Wind Advisory 10, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1031 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1027 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025

 - Quiet and fair weather conditions resume on Wednesday with
   temperatures increasing back up the seasonal average.

 - The next upper level system will bring strong winds on Thursday
   and Friday, with blowing dust expected on Thursday. Critical
   fire weather conditions will accompany the strong winds.

 - Scattered rain and high elevation snow showers as the storm
   system passes over the region on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025

Overall, no major changes from previous forecast packages. An active
Spring-time weather pattern will be the theme through the week and
into early next week. The first half of March looks to be fairly
active across the Desert SW with persistent west CONUS troughing and
east CONUS ridging. Ensemble guidance continues to show a
progressive flow pattern with a train of upper level systems
traversing across western CONUS. For the local area, this means
continued periods of windy conditions with fluctuations in daily
high temperatures.

...TODAY...

The next upper level system will begin impacting the PacNW/Coastal
CA region. In response to this deepening east Pacific trough,
shortwave ridging with increasing SW flow will develop across the
Desert SW. As a result, quiet and fair weather conditions will
prevail on Wednesday. Winds will be light to low-end breezy with
above average temperatures and increasing high level clouds
during the afternoon/evening.

...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

A highly amplified and progressive upper level flow regime will
resume at the end of the work week. The associated and
aforementioned upper level trough will come on shore over
northern/central CA coast and continue diving southeast across CA.
As a result cyclonic and southwest flow will increase across NM
and far west TX. In response, sub-1000mb surface cyclogenesis will
develop over the Front Range of CO with associated surface trough
across NM on Thursday. This in combination with an overlaying
50-70 knot 500mb jet and sufficient 7- 10 kft mixing, windy
conditions and blowing dust can be expected on Thursday. A High
Wind Watch will be in effect for the Sacramento East Slopes. On
Friday, a secondary lobe of energy embedded within the main trough
aloft will be reinforced a fairly strong windward side jet
streak. This complex evolution of jet dynamics will form its own
cutoff upper low over SOCAL/northern Baja. This cutoff low will
trek across AZ and NM during the Friday and Saturday timeframe. As
this system encroaches far western NM, it's fairly sufficient
amount of associated moisture will promote scattered light rain
and high elevation snow showers Friday and Saturday. As of now,
precipitation amounts look light with greatest confidence in
amounts >0.01" for areas along and west of the Continental Divide.

...SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

The aforementioned upper level system will quickly depart Saturday
afternoon and evening with fair weather conditions and cooler
temperatures in it's wake. Temperatures will warm back up to
slightly above average on Sunday with light winds expected. High
pressure aloft will continue to build in across the region early
next week with temperatures warming back above the seasonal
average. By Tuesday, the next upper level system will move across
the Intermountain West bringing with it breezy to windy conditions
during the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025

VFR conditions with just some passing high clouds can be expected
today, along with light winds, generally southerly. A few gusts
around 20-25 knots will be possible around TCS during the mid-
afternoon.

An approaching upper level system and developing low pressure east
of the Rocky Mountains will bring another round of gusty southwest
winds to the area Thursday, with plenty of blowing dust in the
lowland deserts. The worst conditions will occur after 18Z
Thursday, but stronger gusts and the beginnings of reduced
visibility have been introduced into the TAFs by 16-17Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025

Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will persist through
today and Thursday, before a stint of relief Friday and Saturday.
Progressive upper flow regime with continued dry and windy
conditions will be the theme. This coupled with current drought
conditions and the anomalous to near record high ERC values, will
lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions.

For today, shortwave ridging and high pressure aloft will induce
weak surface low pressure development the Four Corners vicinity,
promoting southerly winds at the surface. Winds will be generally
light at 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. This coupled with Min RH
values below 20 percent areawide will lead to Elevated fire weather
conditions. Sufficient afternoon mixing up to 4-6 thousand feet,
along with modest transport winds will lead to Fair to Good smoke
ventilation rates this afternoon.

For Thursday, A RED FLAG WARNING is in effect Thursday afternoon and
evening for NMZ112 and NMZ113 in New Mexico and TXZ055 and TX056 in
Texas as Critical fire weather conditions return to the forecast. A
strong upper level system will approach the region, deep southwest
flow will lead strong winds with gusts up to 40-60 mph. Min RH
values will vary from west to east, and by elevation. Desert
lowlands east of the Divide will range between 10-15 percent with
the Gila and lowland deserts west of the Divide ranging between
15- 25 percent. NMZ113 will see Min RH values between 15-25
percent also. That said, with strong winds expected, Critical fire
weather conditions will exist especially for areas east of the
Divide (including NMZ113).

Moisture makes a brief return to the region on Friday and Saturday.
On Friday, a secondary lobe of energy embedded within the main
trough aloft will be reinforced a fairly strong windward side jet
streak. This complex evolution of jet dynamics will form its own
cutoff upper low over SOCAL/northern Baja. This cutoff low will trek
across AZ and NM during the Friday and Saturday timeframe. As this
system encroaches far western NM, it's fairly sufficient amount of
associated moisture will promote scattered light rain and high
elevation snow showers Friday and Saturday. As of now, precipitation
amounts look light with greatest confidence in QPF amounts >0.01"
for areas along and west of the Continental Divide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  50  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            68  43  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               69  43  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               68  46  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               49  36  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    69  44  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              63  42  59  31 /   0   0  20  10
Deming                   71  43  70  37 /   0   0  10   0
Lordsburg                70  42  67  32 /   0   0  20  10
West El Paso Metro       71  53  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                71  41  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             75  44  81  41 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               65  47  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   74  47  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             69  48  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           70  51  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            69  41  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    71  41  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 71  46  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                68  44  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  64  41  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                59  38  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 58  34  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  63  34  59  25 /   0   0  10  10
Hillsboro                68  43  66  34 /   0   0  10   0
Spaceport                68  39  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             65  40  57  28 /   0   0  30  10
Hurley                   66  38  63  30 /   0   0  10  10
Cliff                    71  36  65  26 /   0   0  30  10
Mule Creek               66  41  58  27 /   0   0  40  20
Faywood                  64  43  63  33 /   0   0  10  10
Animas                   74  46  70  35 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                  70  43  69  35 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           73  46  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
Cloverdale               69  47  62  37 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Thursday for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Thursday for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
     Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet.

&&

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman