Wind Advisory 18, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1215 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Southwest winds will become increasingly breezy on Saturday.

 - Strong winds and blowing dust will return to the region on
   Sunday, accompanied by Critical Fire Weather conditions.

 - Seasonal weather with afternoon breezes Monday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A slow moving UL low is off the CA coast, and it will be the
main driver of our weather through the weekend. For Saturday, flow
will begin to increase throughout the column as the main jet is
steered eastward with its exit region located toward NM. A broad
surface pressure trough will form over the Rio Grande Valley,
leading to some afternoon breeziness. Given the wind trajectory,
some dust may kick up out of Mexico and move into the CWA, but
impacts look minimal.

The UL low will continue eastward into NV and UT into Sunday,
aligning the main H500 jet across NM by Sunday afternoon. A
surface low pressure around 995 mb will form over Eastern CO with
its trough axis southward across the High Plains of NM. Forecast
winds look a little stronger than yesterday's forecast with H500
around 75 knots and H700 and H850 flow at 40-45 knots. Forecast
soundings show mixing well above 700 mb to around 550-600 mb. This
will lead to widespread wind advisory and high wind warning
caliber winds for nearly the entire CWA. With the trough axis
aligned toward the Hudspeth County, winds will be lighter out that
way. Nevertheless, the High Wind Watch I inherited looks good,
the exception being NBM data shows a mean max gust of 51 knots for
El Paso. I went ahead and expanded the watch to include that
zone. The forecast is a bit in flux when it comes to wind speeds,
so I will hold of on upgrading the watch. Southwesterly winds will
bring in dust out of Mexico, which will combine with local dust
sources. Visibility issues related to blowing dust are a good bet,
and dust advisories will almost certainly be hoisted before
Sunday. The strong winds will also combine with very dry
conditions, so the Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning.

The UL low will eject northeastward overnight Sunday into Monday,
taking the main jet max with it. Lingering energy behind the low
will carve out a secondary trough across the Desert SW. Main jet
energy will remain over Southern NM and Far West Texas but with
lower speeds and a weaker surface cyclone. It will be breezy again
on Monday, but impacts are expected to be much less than Sunday.
Temperatures will be closer to average too behind a Pacific front.

The secondary low will swing across Southern AZ into Southern NM
Tuesday into Wednesday. This will shift the jet south keeping the
strongest winds over Chihuahua. The path of the low would normally
bring favorable dynamics to our CWA, but the system will be quite
moisture starved, yielding some fair weather cumulus at most.
Tuesday will instead bring seasonal temperatures along with some
afternoon breezes. We are on the back-side of the low by
Wednesday, but a somewhat tight surface pressure gradient will
keep us breezy in the afternoon with no significant impacts
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Typical aftn
breeziness aft 25/18Z with sly wind gusts generally around 20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...

A very dry air mass will be in place for the entire period with
afternoon min RH values well into the single digits. Mountains
will also see min RH values in the single-digits and lower teens.
For Saturday, this will lead to elevated fire weather conditions
as 20-foot winds top out around 15 MPH to 20 MPH. Some of the
higher elevations, especially in the Bootheel, will see an hour or
two of critical fire weather conditions, but no Red Flag Warning
is in effect. Venting on Saturday will be excellent.

Winds increase on Sunday, especially along and west of the Rio
Grande and across higher elevations. Afternoon winds will peak 25
to 35 MPH with gusts as high as 60 MPH. The Fire Weather Watch was
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning given the high confidence. Winds
will not be as strong across Texas, but latest data do show an
uptick in winds. Hudspeth County was added to the Red Flag Warning,
but winds will be marginal across the county. Min RH values will
be well into the single-digits. RFTI values will range 5 to 8 with
the highest threat ranging across the Black Range and Rio Grande
Valley of Sierra County southward into the Mimbres River Valley
and into the Bootheel.

Dry air will remain in place, but winds will decrease for the week
ahead. At this time, no widespread critical fire weather
conditions are anticipated for Monday onward as afternoon winds
top out around 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  60  92  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  89  54  85 /  10  10  10   0
Las Cruces               50  86  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               55  87  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  64  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    52  83  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              44  75  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   49  87  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                45  83  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       60  90  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                51  93  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             56  96  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               56  84  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   55  94  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             54  89  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  88  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            50  86  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    50  88  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 53  89  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                54  87  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  47  76  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                46  74  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 43  73  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  40  74  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                49  81  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                48  85  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             41  74  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   42  78  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    41  80  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               43  73  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  46  79  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   47  83  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  46  83  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           47  83  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               47  77  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
     NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range
     Foothills-Northern Dona Ana County-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana
     County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West
     Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

FORECASTER...15-Brice