Red Flag Warning 8, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1120 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1108 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

 - Series of Pacific storms will bring strong winds and a chance
   of showers to the area on Tuesday and Thursday/Friday.

 - Blowing dust/poor visibility will once again be the biggest
   impact on both Tuesday and Thursday afternoon.

 - Fire weather will be a concern for much of the area through
   Friday.

 - Mountain snow and lowland rainfall on Wednesday and again on
   Friday.

 - High Wind Watch will go in effect on Thursday night into Friday
   morning for Sacramento, Black/Gila, and Franklin mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at  423 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Satellite this morning showing open trough over west central
Arizona this morning. Some convection is noted over central and
east central Arizona ahead of the trough this morning with a
lightning strikes seen early this morning north and east of
Phoenix and southeast of Prescott, Arizona. An analysis of early
morning CAMs models continues to show some of the showers working
into Hidalgo, Grant counties with scattered rain in the lowlands
and snow showers in the higher elevations and mountain areas.

Unfortunately, as this activity moves east early this morning it
will become isolated from Deming eastward. There is not much
confidence that shower activity will make it any further east than
Deming before dissipating entirely by mid morning.

Models this morning continue to show the open wave quickly moving
out of southern Arizona. The open wave will quickly moving
northeast out of southern Arizona this morning into New Mexico
around the middle of this morning. As open wave moves into the
Borderland, west to southwesterly flow will strengthen over the
Hudspeth County  with west to southwest winds of 20 to 25 with
gusts to 35 especially over the higher terrain areas and portions
of the eastern slopes of the Franklins this afternoon through
Sunset. A Wind Advisory will go in this morning at 9am and
persist until 6pm for Hudspeth county.

On the heels of the aforementioned shortwave, a higher amplitude
trough will into the Great Basin on Thursday, with deepening lee
cyclogenesis occurring over far northeastern Colorado. West to
southwest flow will again strengthen with Wind Advisories likely
needed in the lowlands on Thursday afternoon into the overnight
hours. A High Wind Watch will go in effect on Thursday evening and
persist through mid day Friday over the eastern slopes of the
Black/Gila range and eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Otero, and
Franklins with west to southwest winds of 40 to 50 mph with gusts
pushing 60 to 70 mph with some locally higher gusts.

An inch and perhaps a touch more in the Gila Region on Friday
morning, and around an inch in the Sacramentos as well. Scattered
showers west of the Divide early Friday, then becoming isolated as
it trough races eastward into the southern and central Plains with
perhaps a brief period of light rain reaching El Paso and Las
Cruces early Friday morning. It will be quite Windy during the day
on Friday with westerly flow with the wind direction around 270 to
290 direction. This will favor localized dust sources near
Deming and over northern Chihuahua with localized blowing dust
favoring Deming to Las Cruces and areas south of El Paso.

A pair of fast moving shortwaves embedded within northwest flow
behind the departing long wave trough will bring chances for
mountain snow showers and rain/snow showers on Friday night into
Saturday morning in the lowlands, then all rain by Saturday
afternoon in the lowlands.

By Saturday night, the quick moving shortwaves will push into
central Texas as a ridge of high pressure push over the Baja by
Sunday night. Light winds and dry weather will prevail on Sunday
and Monday. The ridge will flatten out by Monday as a trough moves
ashore and into the Great Basin by Monday night. West to southwest
winds low and mid level winds will strengthen over the Borderland
with breezy to windy conditions and some blowing dusts on Tuesday.

Temperatures will fluctuate the next few days, with temperatures
a few degrees below normal, then around normal for Thursday. For
Friday and Saturday, high temperatures will be 10 to 15 degree
below normal before a steady warmup will start on Sunday with
temperatures at or a few degrees above normal.

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Approaching upper wave will bring increased cloud cover and
scattered showers Wednesday morning. Beginning the period with
SKC-FEW150, becoming SCT-BKN060 across W NM by 12Z with scattered
SHRA. Surface winds 240-260 at 10 to 15 knots overnight. RA
coverage becoming more isolated as it crosses the Rio Grande
corridor between 14-16Z Wednesday morning, dissipating completely
and clearing by noon tomorrow. Gusty west flow all day tomorrow,
generally 260-280 at 20 to 25 knots with peak gusts to 35 knots in
the late morning. Blowing dust not expected to be a major factor
tomorrow, but patchy dust plumes may reduce visibility to 4-6
miles temporally.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

This morning we have some breezy and gusty winds and those breezy
gusty winds will continue into the afternoon be the gusts drop off
by early evening (if not sooner). Winds will be generally light
from the southwest through the overnight hours. But the breezy
and gusty winds will return by late Thursday morning. For
planning purposes, the breezy winds late Thursday morning will
continue to increase through the afternoon and evening hours. We
will have very windy conditions Thursday night into Friday
morning. There is some potential for damaging winds Friday morning
along the east slopes of area mountains. These damaging winds
could impact KELP. For ceilings, we will have generally unlimited
ceilings this afternoon, but high clouds will build across the
area from west to east, to give us high ceilings this evening
into tonight of BKN250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 423 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Gusty to windy conditions and Min RH values in the 20s mainly east
of the Rio Grande will lead to near critical fire weather
conditions. Scattered showers in the lowlands and scattered snow
showers in the mountains will keep RH values in the 30s west of
the Divide as a shortwave pushes over the area. On Thursday,Min RH
values will fall into the teens from Deming eastward along with
windy conditions on Thursday night will lead to critical fire
weather conditions. A couple of shortwaves on Friday will bring
more widespread snow and rain chances into the area with light
accumulations in the Gila and Sacramentos. Winds will remain
breezy to windy on Friday into Saturday with RH values in the 20s
in the lowlands Friday and 30s in the mountains. For Saturday, Min
RH values in the lowlands in the 20s west of the Rio Grande with
teens elsewhere and RH above 30 in the mountains. Rh values will
decrease into the teens on Sunday and single digits in the
lowlands on Monday, but winds will be light both days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  44  76  41 /  20   0   0  70
Sierra Blanca            63  39  73  37 /  10   0   0  40
Las Cruces               65  37  70  34 /  20   0   0  80
Alamogordo               67  38  72  31 /  10   0   0  80
Cloudcroft               44  30  48  15 /  10   0   0  80
Truth or Consequences    68  40  69  36 /  10   0   0  80
Silver City              56  35  61  24 /  50   0  10 100
Deming                   66  35  71  33 /  30   0   0  90
Lordsburg                63  34  69  29 /  60   0  10 100
West El Paso Metro       66  45  73  42 /  20   0   0  80
Dell City                67  36  75  37 /  10   0   0  40
Fort Hancock             69  37  80  40 /  10   0   0  50
Loma Linda               59  41  67  34 /  20   0   0  70
Fabens                   68  40  77  40 /  10   0   0  60
Santa Teresa             65  40  72  37 /  20   0   0  80
White Sands HQ           66  45  72  39 /  20   0   0  80
Jornada Range            66  37  70  33 /  10   0   0  90
Hatch                    69  36  73  34 /  10   0   0  80
Columbus                 67  40  74  37 /  20   0   0  90
Orogrande                65  38  70  35 /  20   0   0  80
Mayhill                  57  35  61  23 /  10   0   0  70
Mescalero                56  33  59  19 /  10   0   0  80
Timberon                 53  31  58  18 /  10   0   0  70
Winston                  59  27  61  19 /  20   0   0  80
Hillsboro                65  36  67  29 /  20   0   0  90
Spaceport                68  34  70  30 /  10   0   0  80
Lake Roberts             56  33  60  21 /  50   0  20 100
Hurley                   58  32  64  25 /  40   0  10 100
Cliff                    63  29  67  23 /  60   0  20 100
Mule Creek               57  34  61  25 /  60   0  30 100
Faywood                  59  37  64  28 /  30   0  10 100
Animas                   66  36  69  31 /  60   0  10 100
Hachita                  64  35  69  31 /  50   0   0  90
Antelope Wells           65  37  69  32 /  40   0   0  90
Cloverdale               59  39  61  30 /  50   0   0 100

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth
     Highlands.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County-
     Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County.

NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Otero Mesa.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern
     Black Range Foothills-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
     Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
     Sands.

&&

FORECASTER...15-Brice