Red Flag Warning 9, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1145 AM MDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1144 AM MDT Sun Mar 16 2025

 - Upper ridge over the area will lead to a couple of nice (quiet)
   days--Sunday and Monday.

 - New Pacific storm moves in Tuesday for strong winds and blowing
   dust, and more critical fire weather conditions.

 - Quiet again Wednesday into next weekend with just some breezy
   afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM MDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Today brings a long-awaited break in highs winds and blowing dust.
Today we will come under the gradient relaxing feature of high
pressure, and thus we will see significant lowering of wind
speeds. Today also starts a sharp two-day warming and drying
trend. For Sunday and Monday, temperatures will climb at least 10
degrees warmer today, and add another 10-15 degrees Monday. Highs
across the lowlands be near 80 by Monday. Winds will be quite
light, and only marginally breezy after mid-afternoon on Monday.

Tuesday brings another day of brutal winds and widespread dense
blowing dust to the region as our next Pacific trough passes. This
storm has a flat trajectory to our north; thus it's moisture will
stay well to our north. This means a very dry storm passage, that
will induce another round of strong winds and likely significant
blowing dust. The winds will favor W vs. SW, which means most of
the dust sources over N Chihuahua will stay south of our region,
but we have seen plenty of new dust source regions across our SW
Deserts, so maybe not a worst-case scenario, but still likely a
significant dust event of widespread very dense blowing dust.
Sustained winds in the 35-45 mph mph range, with gust in the 55-65
mph range look to be very possible, thus we are issuing a High
Wind Watch for Tuesday with this package.

We get another break from winds and dust, and any significant
weather, for Wednesday, as another upper ridge of high pressure
passes over, with lighter gradients and winds. It should be cooler
behind Tuesday's trough/frontal passage, with NW flow behind the
departing system.

Thursday and Friday both look to bring us some breezy, to
potentially marginally windy afternoons, as a weak upper trough
passes well to our north. However, this trough is weak, well
north, quick, and poorly timed to produce strong winds. With
temperatures warming back to above normal, and afternoon humidity
back into the single digits, we will turn our attention to low-
end fire weather concerns. Next weekend look to add to our stretch
of dry weather, with generally deep westerly flow keeping
temperatures warm and afternoon winds somewhat breezy...i.e.
typical spring conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Sun Mar 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected with SKC-FEW250. Winds will be light
and variable throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 AM MDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Today brings a significant calm to the winds, as the last of
several low pressure storm systems exits overnight. Upper ridging
returns today, and a two-day temperature jump to much warmer and
drier conditions, but luckily, without a lot of winds. Today's
winds will be light, and Monday will see some marginal afternoon
breezes. Temperatures will jump about 10 degrees today, and as
much as an additional 10-14 degrees Monday. RH will be on a sharp
drop, with lowland single-digits common Monday.

Tuesday will be our NEXT CRITICAL fire weather day, as the next
low pressure storm system passes well to our north. No precip, or
moisture with this one, but it will bring a return to plenty of
strong winds. Winds in the 40-60 mph range, with warmer than
normal temps, and very low RH, and very dry fuels will mean
Critical (possibly Extreme) fire weather conditions for Tuesday.
A Fire Weather Watch is in effect, with a Red Flag Warning to
follow today.

The Tuesday storm is quite progressive, and it quickly exits
Tuesday evening. Wednesday will bring back fair weather, with
light winds and cooler temperatures in the NW flow behind the
storm. Thursday and Friday will be dry with some moderate
increases in winds as another trough passes. However this system
is weak, well north, and poorly timed to bring really strong
winds. So conditions will be somewhat elevated, but we shouldn't
slip back into critical conditions. Next weekend looks to continue
with dry conditions, and occasionally breezy afternoon conditions
under a deep and dry west flow pattern aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  42  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            64  38  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               65  37  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               65  36  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               47  31  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    67  40  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              60  36  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   67  36  83  43 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                67  34  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       67  45  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                69  33  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             70  38  88  47 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               60  42  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   69  39  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             65  38  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  44  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            66  35  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    69  34  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 67  38  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                64  36  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  62  36  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                57  32  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 56  31  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  62  29  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                66  37  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                66  34  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             63  34  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   62  33  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    67  30  78  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               63  34  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  62  37  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   70  33  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  67  33  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           68  38  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               64  41  75  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
     Western El Paso County.

NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
     Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black
     Range Foothills-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
     County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
     County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West
     Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

FORECASTER...34-Brown