Wind Advisory 15, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1129 AM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1126 AM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025

 - Strong southwest winds Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to
   widespread blowing dust and critical wildfire danger.
   Strongest gusts will occur Tuesday afternoon.

 - Much cooler late this week with precipitation chances back in
   the forecast. Confidence is increasing for a late-season snow
   event over the Sacramento Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Quite an active weather pattern ahead with several different
scenarios. The first half of the work week will by very Spring-
like with warm temperatures and strong winds. That pattern will
be followed by a cooler and wetter forecast later this week.

I would recommend enjoying the weather today, before a much more
active pattern begins. Zonal flow pattern aloft today, allowing
winds to settle down a bit and keeping temperatures quite warm.
Lowland highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees with west winds 10
to 15 mph. Low-end breezy, but very light given what's ahead.

Polar jet streak shifts directly over the region on Tuesday ahead
of a developing upper low pressure system. 980mb lee surface low
development over the Central Plains with a surface trough
extending southwest all the way into Arizona and New Mexico will
allow southwest flow to increase dramatically once mixing begins.
Winds will already will quite strong over the elevated terrain
Tuesday morning, then spreading area wide by early Tuesday
afternoon. GFS model soundings show winds in the 45-55 knot range
reaching the surface with BL mixing to 600mb midday. High Wind
Watch is in effect for most of the high terrain and mountain east
slopes Tuesday, and Wind Advisories will be forthcoming for most
other zones.

Good confidence in blowing dust on Tuesday along with the strong
winds. 240-260 wind directions suggest dust sources in northern
Chihuahua will affect El Paso and surrounding communities.
Greatest risk for low visibility and dust storms will be along
the I-10 corridor in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, El
Paso in particular. Winds will remain quite gusty overnight into
Wednesday, especially along east slopes.

Windy conditions resume on Wednesday, though a tick lighter than
Tuesday as the primary jet streak aloft progresses eastward. The
lee surface low looks weaker but closer in proximity (NE New
Mexico) to our forecast area in latest runs. While it looks less
likely that we'll need High Wind Warnings Wednesday, but
Advisories will be considered especially along the I-10 and US-54
corridors. More blowing dust is likely as well.

Pacific cold front, currently timed for Wednesday afternoon/night
will begin a cooling trend that will continue through the rest of
the week. Thursday will be cooler with lowland highs in the lower
60s. Winds will also be lighter as a closed low begins to form
over the lower Colorado River valley.

Cooler and wetter weather pattern begins next Thursday into the
weekend as unseasonably deep trough hangs over the U.S. Southwest
and a closed low forms. Moisture fetch from Baja will increase
clod coverage on Thursday, allowing for a top-down moistening and
eventually scattered precipitation chances Friday through Sunday.
Right now, better chances for lowland rain are biased east of the
Rio Grande with solid QPF for much of central and eastern New
Mexico. Model clustering suggest uncertainty in the eventual
evolution of this closed low and any potential lingering energy
behind the primary wave.

Coinciding with these precipitation chances, global models
(especially the GFS) shows a backdoor cold front invading the
region from the northeast Friday/Saturday. If strong and cold
enough, this could result in heavy snows over the Sacramento
Mountains and elevations above 7000 feet. NBM probabilities still
show a wide range of possibilities for Cloudcroft, ranging from 2
to 10 inches between the 25th and 75th percentiles. This is the
most uncertain aspect of this forecast package, so will need to
wait for model guidance to have a better consensus before
sounding the winter alarm up there.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period with
variable thin high clouds. Winds will be breezy this afternoon
topping out around 15 knots with a few gusts to 25 knots. Winds
will decrease some after dark before a very windy day on
Tuesday. Direction will primarily be from the WSW (240-270).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Lighter winds today with fire danger Near-Critical due to
continued dryness. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph will allow for
Very Good vent rates. Min RH 10-20% with ERC values near the 90th
percentile across GNF and LNF.

Strong southwest winds return Tuesday and Wednesday with Red Flag
Warnings in effect for all zones on Tuesday. Slight increase in
midday RH (10-25%), but RFTI will still reach Critical for most
areas due to wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range Tuesday afternoon.
Further moisture increases on Wednesday may prevent the need for
another Red Flag despite continued strong winds.

Lower fire danger late this week as cooler and wetter conditions
begin. Widespread precipitation chances Friday/Saturday with
mountains snows possible. This should help ERCs quite a bit and
lower fire danger for the first half of April in local forests.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  81  53  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            76  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               77  45  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               77  50  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               56  38  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    79  48  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              69  42  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   79  46  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                76  41  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       79  54  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                80  46  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             83  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               72  48  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   81  49  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             77  48  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           79  54  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            77  47  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    81  49  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 81  49  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                76  47  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  70  46  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                66  43  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 64  38  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  71  37  63  24 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                77  45  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                79  44  73  35 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             70  38  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   72  40  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    76  37  70  30 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               71  41  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  73  44  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   79  43  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  79  43  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           79  46  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               74  44  70  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Eastern/Central El Paso County.

NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
     Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
     NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black
     Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes.

&&

FORECASTER...34-Brown