Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
652 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Afternoon radar imagery shows some showers developing near the
coastal plains region. With continued heating, some of this activity
is expected may drift northward into the I-35 corridor. Some of the
hi-res models show this scenario and an earlier update to the
forecast was made to increase rain chances slightly for areas mainly
along and east of I-35 through early evening. The other area that
will need to be monitored for convection will be out west across the
Rio Grande plains into the southern Edwards Plateau. Cu is already
developing across the Trans Pecos southward into the Serranias del
Burro mountains and with noted instability on recent SPC
mesoanalysis, this area will likely see continued convection this
afternoon and evening. Some of this activity may move eastward into
the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau during the late
afternoon and evening hours. For the remainder of the evening into
the overnight hours, there are differing solutions noted among the
hi-res models. Current thinking is there will be a complex of storms
move eastward, with low confidence as to where the more organized
convection will occur. Suspect the west central Texas area may see an
MCS roll through, with perhaps some of this activity clipping part of
the Hill Country. The latest SPC outlook shows little change, with
Val Verde and far northwestern Edwards county in a Slight Risk (Level
2 of 5) and the Hill Country in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) over
the Hill Country. Rain chances tomorrow will be largely dominated by
what occurs overnight. For now, we have opted to trend a little below
the NBM and show mainly scattered coverage for the Hill Country
eastward into the I-35 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Southwest flow aloft remains entrenched across the region on Thursday
and Friday. Additional convection remains possible as the dryline
looks to remain active across west Texas. The NBM Pop numbers look
too high and have opted to go a little below based on timing
differences with shortwave troughs. Rain chances look to decrease for
the upcoming weekend into early next week as the subtropical ridge
axis builds in from the south. We will keep most areas dry for now
along with temperatures remaining above normal. The pattern looks to
become a little more active as we head toward the middle of next
week with an increase in southwest flow aloft. In addition, a cold
front could move in just beyond the current forecast period and add
an additional focus for convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected for all area terminals for at least the
next 4 to 5 hours (4z/05z). MVFR conditions are anticipated for all
of the I-35 corridor sites through late Wednesday morning/early
afternoon. For KDRT, some showers and even a few thunderstorms are
possible this evening but confidence is low as latest model guidance
keep the activity to the north and south of the terminal. MVFR
conditions are expected overnight through late Monday morning with a
slight chance for IFR cigs between 11z and 16z time frame. Later in
the afternoon, a line of showers and storms could affect KAUS and
KSAT and have added a PROB30 group to account for that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  83  69  87 /  30  50  20  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  83  68  86 /  30  50  20  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  84  69  87 /  30  50  20  40
Burnet Muni Airport            67  82  67  84 /  30  50  30  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  87  71  88 /  30  20  40  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  82  67  85 /  30  50  30  50
Hondo Muni Airport             68  83  68  86 /  30  40  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  83  68  87 /  30  50  20  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  84  70  86 /  20  50  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  83  70  86 /  30  50  20  40
Stinson Muni Airport           71  85  71  88 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...27
Aviation...17