Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
214 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

 -  We will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
    today. Heavy rain and flash flooding is possible mainly west
    of the Rio Grande.

 -  Drier air will move in for the Forth of July through Sunday.

 -  Temperatures will be below normal through Friday, then will
    warm back up to above normal this weekend. Some areas will
    reach 100 degrees again along the Rio Grande Lower Valley.

 -  Rain chances start to creep back into the forecast as we move
 	further into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

To get thunderstorms, you need three things, moisture, lift and
instability. We have one of those things, moisture, in abundance,
but the other two are lacking. The lift and the instability are
still on the low side of things. We are already seeing showers
develop across the region, but they are struggling without the
instability and lift. Later today, an upper level trough to our
west will begin to move in our direction which will increase our
lift and instability a little. So we will see more widespread
convection this afternoon and evening. Where thunderstorms do get
up and going, with the abundant moisture, we could see some heavy
rainfall in places. The showers and thunderstorms look to slow
down during the overnight hours, but as the upper level trough
gets a little closer we will see more showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday, with the better chance for rain east of the Rio Grande
this time.

For Friday and into the weekend, as the upper level trough moves
to our east, it will sweep in drier air, which will greatly reduce
our rain chances and it will creep our high temperatures back a
little above average. For Saturday and Sunday, we will be
generally hot and dry as an upper level ridge settles over New
Mexico. High temperatures both days will run 3 to 5 degrees above
average, which will allow many lowland locations to hit the triple
digit mark.

For the first of next week, the position of the upper level high
will make all the difference for our rain chances. If the ridge
stay centered near New Mexico, it will limit our rain chances and
keep our highs above average, but if the upper level ridge drifts
to our west, as the models indicate, the ridge will be able to
pull down some recycled monsoon moisture from up north. By midweek
next week, the deterministic GFS has the upper level ridge over
the intermountain west which would be good for rain chances, while
the deterministic ECMWF keeps the ridge centered much closer to
New Mexico which would limit convection. For now I've gone down
the middle of these two and brought rain chances back into the
forecast, but I haven't hit things too hard yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Deep monsoonal moisture interacting with an approaching upper-
level disturbance will fuel scattered to numerous thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for
thunderstorm activity will be across the higher terrain of
southwest New Mexico, impacting the KDMN and KTCS terminals
primarily after 03Z. For this reason, PROB30 groups have been
included for thunderstorms, which could produce heavy rain, gusty
outflow winds, and MVFR ceilings/visibility. For KELP and KLRU,
the primary impact will be lower ceilings and periods of showers.
I have included PRBO30's for those stations as well, but my
confidence is not as high as for KTCS and KDMN. Winds will
generally remain southeasterly and light, outside of any
convective outflows.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Deep monsoonal moisture combined with an approaching upper-level
trough will fuel scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
today and Thursday. The highest potential for heavy rain and
flash flooding is west of the Rio Grande today, with a Flood Watch
in effect for much of southern New Mexico. The focus for
precipitation will shift eastward on Thursday. Temperatures will
remain below normal with light winds. Ventilation rates will be
poor to fair, especially in eastern areas today, with some
improvement in western zones on Thursday. Critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

A significant drying and warming trend will begin on Friday and
continue through the weekend as the trough exits and an upper-
level ridge builds over the region. This will lead to greatly
reduced rain chances and temperatures climbing to above-normal
readings, with many lowland locations reaching the 100-degree
mark. Winds will remain light, but deeper mixing will allow
ventilation rates to improve to good or very good. By early next
week, the position of the ridge becomes less certain, but models
indicate a potential for monsoonal moisture to return,
reintroducing precipitation chances. No critical fire weather is
anticipated during this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  90  74  98 /  70  40  40   0
Sierra Blanca            64  80  65  88 /  70  70  50  10
Las Cruces               66  88  67  95 /  80  50  50   0
Alamogordo               65  87  66  94 /  60  70  40  10
Cloudcroft               48  65  50  71 /  50  80  30  20
Truth or Consequences    68  88  68  95 /  70  60  30   0
Silver City              59  81  61  86 /  80  80  50  20
Deming                   68  91  68  97 /  80  60  50  10
Lordsburg                66  88  66  92 /  80  70  60  30
West El Paso Metro       71  88  74  94 /  80  40  50   0
Dell City                66  83  68  93 /  50  50  20   0
Fort Hancock             70  88  71  95 /  70  60  50  10
Loma Linda               64  79  65  87 /  60  50  30   0
Fabens                   69  88  71  95 /  70  50  40   0
Santa Teresa             68  87  71  93 /  80  50  50   0
White Sands HQ           70  88  71  95 /  70  50  50   0
Jornada Range            66  88  66  94 /  70  60  50  10
Hatch                    67  91  68  96 /  70  60  50   0
Columbus                 70  91  72  95 /  80  50  60  10
Orogrande                67  85  67  92 /  60  60  40   0
Mayhill                  53  74  55  81 /  60  90  30  20
Mescalero                53  76  55  83 /  50  80  30  20
Timberon                 52  71  52  79 /  60  80  40  10
Winston                  55  80  56  86 /  70  80  40  10
Hillsboro                62  86  63  92 /  70  70  50  10
Spaceport                65  87  65  93 /  70  70  40   0
Lake Roberts             56  83  56  88 /  90  80  50  20
Hurley                   61  85  62  90 /  80  70  40  20
Cliff                    64  89  64  93 /  90  80  50  20
Mule Creek               61  84  61  88 /  90  80  40  20
Faywood                  63  83  64  89 /  80  80  40  10
Animas                   67  88  66  92 /  70  70  70  40
Hachita                  65  87  66  92 /  80  70  60  20
Antelope Wells           65  86  66  90 /  90  80  80  50
Cloverdale               62  81  63  85 /  90  80  80  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Grant County/Silver
     City Area-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
     Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
     Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila
     Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
     Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

FORECASTER...15-Brice

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