River Flood Warning 23, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
655 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat of Flash Flooding from slow moving and repeat heavy
  rains continues through this evening. The Flood Watch for the
  Hill Country and I-35 Corridor remains in effect until 10 PM
  CDT.

- Rain chances continue on Monday and Tuesday.

- Eventually trending seasonably drier and warmer this coming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
With ongoing showers and thunderstorms we have extended the
Flood Watch until 10 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A mid level MCV and unusually moist airmass, with PWs of 1.7 to
2.4 inches, remain in place over our area. We're seeing showers
and thunderstorms develop across the CWA and expect this to
continue until this evening. With the high PW and slow cell
motion, locally heavy rain will be possible. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for the Hill Country and I-35 Corridor.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches possible. This rain will aggravate
ongoing flooding and likely create new flooding as soils are
saturated making runoff more rapid. The heaviest rain is
expected over the Hill Country to along the I-35 corridor. The
MCV will weaken some by Monday with only a slight decrease in
moisture/PWs. Showers and thunderstorms may be less focused and
have only slight chances on Monday. The clouds and rain areas
will keep daytime temperatures below to well below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The mid level feature will be replaced by an inverted trough
moving onto the Texas coast Tuesday keeping moisture levels
elevated. The blended guidance has caught on to the trends of
the last several model runs and indicates low chances of showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and again Wednesday
afternoon. This will spread from the Coastal Plains to the Hill
Country. The blended model solution shows the subtropical ridge
building over the region over the latter part of the week
bringing dry and warmer weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Continued with PROB30s to account for uncertainty with extent of -TSRA
timing and continued coverage over I-35 sites. Any storm that forms
would bring extreme rainfall rates and a reduction in visibilities.
Winds should remain southeasterly at about 10 kts through the evening
before falling to less than 5 kts overnight. Have kept vicinity
showers as well into the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings return by
9-10Z Monday morning and stick around through late morning Monday.
VFR conditions look to return in the afternoon. For KDRT expect VCSH
until 01Z. Afterwhich VFR conditions with no precip look to continue
with MVFR conditions possible after 14Z but not confident enough to
mention in this TAF forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  92  74  93 /  30  20   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  91  74  93 /  30  20   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  92  73  93 /  30  20   0  20
Burnet Muni Airport            73  89  72  90 /  20  20   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  94  76  95 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  90  74  91 /  20  20   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74  90  73  91 /  20  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  92  73  93 /  30  20   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  91  74  92 /  10  30   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  91  75  92 /  30  10   0  20
Stinson Muni Airport           76  93  74  94 /  30  10   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-
Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Gillespie-Guadalupe-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-
Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson.

&&

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...05
Aviation...CJM