Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
623 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Key Message:

- Chance for storms mainly Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau
and portions of the I-35 corridor late afternoon into late this
evening.

Southeasterly winds are maintaining low-level moisture across all of
south central Texas with dewpoints mainly in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Some lower dewpoints are observed across portions of the
southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country where moisture a shallow
and has begun to mix out. High temperatures are still on track to
reach the mid 90s to near 103 degrees.

For this afternoon and early evening, we have added/increased rain
chances across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill
Country and southward into the I-35 corridor near San Antonio and
coastal plains. SPC mesoanalysis shows a narrow axis of higher
instability across these areas and several of the hi-res models show
isolated to scattered convection developing late this afternoon into
early this evening. The other area of concern will be across
portions of the Hill Country late this evening into early Friday
morning. Convection is now beginning to develop across northwest
Texas is expected to expand in coverage and propagate southwestward
through the evening hours. A fair amount of the hi-res models show a
line or cluster of storms approaching portions of the Hill Country,
including Llano and Burnet counties around Midnight. While this
activity will likely be weakening with time, some of the showers and
storms may hold on long enough to reach the I-35 corridor mainly
near and north of Austin early Friday morning. Given the time of
year, we can't rule out a strong to severe storm for the above
areas, with hail and high winds the main concerns.

On Friday, we will keep the forecast dry as mid and upper level
ridging begins to build in from the south. Temperatures on Friday
will be above normal, with highs in the lower 90s to lower 100s and
overnight lows mainly in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

An upper level ridge will prevent any convection Saturday through
Sunday morning. The low level flow will continue to be from the
southeast. This will keep temperatures above normal with highs from
the middle 90s to near 105 and lows in the 70s. Sunday afternoon the
pattern will change. An upper level low will move to northern Plains
bringing westerly to southwesterly flow over Texas. There will be a
series of shortwave troughs that will move through this pattern
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to our CWA beginning
Sunday afternoon. The unsettled pattern will remain through the end
of the period and there will be chances for convection each day
Monday through Thursday. Chances will be better each afternoon and
evening. At this time it doesn't look like there will be any strong
storms or heavy rain, but given the time of year that could change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are occurring over our area. Have maintained PROB30s
for the I-35 sites for this evening. Otherwise, VFR flying conditions
this evening turn MVFR overnight, then mix to VFR midday on Friday.
S to SE winds 5 to 15 KTs prevail, however become VRBL with gusts to
40 KTs near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  97  75  98 /  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  97  74  98 /  20   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  97  74  98 /  20   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  95  73  96 /  30   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 101  77 102 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  96  74  98 /  20   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             71  98  72  99 /  30   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  97  74  98 /  20   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  95  74  96 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  97  75  98 /  30   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  99  76  99 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...04

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
929 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

TXZ189-206-230315-
Comal TX-Kendall TX-
929 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Kendall and west
central Comal Counties through 1015 PM CDT...

At 929 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sisterdale, or 11 miles east of Comfort, moving south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, Bulverde, Walnut Grove, Guadalupe River
State Park, Kendalia, Old Tunnel State Park, Bankersmith, Sisterdale,
Kreutzberg, Welfare, Nelson City, Waring, Bergheim, Cascade Caverns,
Anhalt, Specht Store, Crown, and Honey Creek State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3011 9857 3005 9851 2974 9844 2975 9853
      2976 9855 2975 9857 2980 9892 2986 9892
      3014 9882
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 004DEG 25KT 3002 9871

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CP