Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
948 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

We have extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was previously
set to expire at 10am. This Severe Thunderstorm watch is now extended
until noon today for Bandera, Edwards, Kerr, Medina, and Real
counties.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect for the northern Hill
Country and I-35 corridor and parts of the Coastal Plains including
the cities of Llano, Burnet, Austin, Bastrop, Fredericksburg,
Georgetown, New Braunfels, San Marcos and Seguin until 4pm this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Key message:

- Rounds of strong to severe storms and heavy rains expected

An upper level low moves from New Mexico this morning out over the
central plains tonight and Wednesday. A strong shortwave moves over
our area today as a Pacific front moves across our area to around
the I-35 corridor. Showers and thunderstorms from western Texas and
Serranias del Burro are forming into clusters with high chances they
will move across our area early this morning. They should wane
around midday, then redevelop mainly east of I-35 with heating this
afternoon into early evening as the shortwave passes overhead and
the front moves east of the I-35 corridor. Strong instability, deep
layer shear and helicity, as well as steep mid level lapse rates are
ongoing and will continue through the day. As a result, strong to
severe storms are expected with both rounds of convection. Large to
very large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats with
isolated tornadoes possible. SPC has levels 1 to 3 of 5 risks for
severe storms. There is also a threat for heavy rains and flooding.
PWs are well above seasonal averages and there is a potential of
rains moving or stalling over the same areas for a period of time.
WPC has levels 1 to 2 of 4 risks for excessive rainfall for today.
The front stalls as the strong shortwave moves away front the area
this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will again wane later this
evening.

A weaker upper level shortwave moves over area late tonight and
Wednesday to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms over most
of our area. The convective parameters are slightly less impressive
than those ongoing keeping a possibility of strong to severe storms.
Large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Locally heavy rains
are also possible where the potential for rains to move over the
same areas for a period of time. SPC has level 1 of 5 risk for
severe storms and WPC has level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall
for Wednesday.

Nearly seasonal temperatures are expected today through Wednesday.
Minimum humidities across the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau
fall into the teens and 20s each afternoon. However, fire weather
issues are not expected due to wetting rains prior to the frontal
passage and light winds of less than 10 mph after its passage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Key Messages:

- Locally heavy rain possible Thursday over the Coastal Plains.

- Low to medium chance (30 to 50%) for showers and thunderstorms
late Thursday into Friday along the Rio Grande.

A quasi stationary frontal boundary will remain in place along the
Texas coast Wednesday night, keeping moist air draped along the
Coastal Plains and over South Texas before the front slowly pushes
offshore Thursday. While wind directions aloft will tend to support a
shallower moist layer with more stable air, enough moisture may be
available to support locally heavy rainfall over the Coastal Plains
Wednesday night into Thursday. The latest guidance has tended to
place the frontal boundary and heaviest corridor of frontal rains
just beyond our county warning area, but minor shifts westward could
implicate our southeasternmost counties, including Lavaca and DeWitt.

While models have had some difficulty handling the current upper
level pattern over CONUS, by Thursday a western lobe of PV should
reach the Central US. This favors a shortwave approaching our area
sometime Thursday, and models generally show a weak shortwave
tracking across South Central Texas late Thursday into Friday. While
this disturbance will encounter an airmass slightly more stable than
what we've seen heading into the week, interaction with mountainous
terrain over Mexico may support the development of isolated showers
and thunderstorms Thursday evening into Friday morning. Odds are
highest over the Rio Grande Plains, with rain chances are about 30
to 50 percent for that timeframe.

Once Thursday passes, the active subtropical jet stream will push
south of our area, resulting in a drying northwesterly flow in the
mid-level and zonal flow aloft. Additionally, current ensemble
solutions show the aforementioned lobe of vorticity stalling out
over the Gulf states through the weekend into next week. This will
favor a dry continental airmass and temperatures around to a few
degrees below climatological norms (highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s with lows in the 50s to low 60s for most). Given the slow moving
upper air pattern, gradual airmass modification should allow for a
warmup entering next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

SHRA/TSRA are developing over South Central Texas and the Hill
Country. These will continue to track to the east and northeast this
morning into afternoon. Have maintained SHRA at the I-35 sites with
TEMPOs TSRA 12Z-16Z. Some TSRA could linger at KAUS through early
afternoon. LIFR/IFR CIGs with brief reductions in VSBYs at the I-35
sites this morning will lift to VFR late morning to early afternoon.
MVFR CIGs at KDRT lift to VFR by 14Z. Winds at KDRT, gusty
southeasterly shift to light northwesterly around 14Z. Winds at the
I-35 sites, easterly around 10 KTs shift to southerly this morning,
then westerly in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  65  86  67 /  80  10  30  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  64  86  65 /  80  10  30  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  65  87  66 /  70  10  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            84  61  85  64 /  90   0  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           92  64  94  69 /  10  10  10  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        84  62  84  64 /  90   0  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             90  62  89  66 /  50  10  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  65  86  66 /  80  10  30  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   83  68  85  67 /  80  20  40  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  67  87  68 /  60  10  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           91  68  88  69 /  50  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...CJM
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...CJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
545 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

TXZ186>188-061130-
Gillespie TX-Kerr TX-Bandera TX-
545 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Bandera, central Kerr and southwestern Gillespie Counties through 630
AM CDT...

At 545 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Medina, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Kerrville, Fredericksburg, Ingram, Hunt, Tivydale,
Kerrville-Schreiner Park, Waltonia, and Harper.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3024 9881 2974 9931 2985 9950 3028 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 1045Z 213DEG 31KT 2987 9934

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
820 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

TXZ184-061400-
Edwards TX-
820 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Edwards
County through 900 AM CDT...

At 820 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Rocksprings, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rocksprings and Devil's Sinkhole State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3010 9987 3007 9992 3008 9997 3005 9997
      2983 10039 2998 10051 3029 10009 3029 10002
TIME...MOT...LOC 1320Z 234DEG 28KT 2996 10039

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Runyen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
843 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

TXZ202-061430-
Kinney TX-
843 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Kinney
County through 930 AM CDT...

At 843 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Standart, or 12 miles northwest of Brackettville, moving northeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Standart, Alamo Village, and Kickapoo Cavern State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2945 10070 2963 10040 2962 10012 2960 10011
      2948 10011 2929 10060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1343Z 240DEG 28KT 2941 10058

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Runyen

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