Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
118 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather with multiple chances for showers/storms
  expected this afternoon/evening through early next week

- Potential for isolated flash flooding from slow moving storms
  this afternoon through at least Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

Latest Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis (17Z) shows an
upper level ridge over the four corners region and an upper level
inverted trough (likely an MCV) moving over the eastern Texas coast.
Area Doppler radars have been detecting moderate to heavy showers
across the coastal plains including parts of Lee to Gonzales to
DeWitt counties late this morning. This trend is forecast to
continue for the rest of the afternoon through mid evening as the
upper level inverted trough moves westward. The combination of
precipitable water values around 2.0 to 2.4 inches, sea breeze
convergence, and the passage of the inverted trough/MCV is likely to
result in episodes of heavy downpours over parts of the Hill
Country, I-35 corridor, and coastal plains areas. One to two inches
of rainfall can't be ruled out over some of these areas with
isolated up to three inches if showers/storms slowly track over same
locations. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) updated Excessive
Rainfall Outlook (ERO) Day One now highlights parts of the Hill
Country, I-35 corridor, and coastal plains under a marginal risk
(level 1 of 4) of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. With the
loss of daytime heating and the MCV pushing to the southwest this
evening into the overnight period, rain chances transfer into parts
of the the Rio Grande. Rainfall amounts over these areas could range
from a trace to one quarter inch.

By Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the four corners region
remains there while an upper level trough axis pushes over north
Texas tracking to the south. Also, today's MCV is forecast to
linger across northeast Mexico/Rio Grande area to add
instability to the local area for rounds of moderate to heavy
showers across most locations of south central Texas. WPC ERO
Day Two highlights marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of rainfall
exceeding flash flood guidance for most of the local area with
the exception of the southern part of the Rio Grande. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with isolated 3 inches
over some spots.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

The wet and stormy weather pattern continues on Thursday as a
frontal boundary pushes into our area with plenty of moisture in
place. Rounds of moderate to heavy showers are possible over
most locations of south central Texas mainly during the
afternoon and evening periods. The frontal boundary could linger
around the coastal plains on Friday for more moderate to heavy
showers especially for parts of the I-35 corridor and coastal
plains locations. the weekend looks a bit drier, however, rounds
of showers and storms are possible each afternoon and early
evening periods.

Highs temperatures are likely to be slightly above average on
Wednesday and Thursday and around average on Friday into the
weekend. Overnight lows remain in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
VFR conditions are expected outside of any reductions this afternoon
and evening with thunderstorm activity. The greatest chances for
thunderstorms remain at SAT/SSF westward including over the Hill
Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Around DRT
and AUS, PROB30 groups are still warranted with more isolated storm
activity expected near those locations. Some wind gusts in excess of
30KT are possible in and near TSRA activity, otherwise wind will
mainly be below 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 100  76  97 /  10  40  40  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76 100  76  97 /  10  40  40  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  99  74  97 /  20  30  30  60
Burnet Muni Airport            75  96  74  94 /  10  40  40  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 101  78  98 /  30  20  30  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  99  75  97 /  10  40  40  50
Hondo Muni Airport             72  99  75  96 /  30  20  20  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        73 101  74  97 /  10  30  30  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  98  75  94 /  10  40  40  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  99  78  97 /  20  30  30  60
Stinson Muni Airport           76 101  78  98 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...17
Aviation...27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
248 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

TXZ187-203-204-192030-
Uvalde TX-Medina TX-Bandera TX-
248 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Medina,
Bandera and northeastern Uvalde Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 248 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Camp Verde to near Bandera to near Mico.
Movement was west at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Hondo, Bandera, Vanderpool, Tarpley, D'Hanis, New Fountain,
Quihi, Mico, Utopia, Hill Country State Natural Area, Lost Maples
State Natural Area, Lakehills, and Lake Medina Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2956 9959 2991 9960 2990 9918 2985 9907
      2972 9903 2947 9882 2928 9932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 074DEG 22KT 2988 9919 2970 9914 2953 9899

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
300 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

TXZ183-192045-
Val Verde TX-
300 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Val
Verde County through 345 PM CDT...

At 300 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Loma Alta, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Loma Alta, Devils Shores, Pafford Crossing, Vinegarone, Rough Canyon
Recreation Area, and Devils River State Nat Area Big Satan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2998 10079 2992 10070 2972 10070 2949 10087
      2969 10114
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 034DEG 17KT 2983 10079

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
302 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

TXZ184-185-202>204-192100-
Uvalde TX-Kinney TX-Medina TX-Edwards TX-Real TX-
302 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Medina,
eastern Kinney, Uvalde, southwestern Edwards and western Real
Counties through 400 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of Rocksprings to near Laguna.
Movement was west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Uvalde, Brackettville, Rocksprings, Leakey, Spofford, Sabinal, Camp
Wood, Laguna, Barksdale, Tuff, Concan, Vance, Dabney, Cline,
Anacacho, Reagan Wells, Alamo Village, Knippa, Blewett, and Rio Frio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2909 10041 3006 10054 3007 10003 2928 9931
      2908 10030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 073DEG 19KT 3004 10007 2936 10001

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

62