Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1106 AM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms area wide this afternoon,
   then favoring western New Mexico and the high terrain over the
   weekend. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flash
   flooding.

 - Near normal late July temperatures, lowland highs in the upper
   nineties to one hundred degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Monsoonal upper high remains fixed over the southern Gulf states,
extending west across Texas and New Mexico today. Steady flow
aloft of moisture will continue our ongoing weather pattern
favorable for thunderstorms. Two upper lows can be seen on
satellite water vapor imagery, one over west-central Mexico and
the other off the coast of Baja California. Minimal synoptic
forcing is present, lacking wind shear aloft and cloud layer mean
flow less than 15 knots. This morning's sounding also shows weak
subsident flow within the 500 mb layer, further eroding convective
acceleration today.

Moisture profile shows surface dewpoints in the mid 50s and PW
values 1.2-1.4" across the forecast area. Slightly higher
moisture exists over SW New Mexico, where I expect thunderstorm
coverage to be a bit higher this evening.

...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
Early start to storm chances over the high terrain, with scattered
to numerous coverage across the Black Range, Gila Forest, and
Sacramento Mountains. Burn scar flooding is the main concern in
the next couple hours. Storms will then spread across the NM
lowlands, favoring SW New Mexico with scattered hit-an-miss
coverage. Most (if not all) storms will be non-severe but could
result in gusty winds and brief downpours. Rain showers will stick
around later tonight, diminishing after midnight.

...THIS WEEKEND...
Better storm coverage across western New Mexico this weekend as
the plume of deepest moisture shifts westward. Best chances will
be mostly west of the Rio Grande, in particular Grant/Hidalgo
Counties. Texas counties may end up completely dry.

...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
Uptick in storm chance once again as the main plume of moisture
focuses directly overhead. GFS shows PWs in the 1.4-1.6" range,
further increasing flooding risk.

...LATE NEXT WEEK...
Upper high makes a full retrograde over the south-central US by
next Wednesday, suppressing storm severity and reducing coverage
of thunderstorms. However, with moisture still hanging around
can't completely rule out rain chances each afternoon after
Wednesday. Coverage will be scattered over mountains and more
isolated across the desert lowlands. This will also keep
temperatures near normal for late July, with lowland highs in the
upper 90s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

SCT-BKN090CB this afternoon, with the higher storm coverage
across W NM. Direct storm impacts possible at KTCS/KDMN this
evening, lower chances for KELP/KLRU. Omitted mention of TS at
KELP this cycle due to lower confidence, but VCTS is possible
between 23-03Z this evening. Will amend TAF if confidence
increases. Surface winds 150-180 at 05-10 knots with stronger
surface gusts near TS outflows. Light winds and skies SCT-BKN110
overnight into Saturday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Primary fire threat remains focused around thunderstorm hazards.
Scattered storms across both GNF and LNF this afternoon, spreading
across the NM lowlands this evening. Storms will be capable of
flash flooding, especially around burn scars. Prevailing winds out
of the south 5 to 10 mph resulting in Fair ventilation and min RH
30-40% today. Scattered storms continue this weekend with the
best chances across GNF and western NM. No major shifts in the
weather pattern next week, with daily afternoon storm chances,
near normal temperatures, and light prevailing flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75  99  77 100 /  40  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            66  92  68  93 /  20  10  10  20
Las Cruces               68  95  70  96 /  60  10  30  10
Alamogordo               70  96  71  96 /  30  20  10  20
Cloudcroft               52  73  53  74 /  30  40  10  50
Truth or Consequences    69  94  71  95 /  60  40  40  40
Silver City              63  87  62  88 /  70  70  70  70
Deming                   68  97  70  98 /  70  30  50  30
Lordsburg                67  94  67  93 /  70  70  70  60
West El Paso Metro       74  96  75  97 /  50  10  20  10
Dell City                71  97  71  98 /  20  10   0  10
Fort Hancock             74  99  75 100 /  20  10  10  30
Loma Linda               68  90  69  91 /  30  10  10  20
Fabens                   73  97  75  98 /  30  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             71  95  73  96 /  50  10  20  20
White Sands HQ           73  96  75  97 /  50  10  20  20
Jornada Range            69  95  70  96 /  60  20  30  30
Hatch                    69  97  70  98 /  60  30  40  30
Columbus                 71  96  72  97 /  70  20  50  20
Orogrande                69  94  71  95 /  30  10  10  20
Mayhill                  57  83  58  84 /  30  40  10  40
Mescalero                56  84  58  85 /  30  40  10  50
Timberon                 56  81  57  82 /  30  30  10  40
Winston                  58  85  58  85 /  70  60  50  70
Hillsboro                64  93  65  93 /  70  50  50  50
Spaceport                67  94  67  96 /  60  30  30  30
Lake Roberts             57  88  57  88 /  70  80  70  80
Hurley                   63  90  63  90 /  70  60  60  60
Cliff                    66  94  66  95 /  60  80  60  70
Mule Creek               63  89  63  90 /  60  80  60  70
Faywood                  65  90  65  90 /  70  60  60  60
Animas                   68  93  68  93 /  70  70  80  60
Hachita                  66  92  67  93 /  70  60  70  50
Antelope Wells           66  91  67  90 /  80  70  80  70
Cloverdale               63  86  63  85 /  80  80  80  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt

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