River Flood Warning 4, NWS Atlanta, GA

995 
WGUS82 KFFC 130126
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
826 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Sweetwater Creek near Austell affecting Douglas and Cobb Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&

GAC067-097-131330-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0004.250213T1700Z-250214T0925Z/
/AUSG1.1.ER.250213T1700Z.250214T0000Z.250214T0325Z.NO/
826 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE 
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sweetwater Creek near Austell.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon to late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...At 10 feet, Flood Stage is reached. Minor flooding 
  occurs in the woodlands and fields upstream and downstream from 
  the gage near the Interstate 20 bridge. Portions of a paintball 
  playing field just downstream of the bridge begin to flood. 
  Athletic fields in the Woodrow Wilson Park on Mount Vernon Road 
  begin to flood due to water backing up in ditches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 6.1 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 10.4 feet tomorrow
    evening. It will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 10 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8464 3385 8463 3380 8459 3374 8459
      3370 8463 3376 8466


$$

233 
WGUS82 KFFC 131005
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
505 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Sweetwater Creek near Austell affecting Douglas and Cobb Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&

GAC067-097-132215-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0004.250213T1216Z-250215T0130Z/
/AUSG1.1.ER.250213T1216Z.250213T1800Z.250214T1930Z.NO/
505 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sweetwater Creek near Austell.

* WHEN...Until Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 12 feet, Minor flooding continues in the woodlands 
  and fields upstream and downstream from the gage near the 
  Interstate 20 bridge. Portions of a paintball playing field just 
  downstream of the bridge and athletic fields in the Woodrow Wilson 
  Park on Mount Vernon Road are flooded with one to two feet of 
  water. A portion of Wren Circle in Douglas County...the County 
  Iron Works and Sunlight Drive in Cobb County begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:45 AM EST Thursday the stage was 9.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this morning to a crest of 12.1 feet this afternoon. It will
    then fall below flood stage early tomorrow afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 10 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8464 3385 8463 3380 8459 3374 8459
      3370 8463 3376 8466


$$

650 
WGUS42 KFFC 131338
FLWFFC

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
838 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Sweetwater Creek near Austell affecting Cobb and Douglas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

GAC067-097-140300-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250215T0000Z/
/AUSG1.2.ER.250213T1310Z.250214T0000Z.250214T1800Z.NO/
838 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Sweetwater Creek near Austell.

* WHEN...Until Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 13 feet, Moderate flooding begins. Significant 
  flooding occurs in the woodlands and fields upstream and 
  downstream from the gage near the Interstate 20 bridge. Portions 
  of a paintball playing field just downstream of the bridge and 
  athletic fields in the Woodrow Wilson Park on Mount Vernon Road 
  are flooded with 2 to 3 feet of water. Water begins to flood a few 
  mobile homes on Brook Forest Road and homes on Wren Circle in 
  Douglas County. Portions of Sunlight Drive in Cobb County will be 
  flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 AM EST Thursday the stage was 10 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.1
    feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage
    tomorrow afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 10 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8464 3385 8463 3380 8459 3374 8459
      3370 8463 3376 8466


$$

949 
WGUS82 KFFC 131955
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Sweetwater Creek near Austell affecting Cobb and Douglas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

GAC067-097-140800-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250215T1327Z/
/AUSG1.2.ER.250213T1310Z.250214T1200Z.250215T0727Z.NO/
255 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Sweetwater Creek near Austell.

* WHEN...Until Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 13 feet, Moderate flooding begins. Significant 
  flooding occurs in the woodlands and fields upstream and 
  downstream from the gage near the Interstate 20 bridge. Portions 
  of a paintball playing field just downstream of the bridge and 
  athletic fields in the Woodrow Wilson Park on Mount Vernon Road 
  are flooded with 2 to 3 feet of water. Water begins to flood a few 
  mobile homes on Brook Forest Road and homes on Wren Circle in 
  Douglas County. Portions of Sunlight Drive in Cobb County will be 
  flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:45 PM EST Thursday the stage was 10.7 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.1
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 10 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8464 3385 8463 3380 8459 3374 8459
      3370 8463 3376 8466


$$

280 
WGUS82 KFFC 140219
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
919 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Sweetwater Creek near Austell affecting Cobb and Douglas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&

GAC067-097-141430-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250215T1327Z/
/AUSG1.2.ER.250213T1310Z.250214T1800Z.250215T0750Z.NO/
919 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Sweetwater Creek near Austell.

* WHEN...Until Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 11.6 feet, Minor flooding continues in the woodlands 
  and fields upstream and downstream from the gage near the 
  Interstate 20 bridge. Portions of a paintball playing field just 
  downstream of the bridge and athletic fields in the Woodrow Wilson 
  Park on Mount Vernon Road are flooded with one to two feet of 
  water. A portion of Wren Circle in Douglas County...the County 
  Iron Works and Sunlight Drive in Cobb County begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 11.6 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 PM EST Thursday was 11.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.3
    feet early tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below flood
    stage early Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    13.3 feet on 12/22/1951.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8464 3385 8463 3380 8459 3374 8459
      3370 8463 3376 8466


$$

871 
WGUS82 KFFC 141131
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
631 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Sweetwater Creek near Austell affecting Cobb and Douglas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&

GAC067-097-142345-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250215T1350Z/
/AUSG1.2.ER.250213T1310Z.250214T1800Z.250215T0750Z.NO/
631 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Sweetwater Creek near Austell.

* WHEN...Until Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins. Significant 
  flooding occurs in the woodlands and fields upstream and 
  downstream from the gage near the Interstate 20 bridge. Portions 
  of a paintball playing field just downstream of the bridge and 
  athletic fields in the Woodrow Wilson Park on Mount Vernon Road 
  are flooded with 2 to 3 feet of water. Water begins to flood a few 
  mobile homes on Brook Forest Road and homes on Wren Circle in 
  Douglas County. Portions of Sunlight Drive in Cobb County will be 
  flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:15 AM EST Friday the stage was 12.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 6:15 AM EST Friday was 12.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.3
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage just
    after midnight tonight.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    13.3 feet on 12/22/1951.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8464 3385 8463 3380 8459 3374 8459
      3370 8463 3376 8466


$$

358 
WGUS82 KFFC 141637
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1137 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

...Forecast flooding changed to Minor severity and increased in 
duration for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Sweetwater Creek upstream of Railroad at Austell affecting Cobb 
  and Douglas Counties.

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Sweetwater Creek near Austell affecting Cobb and Douglas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&

GAC067-097-150000-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-250214T2358Z/
/NATG1.1.ER.250213T2155Z.250214T0830Z.250214T1758Z.UU/
1137 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sweetwater Creek upstream of Railroad at Austell.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 19 feet, Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding of 
  woodlands and the natural flood plain occurs upstream and 
  downstream from the gage near the railroad bridge parallel to Joe 
  Jerkins Boulevard. Large portions of Legion Park will be flooded 
  with up to two feet of water. Low lying areas of Garrett Road...
  Westside Road and Stovall Road will begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:45 AM EST Friday the stage was 19.3 feet and falling.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 10:45 AM EST Friday was 19.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this afternoon and continue falling through Saturday.
  - Flood stage is 19 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3379 8469 3385 8470 3385 8463 3379 8464


$$

GAC067-097-150445-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250215T1431Z/
/AUSG1.2.ER.250213T1310Z.250214T1800Z.250215T0831Z.NO/
1137 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and minor flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Sweetwater Creek near Austell.

* WHEN...Until Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 13 feet, Moderate flooding begins. Significant 
  flooding occurs in the woodlands and fields upstream and 
  downstream from the gage near the Interstate 20 bridge. Portions 
  of a paintball playing field just downstream of the bridge and 
  athletic fields in the Woodrow Wilson Park on Mount Vernon Road 
  are flooded with 2 to 3 feet of water. Water begins to flood a few 
  mobile homes on Brook Forest Road and homes on Wren Circle in 
  Douglas County. Portions of Sunlight Drive in Cobb County will be 
  flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:15 AM EST Friday the stage was 12.9 feet and cresting.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to remain at 13.0 feet this
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late tonight.
  - Flood stage is 10 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3379 8464 3385 8463 3380 8459 3374 8459
      3370 8463 3376 8466


$$

942 
WGUS82 KFFC 150156
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
856 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Sweetwater Creek near Austell affecting Cobb and Douglas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&

GAC067-097-151400-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250215T1742Z/
/AUSG1.1.ER.250213T1310Z.250214T1815Z.250215T1142Z.NO/
856 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sweetwater Creek near Austell.

* WHEN...Until Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 12 feet, Minor flooding continues in the woodlands 
  and fields upstream and downstream from the gage near the 
  Interstate 20 bridge. Portions of a paintball playing field just 
  downstream of the bridge and athletic fields in the Woodrow Wilson 
  Park on Mount Vernon Road are flooded with one to two feet of 
  water. A portion of Wren Circle in Douglas County...the County 
  Iron Works and Sunlight Drive in Cobb County begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 PM EST Friday the stage was 12.7 feet and falling.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow morning and continue falling to 3.6 feet Wednesday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 10 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8464 3385 8463 3380 8459 3374 8459
      3370 8463 3376 8466


$$

317 
WGUS82 KFFC 151032
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
532 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Sweetwater Creek near Austell affecting Cobb and Douglas Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Coahulla Creek at Keiths Mill Road near Dalton affecting 
  Whitfield County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&

GAC067-097-151800-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250215T1754Z/
/AUSG1.1.ER.250213T1310Z.250214T1815Z.250215T1154Z.NO/
532 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Sweetwater Creek near Austell.

* WHEN...Until this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, Minor flooding continues in the woodlands 
  and fields upstream and downstream from the gage near the 
  Interstate 20 bridge. Portions of a paintball playing field just 
  downstream of the bridge and athletic fields in the Woodrow Wilson 
  Park on Mount Vernon Road are flooded with one to two feet of 
  water. A portion of Wren Circle in Douglas County...the County 
  Iron Works and Sunlight Drive in Cobb County begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:15 AM EST Saturday the stage was 11.8 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:15 AM EST Saturday was 13.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this morning and continue falling to 3.6 feet Wednesday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    11.8 feet on 01/05/2023.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8464 3385 8463 3380 8459 3374 8459
      3370 8463 3376 8466


$$

GAC313-152245-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250216T0058Z/
/CHCG1.1.ER.250213T0510Z.250215T0015Z.250215T1858Z.NO/
532 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Coahulla Creek at Keiths Mill Road near Dalton.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, Minor flooding continues to expand into 
  the pastures...fields and woodlands upstream and downstream from 
  the Keiths Mill Road bridge. Some areas will be under 4 feet of 
  water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:00 AM EST Saturday the stage was 19.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:00 AM EST Saturday was 19.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this afternoon and continue falling to 12.6 feet this
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    19.0 feet on 05/09/2024.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3471 8489 3480 8495 3488 8495 3488 8486
      3480 8488 3474 8486


$$

530 
WGUS82 KFFC 151349
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
849 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...Forecast flooding changed to Minor severity and increased in 
duration for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Sweetwater Creek near Austell affecting Douglas and Cobb Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

GAC067-097-160200-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250216T0218Z/
/AUSG1.1.ER.250213T1310Z.250214T1815Z.250215T2018Z.NO/
849 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Sweetwater Creek near Austell.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 12 feet, Minor flooding continues in the woodlands 
  and fields upstream and downstream from the gage near the 
  Interstate 20 bridge. Portions of a paintball playing field just 
  downstream of the bridge and athletic fields in the Woodrow Wilson 
  Park on Mount Vernon Road are flooded with one to two feet of 
  water. A portion of Wren Circle in Douglas County...the County 
  Iron Works and Sunlight Drive in Cobb County begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 AM EST Saturday the stage was 11.3 feet and falling.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this afternoon and continue falling to 5.0 feet Sunday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 10 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8464 3385 8463 3380 8459 3374 8459
      3370 8463 3376 8466


$$

735 
WGUS82 KFFC 152118
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
418 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Sweetwater Creek near Austell affecting Cobb and Douglas Counties.

GAC067-097-152230-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250215T2118Z/
/AUSG1.1.ER.250213T1310Z.250214T1815Z.250215T2031Z.NO/
418 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Sweetwater Creek near Austell.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 PM EST Saturday the stage was 9.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 3.0 feet Thursday
    morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8464 3385 8463 3380 8459 3374 8459
      3370 8463 3376 8466


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Key Messages:

  - A Flood Watch remains in effect for north Georgia and the
northern portions of the Atlanta metro from this afternoon until
Thursday morning. Moderate to heavy rain is currently falling across
the watch area. Another 1-3" of rain is expected to fall with
locally higher amounts of up to 4" possible where repeated rounds of
precipitation occur. TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN when encountering
flooded roadways.

  - A few strong to severe storms may be possible overnight
Wednesday in primarily west central Georgia. Slight risk into metro
is very conditional, given wedge should make surface based
convection challenging. In west central Georgia, QLCS mode will be
possible, with main threats strong to severe winds and a tornado or
two.

Forecast:

Challenging forecast continues to unfold for tonight, with competing
effects of strong moisture return at the surface and stout wedge/CAD
that is being reinforced by rain and supported by surface high
pressure up till a cold front moves into the area tonight. The
impacts of this will be that an area around approximately
Heard/Coweta/Troup/Meriwether has pretty high uncertainty on
whether or not we can get enough surface based moisture return to
allow for surface based storms which could be severe and have all
hazards present. To the north, expect mostly rain and thunder, and
to the south, at least for west central Georgia, including the
Columbus metro, strong to severe storms will be possible.

The synoptic setup sees a potent upper level trough that is lifting
out of the desert SW into the southeast today. That trough is tapped
into some very deep subtropical moisture, with PWATs approaching or
even exceeding 1.25-1.5" over a wide area within the broad synoptic
lift driven by the system. That moisture is overrunning three
separate features - first, on old frontal boundary that is already
falling apart near the Gulf coast, second, a rain cooled air mass,
the boundary of which can currently be denoted by sharp line of
cumulus over south central Alabama, and third, strong wedge/CAD that
has set up over north and parts of central Georgia that is being
reinforced by both rain and surface high across NE CONUS.
Temperature differences between the warm Gulf air across southern GA
and the rain cooled and wedge airmass across central and north GA is
stark, with near 30 degree F differences noted at station as little
as 30 miles apart (Cordele to Perry), demonstrating some of the
impressive dynamics at play with this system.

Models are notably struggling with the CAD as expected. As an
example, each run of the HRRR this afternoon has had to slow the
northward progression of the Gulf air into central GA. This is a
well known bias, and is why temperatures have been lowered compared
to guidance for the past several forecast packages for today.
Satellite observations as well as ground stations seem to show that
the northward progression of Gulf air in at least west central
Georgia may have finally hit a bit of a more challenging wall that
it can't quite seem to mix out as quickly. This is likely due to
encountered air that is rain cooled within the wedge. Erosion on the
east side of central Georgia will likely continue for a few more
counties, so enjoy going from the 50s and 60s to 70s and 80s in a
matter of an hour or two in those areas.

Moisture continues to be lifted isentropically over the top of cold
air, and with the high PWATs, is dumping rainfall quite efficiently
over north Georgia and metro Atlanta. MRMS estimates show widespread
1-3 inches of rain has already fallen, and radar estimates look as
though they may be a bit underdone compared to observations coming
in from some rain gauges. Expecting to see another 1-3" of rain
across the area tonight. This will lead to flooding concerns across
north Georgia and the metro. Several rivers are starting to see
quick rises with a few flood warnings already issued. This will
become more widespread overnight. Numerous river gages are forecast
to go Minor flood stage, and flood guidance continues to show the
possibility of seeing a few rivers into Moderate. The Flood Watch
continues until 7 am tomorrow morning. Please remember to use
caution if you encounter any flooding - do not attempt to cross
flooded roadways.

The final aspect to talk about is the severe potential tonight into
the early morning hours Thursday. As mentioned above, this is the
most challenging part of this storm. Still believe that the northern
end of the Slight/Marginal Risk from SPC is extremely conditional,
especially into the Atlanta metro. Experience and model bias says
that the hires is likely eroding the CAD too quickly as the cold
front moves into the area tonight with the main push of the
surface low to the north. This would eliminate the possibility of
surface based convection - and indeed, many of the models seem to
be slowly backing to the south with moisture return tonight. 17Z
HRRR only brings STP > 1 into areas around and just north of
Columbus, for instance. That said, the outlook in the areas can be
viewed as a worst case scenario, where IF erosion of the wedge is
more intense (and, this could be possible given the intensity of
the LLJ at > 60 kts creating some aggressive mixing) surface based
convection will be possible. As for the rest of the parameter
space in central Georgia (especially near Columbus), models show
STP values of around 1-2. Significant divergence aloft will be in
place along the right entrance region of a stout jet streak and
impressive shear profiles will be in place and enhanced by some
low level backing near the edge of the CAD/wedge. SRH values of
0-1 km are 200-300 m^2/s^2 (though caution needs to be used when
evaluating this to ensure parcels are indeed surface based). Some
streamwise vorticity enhancement will be possible for any surface
based storm that can find the "edge of the wedge". Cold front
pushing in is fairly potent, though convergence without the aid of
some of the backing due to the wedge front isn't all that
impressive given a SW wind direction at the surface ahead of it.
Thinking any severe mode for Georgia will likely be QLCS in
variety. The main hazards would be strong to severe winds, and the
possibility of some tornado spin ups.

Front continues to push through the area tomorrow morning. Severe
threat should decrease quickly with eastward extent thanks to losing
upper level support. Colder air will begin to filter in behind the
front. In parts of north Georgia, we might actually see the sun for
the first time in what feels like ages. Temperatures tomorrow night
will return to more winter-like, with lows in the 20s, 30s, and
upper 40s across north and central Georgia by Friday morning. Enjoy
the respite from rain because more is coming - see below.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

At a glance:

    - Brief reprieve from rainfall on Friday

    - Second round of heavy rain and yet another conditional severe
    threat overnight Saturday into Sunday

As we kick off the extended range on Friday morning, a strong
(nearly 1040mb) surface high will move in across the Southeast,
shifting slowly eastward until its center is off the coast of the
Eastern Seaboard at the start of the weekend. Perhaps unsurprisingly
with such strong forcing at the surface, classic cold air damming is
progged to set up throughout the course of the day Friday -- with
characteristic U-shaped isobars banking up against the Appalachians.
The combination of high pressure at the surface and a swath of dry
air rounding the base of a broader trough present at the mid-levels
will support a fleeting period of dry weather on Friday. Highs in
the mid-50s to lower-70s and dewpoints in the 30s to 40s by the
afternoon will make for a pleasant end to the week...

...but don't get too comfortable. A mid-level trough is progged to
dig across the Mountain West and into the ArkLaTex Saturday into
Sunday. Coincident with the strongest shortwave embedded within the
broader trough, resultant mass response supports the development of
a low pressure system at the surface. We're expecting a final,
punctuating round of rainfall and conditional chances for severe
weather as the associated line of convection makes its way across
north and central Georgia overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Severe chances: Much like Wednesday/Thursday's event, the brunt of
the favorable forcing overlap will occur late Saturday night/early
Sunday morning, making this a primarily nocturnal event (changes in
timing are possible, perhaps even likely as this event enters the
short term). We're not yet in range of HiRes or intermediary
guidance, but global models suggest the presence of a 40-50kt low
level jet at 925 mb as the line is trekking southeastward. As has
been the case recently, we'll be fighting against a lingering wedge
for areas along and east of the Atlanta Metro for thermodynamics.
Wind profile differences along the outer edge of the wedge boundary
will serve to further locally enhance hodograph curvature. Dewpoints
look to be in the 60s outside of the wedge airmass, but it remains
to be seen if we materialize any surface-based instability. It won't
take much with the forecast kinematics, and we're currently sitting
on a very narrow corridor on the order of 50-100 J/kg SBCAPE. We're
solidly within high-shear, low-CAPE season, and if trends continue,
it appears that we'll be looking at primarily QLCS-type hazards
(isolated damaging wind gusts and the potential for a tornado within
any bulges, kinks, or breaks in the line of convection). The SPC has
outlined a 15% area in their Day 4 (7AM Saturday through 7AM Sunday)
Convective Outlook, and we'll be keeping an eye on potential
upgrades and specific hazard probabilities over the next few days.

Precipitation/flooding chances: The rebound period between our
midweek rainfall and our weekend rainfall looks to be approximately
48 hours or so, and rivers are likely to remain at elevated stages
at the onset of this final round of precipitation. Given antecedent
conditions, it will not take much to reinvigorate chances for flash
flooding and river flooding. Highest NBM probabilities for an inch
or more rainfall over the 48-hour period ending 7AM Monday are once
again focused across locales in north Georgia: 76% for Atlanta, 81%
for Rome, 80% for Gainesville, 86% for Dalton, and 90% for Ellijay.
For 2 inches or greater over the same 48-hour period, 35-45%
probabilities for portions of far north Georgia. In general, blanket
totals of an additional 1-2" are possible CWA-wide late Saturday
through early Monday, with terrain-enhanced locally higher amounts
up to a reasonable worst case (90th percentile) of 3-3.5". A
Slight (level 2 out of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been
issued by WPC for portions of northwest Georgia coincident with
highest forecast rainfall totals.

Moving into Monday and beyond, yet another surface high moves in on
the heels of the precipitation (with dry, quasi-zonal flow at the
mid-levels), which will support another period of dry and relatively
tranquil weather through midweek. In general, expect highs in the
lower 50s to mid-60s through the long term. The exceptions will be
the warmest day over the next week -- Sunday -- which may see
highs in the 60s to mid-70s, and the "coldest" -- Monday -- with
highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Lows will follow a similar trend,
primarily in the upper-20s to mid-40s, aside from Sunday morning
(upper 40s to lower 60s) and Monday morning (teens to lower-30s).

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

IFR to LIFR conditions are widespread across metro TAF sites.
These conditions should remain in place through the night into
early tomorrow morning. Cigs may bounce up or down a bit depending
on rain intensity, but should remain at least IFR or lower. RA
(sometimes +RA) is impacting sites and will continue through
overnight. Push of heavier rain with embedded TSRA expected
between 05-10Z across metro. East winds to start at 10-15 kts will
shift northwest between 09-11Z in metro, going 10-15 kts with
gusts above 20kts by the afternoon. Cigs should improve rapidly
tomorrow, going VFR by 15Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium overnight cigs (could be a touch higher in heavier rain).
High all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          39  64  32  54 /  90  50   0   0
Atlanta         42  59  33  55 / 100  30   0   0
Blairsville     42  52  23  51 / 100  10   0   0
Cartersville    42  56  27  55 / 100  10   0   0
Columbus        61  67  37  61 /  90  60   0   0
Gainesville     37  60  31  52 / 100  20   0   0
Macon           55  69  37  60 /  80  80   0   0
Rome            43  55  26  56 / 100   0   0   0
Peachtree City  46  61  30  57 /  90  30   0   0
Vidalia         63  72  45  61 /  20  90  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-030>035-041>048-052>057-066>068.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Lusk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
308 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-132015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
308 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday morning across
portions of north and central Georgia. Moderate to heavy rainfall
is currently occurring across north Georgia and the Atlanta metro.
Another 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts up to 4" will be
possible on top of what has already fallen. Minor flooding of
rivers, creeks, and streams is likely.

A broken line of thunderstorms will approach west Georgia tonight.
Some of the storms could be strong, and an isolated severe storm
will be possible in west central Georgia. Severe storms that
develop may produce damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two cannot
be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Another round of potentially heavy rainfall and scattered
thunderstorms will move through Saturday into Sunday. River
flooding may linger through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
213 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

GAZ033-044-045-053>055-057-122000-
Fayette GA-North Fulton GA-Clayton GA-Coweta GA-DeKalb GA-Henry GA-
South Fulton GA-
213 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...An area of heavy rainfall will impact portions of DeKalb,
Fayette, northwestern Henry, Coweta, Fulton and Clayton Counties
through 300 PM EST...

At 210 PM EST, an area of heavy rainfall was along a line extending
from near Newnan to Lilburn, and moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
         in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Newnan, Decatur, Fayetteville, Jonesboro, City of South
Fulton, Sandy Springs, Dunwoody, Peachtree City, East Point,
Stockbridge, Union City, Forest Park, Riverdale, College Park,
Fairburn, Chamblee, Doraville, Clarkston, and Tyrone.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 8429 3394 8427 3392 8426 3387 8420
      3387 8418 3375 8405 3364 8415 3364 8418
      3363 8418 3362 8417 3341 8436 3324 8464
      3337 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 231DEG 26KT 3390 8407 3338 8477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH