Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

A cold front will move south across the CWA overnight and into
tomorrow. Ahead of the frontal passage, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of north and
central portions of GA this afternoon and evening. The hi-res models
continue to be pretty consistent with the timing and with the
general trends.

A weak line of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue to move across northern portions of the state early this
afternoon. A second, stronger and more organized, wave of
convection is likely later this afternoon into the evening hours.
The organized convection axis has shifted somewhat south from
yesterday's runs...mainly along a path between metro ATL and
Columbus and areas southeast. Afternoon/evening storms will have
modest CAPE values (good heating/50s dewpoints) and steep lapse
rates. Forecast soundings also show a decent inverted V structure,
good for gusty storms. Still expecting large hail and damaging wind
gusts as the primary severe weather hazards.

Models continue to weaken the secondary wave of storms as it moves
into central portions of GA this evening. Seems reasonable with the
loss of heating and getting away from the main dynamic forcing to
the north.

Upper moves across the TN valley tomorrow. Models do tend to
underestimate the amount of cloud cover as these types of systems
move by, so have upped the sky grids a bit to compensate. Also, some
scattered shra possible as the low may provide just enough lift.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Key Messages:

 - The potential exists for overnight frost formation north of
   Interstate 85 and patchy sub freezing temperatures in the
   mountains this weekend.

 - Dry weather is favored in the region between Saturday and
   Thursday.

This Weekend:

An area of surface high pressure will build into the Southeast over
the weekend. This will combine with dry northwest flow aloft to
produce fairs skies, mild temperatures and dry weather. Weakening
surface pressure gradients should also lead to lighter winds in the
region (especially on Sunday). Radiational cooling should be
significant both Friday night and Saturday night and this may lead
to some frost/freeze concerns across northern Georgia. On Saturday
morning it looks like the coolest temperatures will be limited to
the sheltered areas in the mountains of northeast Georgia. Then on
Sunday morning the potential for at least Frost Advisory level
conditions exists along and north of Interstate 85. For the
northeast Georgia mountains there is a 50% chance of a Frost
Advisory (overnight lows below 36 degrees) Friday night into
Saturday morning, and a 50% chance of a Freeze Warning (overnight
lows below 32 degrees) Saturday night and Sunday morning. Along and
north of Interstate 85 there is a 40% chance of a Frost Advisory
Saturday night and Sunday morning.

High temperatures will struggle on Saturday due to continued
northwest winds and the resulting CAA. As a consequence afternoon
high temperatures should wallow in the lower 60s across north
Georgia and claw their way into the upper 60s in central Georgia.
High temperatures of this magnitude would be 7 to 12 degrees colder
than seasonal averages. A transition to westerly winds, continued
low relative humidity and sunshine should allow high temperatures to
climb to within 1-3 degrees of seasonal averages on Sunday.
Everywhere except the mountains can anticipate afternoon highs in
the 70s.

Considerations for Next Week:

An upper level trough tracking through the Great Lakes early next
week should bring southerly winds and WAA back to Georgia.
Temperatures should respond accordingly by rising into the lower 80s
Monday afternoon. Attention then turns to a potential cold frontal
passage Tuesday or Tuesday night. This may lead to midweek
temperature declines, with 70s favored on Wednesday. Trends in the
GEFS and EPS guidance continue to pull back on the rain chances,
with more than 90% of ensemble members keeping rain amounts under
0.10 inches in north Georgia. The odds of accumulating precipitation
in central Georgia are less than 5%.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Mostly likely timing
for storms continues be be after 00Z. However, isolated activity
is possible during the late afternoon. Added frequent gusts to
20kt for the afternoon. Brief period of MVFR cigs behind the
initial precip push. Sct MVFR cu on the back side of a front
tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          50  67  43  66 /  60  30  30   0
Atlanta         52  65  44  64 /  60  40  40   0
Blairsville     44  57  36  59 /  50  30  30   0
Cartersville    47  63  39  63 /  60  30  30   0
Columbus        53  71  46  68 /  60  30  30   0
Gainesville     49  63  43  65 /  60  30  30   0
Macon           54  71  47  69 /  70  20  20   0
Rome            47  63  41  63 /  50  30  30   0
Peachtree City  49  67  41  65 /  70  40  40   0
Vidalia         57  75  50  71 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
520 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-112130-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
520 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for much of north
Georgia and portions of central Georgia until midnight tonight.
The primary hazards with any severe storms will be damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph and quarter to golf ball sized hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon. A couple
strong storms with pea to penny size hail are possible between 2
PM and 8 PM.

Frost and freeze conditions may develop in northeast Georgia on
Friday night. On Saturday night, these conditions may spread to
all areas north of Interstate 85. Those with outdoor vegetation
that is sensitive to freezing temperatures should monitor the
forecast closely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
757 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

GAZ034-035-110030-
Barrow GA-Gwinnett GA-
757 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Barrow
and northeastern Gwinnett Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 757 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Hog Mountain, or 8
miles north of Lawrenceville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sugar Hill, Suwanee, County Line, Carl, Auburn, Dacula, Hog Mountain,
Buford, Winder, Duluth, Braselton, and Lawrenceville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
north central and northeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8374 3399 8373 3396 8382 3400 8413
      3403 8412 3405 8410 3406 8411 3416 8408
      3415 8406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 265DEG 20KT 3407 8394

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
801 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     Hail             3 S Emerson             34.08N 84.75W
04/10/2025  E2.00 Inch       Paulding           GA   Public

            Hen egg sized hail reported near Dabbs
            Bridge Road and Dripping Rock Trail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
803 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     Hail             2 SE GEORGE WASHINGTON  34.11N 84.65W
04/10/2025  E1.75 Inch       Cherokee           GA   Public

            Golf ball sized hail reported near Kellogg
            Creek Road and New Hope Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
806 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

GAZ044-053>055-110030-
Fayette GA-Clayton GA-Coweta GA-South Fulton GA-
806 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Fayette,
northeastern Coweta, south central Clayton and southern Fulton
Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 806 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Madras, or near Newnan,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Brooks, Fayetteville, Starrs Mill, Woolsey, Palmetto, Tyrone, Inman,
Peachtree City, Senoia, Cannongate, Jw Smith Reservoir, Sandy Creek,
Lake Horton, Thomas Crossroads, Madras, Newnan, Fairburn, and City of
South Fulton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
north central and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3359 8473 3345 8437 3339 8435 3335 8435
      3335 8439 3332 8439 3326 8445 3341 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 283DEG 35KT 3344 8470

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH