Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1207 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1046 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms area wide this afternoon
   and tonight. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flash
   flooding.

 - Warmer and drier weather pattern beginning Thursday into this
   weekend. Isolated storms over mountains and mostly dry for the
   lowlands with highs 95-102.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1046 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Synoptic pattern of low/trough to our west, and ridging to our
east has our region in the heart of a N-S moisture plume. Sfc
dewpoints are in the U50s and L60s (juicy), and PWATs are well
over an inch (EPZ - 1.30" on 12Z sounding). That means we have
plenty of moisture in place over the region. In fact, we still
have ongoing shower activity over the heart of the CWA, from
overnight. Within this channel overhead, we have a large
disturbance area, that is slowly tracking from south to north
across western NM. This is a feature the models are keying on to
produce convection for tdy/tngt. On the flip side, we also have a
pretty thick veil of mid-deck clouds over the region. The 12Z
sounding was mildly unstable, with no caps or CIN, with tall
skinny CAPE. Al this suggests rapid destabilization today, with
scattered to numerous showers and storms. However, the clouds are
retarding heating, and thus we are in a holding pattern, waiting
for breaks to add surface heating to the lower atmosphere. HRRR
12Z does show a fair batch of convective activity getting started
after noon, mainly W, mountains, and N areas. Then some over
southern lowlands in the evening, with showers/storms moving in
from the SW over ELP late evening. Showers/storms should be
efficient rain producers, as the sounding shows deep and rich
moisture over the area today. Storm motion will be somewhat
slow...10-12 kts to the NE. Thus storms could produce heavy rain,
with flooding risk being our biggest hazard threat today/tonight.

Starting tomorrow, WED, we begin to see a drying trend as high
pressure to our south begins to "connect a center off the Baja
with the center over the Gulf states. Over the next 48 hours we
will see a W to E ridge of high pressure form to our south, that
will block moisture. At the same time, we will begin to see a
drying west wind. Thus we begin to see a downward trend in
aftn/eve showers and storms WED, with fewer lowland storms, storms
strongly favoring area mountains, and chances for overnight rain
strongly diminished.

FRI-SUN, the ridge begins to migrate north and settle over our
region. This should provide some more drying and significant
capping. We expect to see a strong drop off in showers and storm,
likely limited only to area mountains. In addition, we will see
temperatures rise back above normal, with lowland highs in the
U90s to around 100+.

As we get into next week, Monday and beyond, we see that ridge of
high pressure rotate north to CO. This will open the door for
moisture to move back in on deep SE winds. Thus we will bring in
moisture, add clouds, cool temperatures, and increase rain and
storm chances for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

A lingering area of light rain showers remain over parts of south
central New Mexico with cigs OVC090-100. In addition, there
remains a healthy veil of mid-level clouds across the region.
Still all terminals are at VFR conditions, and predominate that
way through the period. The ongoing shower activity, and slow
heating due to the cloud cover, should retard today's shower and
storm redevelopment until later in the afternoon hours. Thus
expect isolated lowland, and possible scattered convection to
develop again this afternoon (aft 18Z), first over the mountains,
and then by mid to late afternoon (23Z) developing over the
lowlands...with BKN040-060CB 3-5SM TSRA. Main threat with storms
today, is heavy rain, and flood potential. Thus if any storm moves
over a terminal, expect MVFR to IFR conditions with low cigs and
heavy rain dropping VSBYs. Pea- size hail and wind gusts of 25-35
knots are possible with some storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1046 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Healthy and deep moisture over the region today. Surface dewpoints
are strong in the U50s to L60s. Plenty of mid-level clouds, and
even lingering showers from the overnight period. This means
cooler temperatures and higher humidity again today. Once we warm
a bit more, we will gain enough heat to make the atmosphere deeply
unstable, and begin to see scattered mountain shower and storm
development, followed by later afternoon lowland development. With
the high moisture content of the atmosphere, we expect moderate to
heavy rainfall with today's activity, thus low dry lightning
chances, and elevated flooding chances. MIN RH will stay up into
the 20-30% range this afternoon, with excellent recovery tonight.
Below normal temperatures today.

We begin a drying and warming trend as early tomorrow. Temps still
near normal WED. RH still higher than normal. But we should see a
reduction in storm/rain coverage.

Thursday, and especially FRI through SUN, we see a ridge of high
pressure build W to E across the region. This will cut off the
moisture, as westerly winds bring in drier air. Thus we will see
significant warming of temperatures to above normal, and
significant lower of minRH back into the teens. With this we will
see few to no storms. This is expected to be a short, three-day,
break in the moisture.

Monday and beyond, the ridge is expected to bump north, which will
allow a return of gulf moisture on deep SE flow back into the
region. We will see storm and rain chances increase again, as
temperatures trim back a bit, and MinRH bumps back up out of the
teens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  93  72  98 /  60  20  10   0
Sierra Blanca            63  85  65  90 /  70  30  10  10
Las Cruces               65  89  65  94 /  60  30  10   0
Alamogordo               65  88  67  92 /  60  40  10  10
Cloudcroft               48  66  50  71 /  60  60  10  30
Truth or Consequences    66  87  67  93 /  60  60  20   0
Silver City              59  82  60  86 /  70  50  20  10
Deming                   66  92  65  96 /  60  20  10   0
Lordsburg                64  88  65  92 /  60  30  10   0
West El Paso Metro       69  90  71  95 /  60  20  10   0
Dell City                68  91  67  96 /  50  20   0   0
Fort Hancock             71  92  72  97 /  70  30  10  10
Loma Linda               63  84  66  89 /  60  20   0   0
Fabens                   69  92  70  96 /  70  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             67  89  69  94 /  60  20  10   0
White Sands HQ           69  89  71  94 /  60  30  10   0
Jornada Range            65  88  66  93 /  60  40  20   0
Hatch                    66  91  66  96 /  60  50  20   0
Columbus                 68  92  68  96 /  50  10  10   0
Orogrande                66  87  67  91 /  60  30  10  10
Mayhill                  55  78  57  81 /  50  60   0  30
Mescalero                53  77  55  81 /  60  60  10  30
Timberon                 51  74  54  78 /  50  40  10  20
Winston                  55  79  56  84 /  70  70  20  10
Hillsboro                61  86  62  91 /  70  50  20   0
Spaceport                64  88  64  92 /  60  50  20   0
Lake Roberts             54  82  54  87 /  70  70  30  10
Hurley                   61  85  60  90 /  60  50  10  10
Cliff                    62  89  62  93 /  70  50  20  10
Mule Creek               59  84  60  89 /  70  50  10   0
Faywood                  61  84  62  89 /  60  50  20   0
Animas                   64  89  65  92 /  60  20  10   0
Hachita                  63  88  63  92 /  60  20  10   0
Antelope Wells           62  88  63  91 /  60  20  10  10
Cloverdale               60  83  61  87 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-
     West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

FORECASTER...14-Bird