Flash Flood Warning 97, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

704 
WGUS74 KEWX 211748
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1248 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

TXC463-212000-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0097.000000T0000Z-250821T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Uvalde TX-
1248 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN UVALDE COUNTY...

At 1248 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 
and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 
1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Utopia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 9955 2963 9951 2963 9949 2963 9942
      2963 9941 2950 9941 2949 9941 2944 9941
      2949 9962

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

MM

281 
WGUS74 KEWX 211956
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
256 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

TXC463-212006-
/O.EXP.KEWX.FF.W.0097.000000T0000Z-250821T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Uvalde TX-
256 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
NORTHEASTERN UVALDE COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 9955 2963 9951 2963 9949 2963 9942
      2963 9941 2950 9941 2949 9941 2944 9941
      2949 9962

$$

MM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
929 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.UPDATE...
The shear axis mentioned below in the short term discussion is
moving across the southern Edwards Plateau and the northern
portion of the Rio Grande. A moist mid to upper level column
with precipitable water values over 2 inches are reacting in a
form of moderate to heavy rain over parts of the southern
Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande. MRMS rainfall amounts range from
1 to 3 inches the past three hours with additional 1 to 2
inches possible. Several Flood Advisories have been issued this
morning due to the possibility of localized flooding. Also,
moderate to heavy rain and slow moving storms are affecting the
northwest and central portions of Kerr County. With these
amounts of rainfall amounts affecting these areas, the Guadalupe
River at Hunt is forecast to reach minor stage this afternoon
(around 3 PM CDT) and peak around 7 PM CDT.

Latest hires model data bring the bulk of the heavy rain across
the Rio Grande and along and east and south of Interstate 35
and 37 late this morning into the afternoon. Will keep closely
monitoring radar trends and updating the short term forecast as
needed.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week

- Locally heavy rains that may cause minor flooding, as well as
  gusty winds are possible through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region
with a mid level shear axis nearly overhead or just southeast of our
area. Satellite imagery shows a slug of increased moisture with PWs
around 2+ inches associated with a mid level impulse moving south
into our area. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop over the
Hill Country and Edwards Plateau early this morning, then scattered
showers and thunderstorms over most areas are expected mainly during
the daytime hours as the impulse, shear axis, residual surface
boundaries, and moist airmass remain over our area. Locally heavy
rainfall that may cause minor flooding is possible due to high PWs
(150% of August averages) making for efficient rainfall processes
and a potential for slow moving or training rain cells. Wind gusts
to 50 mph are possible due to a moderately unstable airmass. Expect
mainly isolated coverage at night with loss of heating. Daytime
temperatures will be below mid August averages due to the clouds and
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
The Ridge builds over our area later this weekend into early next
week with the impulse, shear axis, and moist airmass shifting south
of our area. Showers and thunderstorms become isolated during the
afternoon to correspond with peak heating. A cold front may drop
south into our area during the middle of next week leading to
an increase in chances of showers and thunderstorms. Due to more
sunshine, daytime temperatures warm to near late August averages
by early next week, then as clouds and rain increase drop to
below average middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (14Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF period with the
exception of any reductions in convective activity. Numerous
SHRAs and scattered TSRAs ongoing early this morning near and
north of a DRT-ECU line, and moving south. Isolated SHRA
activity ongoing northeast of AUS, also moving south. Scattered
TSRA development is expected in the afternoon near and southeast
of a DRT-SAT-AUS line. Due to lower confidence in exact
placement of storms, and how morning activity evolves, PROB30
TSRA confidence is indicated in the TAFs in the afternoon. Some
wind gusts in excess of 30KT are possible in and near TSRA
activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  93  74  96 /  30  40  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  93  73  95 /  30  40  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  94  72  95 /  30  60  30  30
Burnet Muni Airport            72  91  71  93 /  20  40  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  76  97 /  20  40  20  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  93  73  95 /  30  40  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             72  93  72  94 /  30  60  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  93  71  95 /  30  60  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  91  73  93 /  40  60  20  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  93  75  94 /  30  60  30  30
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  76  95 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...17
Aviation...27