Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
556 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

A deep upper level trough covers most of the eastern half of the
country this morning. At the surface, a stationary front was
stretched along our northern border. The low level flow is from the
southeast bringing a warm, moist airmass to the CWA. The upper flow
over TX is west-northwesterly on the backside of the trough. This
pattern will remain in place for the short term period. Within the
upper flow models show a series of shortwave troughs that will move
across the stationary boundary and provide lift for convection. Rain
chances will begin across the north and spread south through the
afternoon and evening. The airmass will have around 3000 j/kg of CAPE
and vertical wind shear of 40-45 kts and strong to severe storms will
be possible. SPC has included our Rio Grande region in the level
2-Slight risk for severe thunderstorms and the rest of the CWA in the
level 1-Marginal. All severe threats are possible in the Slight area
and wind and hail are most likely in the Marginal. The best timing
for strong storms is late this afternoon and evening. In addition to
the severe threat there should be sufficient moisture in the airmass
for locally heavy rainfall. WPC has included the Hill Country,
Southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains in the level 2-Slight
risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.
Convection should decrease overnight. The pattern will not change
significantly Wednesday and will see another chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms. If convection plays out as expected today, it
will leave the airmass a little less favorable for severe storms
tomorrow. SPC only has a level 1-Marginal risk for damaging wind and
hail. The level 2-Slight risk for excessive rainfall will shift to
the east Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Another upper level trough will move out of the southwest and over TX
for the latter part of the week while the low level flow continues to
pump warm, moist air into South-Central Texas. This will mean
continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and
Thursday. Details get a little fuzzy, but there will be some chance
for strong storms and locally heavy rain. Thursday afternoon and
evening are the most likely time. For the end of the week and weekend
an upper ridge will push in from the west which will bring an end to
the wet pattern from west to east. Convection could linger over the
eastern part of the area each day through Sunday. By Monday all of
the area should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

A line of SHRA/TSRA approaching the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country
may move over I-35 in the next few hours. Have introduced TEMPOs for
those sites this morning. Redevelopment is expected this afternoon
with another round of SHRA/TSRA this evening out west and overnight
in the east. Have PROB30s for those time periods. MVFR CIGs will mix
to VFR by midday, then return tonight. Some reductions in CIGs/VSBYs
are possible in SHRA/TSRA. Southeasterly winds prevail, however VRBL
winds with gusts to 45 KTs are possible in/near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  75  88  73 /  40  40  70  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  75  89  73 /  40  40  70  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  74  88  73 /  40  40  70  50
Burnet Muni Airport            87  72  85  70 /  60  40  80  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  74  91  74 /  40  60  60  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  73  87  71 /  60  40  70  50
Hondo Muni Airport             95  73  89  71 /  40  40  70  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  74  88  72 /  30  40  70  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  75  88  75 /  40  20  70  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  75  89  74 /  40  40  70  60
Stinson Muni Airport           96  77  92  74 /  30  40  70  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04