Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
557 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

After collaboration with SPC a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been
issued for portions of the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau
through 2 AM. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary
hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Key Messages:

- Rounds of locally heavy rainfall with isolated to scattered
  instances of flooding

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
  large hail as the main hazards

This morning’s storm complex had weakened as it moved from the Hill
Country into portions of the I-35 corridor. The head of the mesoscale
convective vortex (MCV) pivoted northeastward into the Fort Worth
CWA where greater coverage of showers and storms are located early
this afternoon. There was a bit of redevelopment of activity across
the coastal plains and into Val Verde County with a little bit of
daytime heating. However, majority of this activity has moved out of
the region or has faded over past hour or two. Rest of this afternoon
into early evening looks to mainly trend fair with the lowest
rain/storm chances in the short term.

A more active period of weather will return during later in the
evening through the overnight as another storm complex will establish
from west Texas into Mexico, and this complex is then expected to
slide from west to east through the region. Additionally, several of
the HREF members show development ahead of the complex with a
possible remnant outflow boundary as well. Heavy rainfall will be the
greatest concern with this activity featuring robust rainfall rates
that could result in a quick 1 to 2 inches or more of rainfall across
the area. This would yield to the potential for isolated to
scattered instances of flooding across the region, especially the
western half of the area. Shear and instability parameters will be
sufficient as well for the potential of isolated to scattered severe
storms as well. The main threats would be damaging winds and large
hail, with the greatest risk favoring locations along the Rio Grande.

Through the daytime portion of Wednesday morning, the atmosphere
could become temporarily more stable across the region with a general
decrease in the areal coverage of rain and thunderstorm activity
following the overnight storm complex. However, with the areal
daytime heating, scattered to numerous showers and storms are likely
to develop in the region from the afternoon into the evening.
Additionally, there may be another storm complex that establishes as
well across the San Angelo CWA and/or northern regions that slides
south-southeasterly through the region from Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night. The greatest concern once again will be for robust
rainfall rates that may produce a quick 1 to 2 inches or more of
rainfall. This may lead to additional isolated to scattered instances
of flooding. Isolated strong to severe storms could also result with
strong winds and large hail as the main severe hazards.

The daytime high temperatures through the short term will generally
run from the mid 80s into the 90s while overnight lows run from the
mid to upper 60s into the 70s. The coolest temperatures may be the
result from cold pools following within the wake of the storm
complexes and area outflow boundaries.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Key Messages:

- Chances for heavy rain continue through midweek, with localized
  flash flooding possible.

- Rain chances gradually shift east and decline heading into the
  weekend.

The wet pattern continues Thursday with the trough axis directly
over our area to start the day. The placement and timing of showers
and storms throughout the day will be highly sensitive to how much
preceding activity stabilizes the atmosphere and where outflow
boundaries are located. Because of this, individual deterministic
model projections have and will continue to vary across models and
with each run in the medium to long range. Nonetheless, conditions
continue to support chances for scattered showers and storms
regionwide Thursday, with rich deep layer moisture and ensemble mean
precipitable water values near or above the 90th percentile of the
climatological distribution. There is currently a Slight Risk (level
2 of 4) of excessive rain Thursday for the Hill Country, Coastal
Plains, and I-35 corridor, which could produce isolated flash
flooding. These areas are most centrally positioned underneath strong
850mb moisture advection and integrated vapor transport and have the
highest chances for higher rain totals Thursday. The main corridor
of southerly moist transport starts to move a little more east of our
area Friday, shifting more of the rainfall eastward and gradually
bringing slightly more stable air rearward of the outgoing shortwave.
Rain chances begin to decline heading towards the weekend, but the
remaining moist airmass could continue to support chances for
isolated to scattered rains mainly along residual convective
boundaries.

A subtropical ridge looks to build from the west starting Sunday
into the early part of next week as the trough departs. This should
usher a drier northerly flow aloft, though humid air will remain in
place with southerly flow continuing closer to the surface. Isolated
coastal sea breeze showers could occur over the Coastal Plains, but
generally rain-free conditions are more likely to prevail for other
areas to start next week. Given the flow aloft, the nearby shortwave
disturbance, and occasional rain chances, daytime temperatures will
likely be below to near average during the long-term forecast period.
Overnight temperatures should remain mild given the persistent
humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR conditions through the evening outside of any TSRA activity. A
complex of SHRA/TSRA will move out of Mexico and the Trans Pecos into
the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains this evening,
potentially impacting DRT. Some TSRA activity could produce large
hail and wind gusts >50 KT across this region. This complex will
continue east overnight, although there is some uncertainty on the
strength as it reaches the I-35 corridor 04Z-09Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  88  73  88 /  50  70  60  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  89  73  87 /  50  70  60  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  89  73  89 /  50  70  60  60
Burnet Muni Airport            71  86  70  86 /  50  70  60  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  90  75  96 /  80  40  30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  87  71  85 /  50  70  60  70
Hondo Muni Airport             73  90  72  91 /  70  70  60  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  88  73  88 /  50  70  60  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  88  75  88 /  40  70  40  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  89  74  90 /  60  70  60  60
Stinson Muni Airport           76  91  75  91 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...76

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
724 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

TXZ183-110100-
Val Verde TX-
724 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Val
Verde County through 800 PM CDT
...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Juno, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Juno.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3007 10149 3023 10137 3029 10131 3029 10070
      3028 10070 3014 10098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 256DEG 20KT 3026 10104

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

AE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
730 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     14 N Seminole Canyon St 29.89N 101.27W
06/10/2025  M63 MPH          Val Verde          TX   Mesonet

            Mesonet station TWB98 Gray Ranch.

&&

OB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
732 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 E Langtry             29.80N 101.45W
06/10/2025  M60 MPH          Val Verde          TX   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UR249 6.7 E Langtry (UPR).

&&

OB