Wind Advisory 19, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1147 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Quick warming to well above normal, with 90s in the lowlands
    Monday through Wednesday.

 -  Back to breezy today, then windy Tuesday and Wednesday.
    Widespread areas of blowing dust expected Tuesday and
    Wednesday with difficult travel possible.

 -  Critical fire weather conditions return today across western
    zones, increasing in coverage and intensity Tuesday and
    Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

Ridge of high pressure will continue moseying slowly eastward today,
allowing for another few degree uptick in high temperatures.
Meanwhile, an unseasonably potent low will crash into the PacNW, the
eastward extent of which working to compress the ridge's western
periphery. This will bring breezy to locally windy conditions to
western zones in the afternoon and the potential for patchy
blowing dust in and around the Lordsburg Playa. The ridge will
break down overnight ahead of the trough, allowing the H5 pressure
gradient to tighten considerably, leading to strengthening winds
across the high terrain. Winds will strengthen areawide Tuesday
afternoon as the flow aloft increases, with Wind Advisory speeds
being seen across most zones. A new development on the 00Z GFS is
the presence of a 50 kt bullseye at 700 mb across the southwest
and south central mts. This could lead to strong gusts being mixed
down at the sfc but given the lack of run-to-run consistency, did
decide to hold off on hoisting any highlights for the
aforementioned zones. Should the feature persist, high wind
highlights may be needed in future updates.

The system digs into the Great Basin Tuesday night, letting the
tight H5 pressure gradient persist over the Borderland into
Wednesday. Another day of windy to very windy conditions will be on
tap as the system swings eastward towards the Rockies. A cool
down will take hold with the passing of the trough, with most
locales seeing a 4F to 8F reduction from Tuesday's readings. The
magnitude and direction of the winds will cause areas of blowing
dust for the Borderland both Tuesday and Wednesday, especially
across the I-10 and Hwy 9 corridor. Winds will die down Wednesday
evening, setting the stage for a calm and cool night.

As the system ejects towards the Great Lakes, a secondary piece of
energy will find its way into the Desert Southwest. Baggy and
weak, this shortwave will have little impact to sensible weather
but will allow for temperatures to not rebound as quickly.
Relatively benign weather will prevail through the week's end but
another amplified system will begin to slide into the PacNW on
Saturday night. This will put another round of wind and dust on
the menu to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the period with
possible exception at KDMN with slim potential for restrictive
VSBY in BLDU late this afternoon. SW and Westerly winds will be on
the rise today...starting breezy at 10kt G18-20kt and then
increasing west of the Rio Grande to 15-18kt G20-28kt. Potential
for some BLDU west, with 1-3SM in locations, but not widespread
sig vsby reductions today. Overnight we do expect some increasing
winds over east slope location, so KELP will be affected by LLWS
and mountain wave activity. Expect 20kt G 30kt plus, so will be
issuing a AWW for KELP for tonight, which will run through
Tuesday. Winds will increase at all terminals aft 16z tomorrow,
25kt G 35kts, with widespread areas of BLDU and potential for
significant VSBY restrictions in BLDU, with MVFR and IRF possible
at KDMN, KLRU, and KELP aft 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

...EXTENDED DURATION OF CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Ridge of high pressure overhead will begin breaking down today, with
wind speeds out west picking up this afternoon. This in the presence
of low humidity will lead to near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions across the southwest deserts. Critical fire weather
conditions will expand in coverage and intensity Tuesday as a potent
trough digs into the Great Basin. Wind speeds will increase early on
Tuesday, with gusts around 50 mph commonplace nearly areawide.
Minimum relative humidity with settle in the single to low double
digits with the exception of the high terrain, which will hover
just above critical thresholds. This combination, along with dry
fuels, will create areas of extreme fire weather conditions, which
will persist into Wednesday as the system moves toward the
Rockies. Given the areal coverage of gusty winds and low humidity,
did decide to add Hudspeth County to the Fire Weather Watch for
Tuesday.

As the trough swings through on Wednesday, even drier air will
filter into the Borderland, creating single digit RH nearly
areawide, save for the far east zones and the high terrain. Cooler
temperatures will take hold Wednesday afternoon compared to
Tuesday's readings. Further drying will occur as the system ejects
eastward on Thursday, with low single digit humidity expected
across a bulk of southern New Mexico. Winds will relax
significantly, helping to limit critical fire weather conditions
through Saturday but poor overnight recovery and extremely low
minRH will keep conditions elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  94  71  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            89  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               91  61  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               91  62  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               66  48  66  47 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    91  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              83  53  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   93  59  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                91  57  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                93  64  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             96  65  98  67 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               86  64  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   94  67  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             91  65  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           91  69  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            91  61  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    93  63  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 93  65  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                90  64  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  78  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                77  52  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 76  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  82  49  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                88  58  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                91  57  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             82  49  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   86  52  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    89  51  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               85  51  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  86  57  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   92  59  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  91  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           90  60  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               85  58  83  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County-
     Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
     Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
      South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Southwest
     Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ.

&&

FORECASTER...14-Bird