Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
841 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms tonight into early Saturday
  morning across the majority of South-Central Texas. Large hail
  and  damaging straight-line wind gusts are the primary threats,
  through an isolated tornado two can't be ruled out.
- Flood Watch in effect for the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill
  Country, and I-35 corridor tonight through Saturday morning. 1
  to 3 inches of rainfall on average with isolated pockets up to 5
  inches could lead to life-threatning flash flooding.
- Warm temperatures through early next week, then much cooler,
  below average temperatures middle to late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

The much advertised line of showers and thunderstorms has
developed and will move across the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country,
and I-35 corridor over the next several hours. Damaging winds is
the main threat with large hail also possible. As a result, Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 630 has been issued through 3 AM CDT Saturday
morning. The forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

A potent upper level trough over the southern Rockies today will
move east into the southern Plains on Saturday. Ahead of this, an
unseasonably moist airmass is in place over South Central Texas,
with precipitable water values of around 1.7-2.0 inches pooling
today through Saturday morning ahead of the associated weak Pacific
cold front. These values are around the 95th percentile for this
time of year. A moderate lower level flow and heating is generating
isolated showers midday along and east of the I-37 and I-35
corridors. This will continue through late afternoon.

Attention this evening turns out west. Height falls and lead
shortwave will assist in upstream convective development across the
Permian Basin and Big Bend later this afternoon. The convection is
forecast by most CAMs to organize into a line of storms across the
southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country between 7PM-11PM,
moving east and reaching the I-35 corridor 11PM to 3AM. Eventually
the line of storms is forecast to reach the Coastal Plains between
1AM and 5AM Saturday. Actual arrival time could be slightly early if
more robust cold pooling occurs behind the line. Moderate mid
level lapse rates, shear, and instability indicates a potential
for severe storms with damaging winds and hail the main threats.
An isolated tornado or two can't be rule out. There is currently a
level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms tonight into early
Saturday morning for the majority of South-Central Texas.

Most guidance agrees there will be a break in convection after
tonight's line of storms works over the atmosphere and stabilize
conditions. However, some CAMs are indicating de-stabiliization
occurring mid to late afternoon Saturday across portions of the
eastern Hill Country, I-35 corridor north of San Antonio, and
Coastal Plains as partial clearing occurring and the last forcing in
the base of the trough moves across the region. With steep, elevated
lapse rates and moderate wind shear still in place there will be a
threat of isolated strong to severe storms across these areas late
afternoon, with large hail the main threat. This will be a
conditional threat on de-stabilization actually occurring. SPC
currently has a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Saturday
across portions of the eastern Hill Country, I-35 corridor north
of San Antonio, and Coastal Plains

HREF LPMM is showing the potential for a widespread 1 to 3 inches
of rainfall tonight through early Saturday evening, with isolated
pockets up to 5 inches. While training is not anticipated and
drought conditions exist, the rainfall rates will become the
issue, with most of this rainfall occurring quickly with the line
of storms tonight into early morning. This could lead to flash
flooding issues of streams and creeks, as well as low water
crossings, across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau,
as well as a threat for urban flash flooding along the I-35
corridor. WPC has a level 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall
that could lead to flash flooding for these areas of south-central
Texas. We have issued A Flood Watch for this region from 7PM
tonight through 1 PM Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1238 pm CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

A dry northwesterly flow aloft keeps rain out of the forecast for
Sunday through next week. However, the passage of a cold front may
produce a few showers on Tuesday across the Coastal Plains. A
warming trend on Sunday into Monday abruptly ends on Tuesday with
this cold frontal passage and associated strong cold advection
bringing the coldest air of the season for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

VFR conditions presently prevail across the region. However, a
broken line of TSRA is expected to begin moving west to east
between 01Z to 12Z with lingering SHRA or TSRA possible. Based on
latest high resolution models, the line of storms will likely take
on a more contiguous north to south orientation between KAUS and
KSAT with its southern extent bent more west to east between KSAT
and KDRT. These storms have the potential for isolated severe
wind, hail, and heavy rain. Initial impacts to terminals are
possible at KDRT by 01Z and at KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF by 06Z. Expect
lowered CIGs in vicinity of these storms to at least MVFR.
Further regional degradation to IFR is also possible in KDRT and
vicinity. Storms and rain intensity should gradually taper off
after 12Z with lifting CIGs, but we continue to monitor potential
for isolated to scattered TSRA mainly after 18Z near KAUS and
vicinity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  82  64  85 /  90  60  40   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  83  63  84 /  90  60  40   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  85  63  87 /  90  50  30   0
Burnet Muni Airport            65  78  61  82 /  90  70  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           68  88  61  89 /  80  20   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  78  61  83 /  90  70  30   0
Hondo Muni Airport             65  85  61  88 /  90  20  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  85  62  87 /  90  50  40   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  83  64  84 /  80  80  60  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  85  65  87 /  90  40  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           70  88  66  89 /  90  30  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for TXZ171>173-183>194-
202>208.

&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...Tran

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