Red Flag Warning 14, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1109 AM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 940 AM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

 - Very windy conditions across the area this afternoon will
   create blowing dust in the lowlands and critical fire danger

 - Tomorrow will be breezy with blowing dust and critical fire
   danger

 - Light lowland rain and modest mountain snow chances Friday and
   Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

A large upper trough will continue to dig over the Great Basin
today. A strong jet of 120-130KT will induce lee troughing over
eastern CO/western KS this afternoon bringing us strong winds
across the area. Wind speeds will be 30-40MPH with gusts to
55-60MPH. Blowing dust in the desert lowlands is almost guaranteed
and will probably cause issues for motorists this afternoon and
evening. A secondary lobe of energy from the parent low will
influence the area tomorrow bringing breezy conditions and more
blowing dust. Wind speeds don't look to reach wind advisory
criteria but will be around 20-30MPH with gusts to 40-45MPH. The
upper trough continues to dig over the western CONUS shifting flow
southwesterly overhead on Thursday. Light breezes and mostly dry
conditions can be expected. The trough transitions into a cutoff
low by late in the work week and continues to dig further south
before moving eastward over the Borderland. Looks like the area
can expect possible lowland rain and mountain snow showers
starting Friday and ending Sunday. Right now it looks like the
Sacramento Mtns could get a decent snow out of this system.
Current storm total snow forecast of 3-6" expected in the
Sacramentos with 1-3" in the Black Range. Current NBM
probabilities show the average snow totals being 4-5", low end
probability (10th percentile) is 1", with the high end
probabilities being around 11". Will be something to monitor in
the coming days as we continue to get newer model data.

&&

(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 940 AM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon with west to
southwest winds around 25-35G45-50KTS with higher speeds on
eastern slopes including KELP. Blowing dust will again be a
concern through sunset with areas of reduced visibilities under
1SM and KELP has a moderate chance of getting down to around 1/4SM
between 21Z-01Z. Winds will gradually decrease after 03Z but will
start to pick up again towards 18Z. Skies generally FEW-BKN250
through the afternoon then some clearing before a band of FEW-
SCT100-120 SCT-BKN120-150 moves in towards 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Critical fire danger today and tomorrow. A very windy day is
expected today across the area with a west southwest wind
30-40MPH with gusts to 60 MPH coupled with critical min RHs of
10-15% across the lowlands. Breezy west winds of 20-30 MPH with
gusts to 45MPH expected tomorrow with continued dry conditions and
critical RHs across the lowlands. A fire weather watch has been
issued Wednesday for all zones excluding the mountain zones.
Thursday and throughout the weekend will feature light afternoon
breezes each day but critical min RHs will continue to be seen
Thursday and Friday leading to elevated fire danger those two
days. Lowland rain and mountain snow showers look to arrive Friday
lasting through Saturday and ending on Sunday which will increase
min RHs above critical thresholds this weekend.

Ventilation rates will be excellent today and tomorrow becoming
very good to excellent Friday and throughout the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  83  48  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            79  45  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               76  38  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               76  40  64  34 /  10  10  10   0
Cloudcroft               53  26  40  22 /   0   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    74  39  63  33 /   0   0  10   0
Silver City              64  34  54  27 /   0   0  10   0
Deming                   78  38  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                73  35  62  29 /   0   0  10   0
West El Paso Metro       80  48  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                81  43  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             86  47  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               74  42  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   84  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             79  43  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           78  46  66  42 /   0   0  10   0
Jornada Range            76  40  64  33 /   0   0  10   0
Hatch                    77  40  66  34 /   0   0  10   0
Columbus                 80  43  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                77  41  65  36 /  10   0  10   0
Mayhill                  66  33  53  29 /   0   0  10   0
Mescalero                64  30  51  26 /   0   0  10   0
Timberon                 63  28  51  24 /   0  10  10   0
Winston                  64  25  53  20 /   0   0  10   0
Hillsboro                71  36  61  30 /   0   0  10   0
Spaceport                74  36  63  29 /   0   0  10   0
Lake Roberts             64  30  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
Hurley                   69  31  58  24 /   0   0  10   0
Cliff                    71  30  61  25 /   0   0  10   0
Mule Creek               64  32  55  26 /   0   0  10  10
Faywood                  69  35  58  29 /   0   0  10   0
Animas                   76  37  64  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  76  37  63  30 /   0   0  10   0
Antelope Wells           76  42  63  32 /  10   0  10   0
Cloverdale               71  39  57  31 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Rio Grande Valley
     of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande
     Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern
     Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
     Western El Paso County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County-
     Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-
     West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
     NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Southwest
     Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for East
     Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
     Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Southeast Tularosa
     Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
     Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres
     Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
     Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
     the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
     County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
     County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
     Bootheel.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ.

&&

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz