur.
Winds will be ESE to SE at 3-7 kts for the rest of today, becoming
light (less than ~4 kts) overnight. At ATL, a wind shift from SSE
to SSW is currently forecast for tomorrow (Friday) ~18z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  80  60  82 /  60  70  60  40
Atlanta         63  81  63  82 /  60  70  50  40
Blairsville     57  73  56  77 /  60  80  60  60
Cartersville    61  81  59  82 /  60  70  50  50
Columbus        63  87  63  87 /  30  30  30  20
Gainesville     62  77  61  81 /  60  80  60  40
Macon           61  85  62  87 /  30  30  40  30
Rome            60  81  60  82 /  50  70  50  40
Peachtree City  60  82  60  84 /  50  60  40  40
Vidalia         63  87  64  89 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
Issued by National Weather Service Birmingham AL
432 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-250845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
432 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening across portions of north Georgia. Severe weather is not
anticipated at this time. However, a strong storm or two capable
of strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible, especially
during the afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast for Friday through Sunday
across portions of north and central Georgia, with highest chances
across north Georgia. Widespread severe storms are not expected
at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
612 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     Hail             Reynolds                32.56N 84.09W
04/24/2025  M2.00 Inch       Taylor             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager provided a picture of 2
            inch hail from Reynolds, GA.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
623 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     Hail             Reynolds                32.55N 84.09W
04/24/2025  E1.75 Inch       Taylor             GA   Broadcast Media

            Broadcast media provided a photo of golf
            ball sized hail in Reynolds, Georgia. The
            location was estimated by radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
631 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     Hail             4 WSW Fickling Mill     32.64N 84.24W
04/24/2025  M1.00 Inch       Taylor             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Quarter-sized hail was reported in north
            Taylor county between Butler and Fickling
            Mill.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
631 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

GAZ032-043-242300-
Douglas GA-Cobb GA-
631 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Cobb
and northeastern Douglas Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 631 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Sweetwater Creek State
Park, or near Douglasville. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sweetwater Creek State Park, Six Flags Over Georgia, Lithia Springs,
Austell, Mableton, Douglasville, Powder Springs, Smyrna, and City of
South Fulton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 8466 3381 8449 3379 8451 3379 8453
      3373 8458 3370 8463 3375 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 216DEG 4KT 3377 8465

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
638 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

GAZ093>095-105-242315-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Dooly GA-Houston GA-
638 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Macon,
north central Dooly, south central Peach and southwestern Houston
Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 638 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Winchester, or 8 miles
northeast of Oglethorpe, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Saint Louis, Winchester, Marshallville, and Henderson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3233 8401 3246 8402 3249 8378 3225 8379
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 274DEG 9KT 3239 8397

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH