Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

A cold front will move south across the CWA overnight and into
tomorrow. Ahead of the frontal passage, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of north and
central portions of GA this afternoon and evening. The hi-res models
continue to be pretty consistent with the timing and with the
general trends.

A weak line of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue to move across northern portions of the state early this
afternoon. A second, stronger and more organized, wave of
convection is likely later this afternoon into the evening hours.
The organized convection axis has shifted somewhat south from
yesterday's runs...mainly along a path between metro ATL and
Columbus and areas southeast. Afternoon/evening storms will have
modest CAPE values (good heating/50s dewpoints) and steep lapse
rates. Forecast soundings also show a decent inverted V structure,
good for gusty storms. Still expecting large hail and damaging wind
gusts as the primary severe weather hazards.

Models continue to weaken the secondary wave of storms as it moves
into central portions of GA this evening. Seems reasonable with the
loss of heating and getting away from the main dynamic forcing to
the north.

Upper moves across the TN valley tomorrow. Models do tend to
underestimate the amount of cloud cover as these types of systems
move by, so have upped the sky grids a bit to compensate. Also, some
scattered shra possible as the low may provide just enough lift.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Key Messages:

 - The potential exists for overnight frost formation north of
   Interstate 85 and patchy sub freezing temperatures in the
   mountains this weekend.

 - Dry weather is favored in the region between Saturday and
   Thursday.

This Weekend:

An area of surface high pressure will build into the Southeast over
the weekend. This will combine with dry northwest flow aloft to
produce fairs skies, mild temperatures and dry weather. Weakening
surface pressure gradients should also lead to lighter winds in the
region (especially on Sunday). Radiational cooling should be
significant both Friday night and Saturday night and this may lead
to some frost/freeze concerns across northern Georgia. On Saturday
morning it looks like the coolest temperatures will be limited to
the sheltered areas in the mountains of northeast Georgia. Then on
Sunday morning the potential for at least Frost Advisory level
conditions exists along and north of Interstate 85. For the
northeast Georgia mountains there is a 50% chance of a Frost
Advisory (overnight lows below 36 degrees) Friday night into
Saturday morning, and a 50% chance of a Freeze Warning (overnight
lows below 32 degrees) Saturday night and Sunday morning. Along and
north of Interstate 85 there is a 40% chance of a Frost Advisory
Saturday night and Sunday morning.

High temperatures will struggle on Saturday due to continued
northwest winds and the resulting CAA. As a consequence afternoon
high temperatures should wallow in the lower 60s across north
Georgia and claw their way into the upper 60s in central Georgia.
High temperatures of this magnitude would be 7 to 12 degrees colder
than seasonal averages. A transition to westerly winds, continued
low relative humidity and sunshine should allow high temperatures to
climb to within 1-3 degrees of seasonal averages on Sunday.
Everywhere except the mountains can anticipate afternoon highs in
the 70s.

Considerations for Next Week:

An upper level trough tracking through the Great Lakes early next
week should bring southerly winds and WAA back to Georgia.
Temperatures should respond accordingly by rising into the lower 80s
Monday afternoon. Attention then turns to a potential cold frontal
passage Tuesday or Tuesday night. This may lead to midweek
temperature declines, with 70s favored on Wednesday. Trends in the
GEFS and EPS guidance continue to pull back on the rain chances,
with more than 90% of ensemble members keeping rain amounts under
0.10 inches in north Georgia. The odds of accumulating precipitation
in central Georgia are less than 5%.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Mostly likely timing
for storms continues be be after 00Z. However, isolated activity
is possible during the late afternoon. Added frequent gusts to
20kt for the afternoon. Brief period of MVFR cigs behind the
initial precip push. Sct MVFR cu on the back side of a front
tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          50  67  43  66 /  60  30  30   0
Atlanta         52  65  44  64 /  60  40  40   0
Blairsville     44  57  36  59 /  50  30  30   0
Cartersville    47  63  39  63 /  60  30  30   0
Columbus        53  71  46  68 /  60  30  30   0
Gainesville     49  63  43  65 /  60  30  30   0
Macon           54  71  47  69 /  70  20  20   0
Rome            47  63  41  63 /  50  30  30   0
Peachtree City  49  67  41  65 /  70  40  40   0
Vidalia         57  75  50  71 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
520 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-112130-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
520 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for much of north
Georgia and portions of central Georgia until midnight tonight.
The primary hazards with any severe storms will be damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph and quarter to golf ball sized hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon. A couple
strong storms with pea to penny size hail are possible between 2
PM and 8 PM.

Frost and freeze conditions may develop in northeast Georgia on
Friday night. On Saturday night, these conditions may spread to
all areas north of Interstate 85. Those with outdoor vegetation
that is sensitive to freezing temperatures should monitor the
forecast closely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
731 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

GAZ001-002-011-110000-
Chattooga GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
731 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Walker,
southwestern Dade and north central Chattooga Counties through 800 PM
EDT...

At 731 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Rising Fawn, or near
Trenton, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Naomi, Stephensville, Center Post, Rising Fawn, Linwood, Lafayette,
Suttles Mill, Noble, La Fayette, Trenton, Cloudland Canyon State
Park, and Cooper Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 8559 3475 8516 3472 8517 3472 8514
      3462 8514 3455 8525 3471 8555 3491 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 298DEG 38KT 3479 8551

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
732 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

GAZ024-025-027-110000-
Madison GA-Banks GA-Jackson GA-
732 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Banks, northeastern
Jackson and northwestern Madison Counties through 800 PM EDT...

At 732 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Maysville, or near
Homer, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Maysville, Pocataligo, Homer, Commerce, Banks Crossing, Ila, and
Gillsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
north central and northeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8339 3426 8334 3424 8334 3426 8330
      3425 8329 3424 8324 3417 8324 3422 8364
      3429 8363 3430 8362 3431 8363 3440 8362
      3440 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 279DEG 29KT 3430 8354

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
733 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

GAZ014-015-022>024-110000-
Banks GA-Hall GA-Dawson GA-Forsyth GA-Lumpkin GA-
733 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Forsyth, south central Lumpkin, west central Banks, southeastern
Dawson and Hall Counties through 800 PM EDT...

At 733 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over War Hill Park, or 9
miles west of Gainesville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Candler, Silver City, Gainesville, Chestatee, Murrayville,
Oscarville, Dougherty, Coal Mountain, Lula, Oakwood, Gillsville, and
War Hill Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
north central and northeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 8363 3429 8363 3417 8376 3427 8413
      3447 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 279DEG 29KT 3434 8398

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
734 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Hail             4 NNE Hollis Lathem Res 34.43N 84.23W
04/10/2025  E1.75 Inch       Dawson             GA   Public

            Golf ball sized hail reported along Highway
            53 near Padgett Road Circle.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

GAZ001-002-011-110015-
Chattooga GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
740 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Walker,
south central Dade and northwestern Chattooga Counties through 815 PM
EDT...

At 740 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Mentone, or 12 miles
northwest of Summerville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Center Post, Lafayette, La Fayette, Naomi, Suttles Mill, and Trion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 8522 3463 8518 3455 8520 3455 8552
      3468 8555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 265DEG 33KT 3461 8549

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
744 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     Hail             Aragon                  34.04N 85.06W
04/10/2025  E1.75 Inch       Polk               GA   Emergency Mngr

            Golf ball sized hail reported in Aragon.

&&