Flash Flood Warning 149, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1226 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1125 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

-  Moisture will start to diminish beginning tomorrow and through
   the weekend. This will lead to a decrease in storm coverage
   each day.

-  Even drier air pushes in Thursday and Friday with less and less
   storm coverage focusing over the area mountains.

-  Temperatures remaining near normal through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Thunderstorm chances persist at least the next several days but
today looks to be the last day with abundant moisture which will
bring the best coverage for storms. This mornings sounding had a
PW of 1.35" which is above the 90th percentile (well above
average). In addition, a tall and skinny CAPE profile is evident
with fairly weak winds through much of the low and mid levels
which will aid in the flash flooding threat today. Wind gusts from
outflows won't be too much of a concern with gusts generally up to
45 mph directly near thunderstorms. Blowing dust may also
accompany wind gusts. As high pressure stays over the Four
Corners, this will entrain drier continental air which will slowly
diminish thunderstorm chances with the decrease in moisture. PW
values tomorrow should be around 1.1"-1.2" which is still above
average. Localized flooding will still be a concern with storms
tomorrow. By Thursday and onward, the best chances for
precipitation will be the area mountains with very low to no
chances in the desert lowlands. PWs will be near average Thursday,
then below average Friday and onward.

Decreasing moisture will greatly reduce the flood threat but the
threat for gusty outflow winds will increase with gusts generally
up to 50 mph. This stubborn high pressure stays over the Four
Corners through the weekend which will continue to scour out
moisture and will continue to dwindle precipitation chances with
the best chances being over the area mountains. Highs stay near
normal with lowland temperatures in the 90s with area mountains
seeing temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Thunderstorms are popping up over the higher terrain late this
morning. Storms will push northeast to southwest through the
afternoon and early evening. KELP has a decent chance to see a
storm this afternoon as well as KLRU. KTCS has a shot and KDMN has
the worst chance to see a storm at terminals. Storms will feature
heavy downpours which will cause restrictions in visibilities. In
addition, outflow winds up to around 35KT directly near storms
and blowing dust could get lofted up. Some hi-res models are
suggesting an outflow that pushes east to west reaching KDMN
around 6-8PM. KDMN has been notorious this year for BLDU. Winds
may loft up dust due to this.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Low fire concerns each day through the weekend as min RHs stay
above critical thresholds each afternoon. Expect min RH values
around 18-30% starting tomorrow and through the weekend. Pretty
good overnight recoveries the next couple days. Tonight's max RHs
will be 60-80% across the lowlands and 85-100% in the mountains.
Thursday morning max RHs will be the same as Wednesday for the
mountains but the lowlands will see around 50-70%. Drier air
filters in and storm chances dwindle Thursday and onward focusing
over the area mountains with very little to no activity in the
desert lowlands. Winds will stay fairly light each afternoon with
20 foot winds generally out of the southeast at 4-8mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  74  94  75  96 /  30  20  10  10
Sierra Blanca            64  88  64  89 /  20  40  10  20
Las Cruces               67  90  68  92 /  40  20  10  10
Alamogordo               67  89  67  92 /  10  30  10  10
Cloudcroft               49  67  49  70 /  20  60  10  20
Truth or Consequences    69  90  69  92 /  40  20  10  10
Silver City              63  86  63  88 /  50  40  20  30
Deming                   70  94  69  96 /  40  20  10  10
Lordsburg                69  94  70  94 /  50  30  20  10
West El Paso Metro       72  91  73  93 /  40  20  10  10
Dell City                67  91  67  93 /  20  20   0  10
Fort Hancock             72  93  71  94 /  30  30  10  20
Loma Linda               66  85  65  87 /  30  20   0  10
Fabens                   71  92  71  94 /  30  20   0  10
Santa Teresa             70  91  70  92 /  40  20  10  10
White Sands HQ           72  91  72  94 /  30  30  10  10
Jornada Range            68  90  68  92 /  30  30  10  10
Hatch                    69  93  69  94 /  40  20  10  10
Columbus                 71  94  72  94 /  40  10  10   0
Orogrande                68  88  67  91 /  20  20  10  10
Mayhill                  55  78  54  81 /  20  60  10  30
Mescalero                54  78  53  81 /  20  50  10  20
Timberon                 54  75  53  78 /  20  50  10  20
Winston                  57  84  57  86 /  50  40  20  30
Hillsboro                63  90  64  92 /  50  30  20  20
Spaceport                67  90  67  92 /  40  20  10  10
Lake Roberts             57  86  57  89 /  50  50  30  50
Hurley                   64  88  64  90 /  50  40  10  20
Cliff                    66  93  65  95 /  50  40  20  30
Mule Creek               62  89  63  91 /  40  50  20  40
Faywood                  65  87  65  89 /  50  40  10  20
Animas                   69  94  68  95 /  50  30  20  10
Hachita                  67  91  67  93 /  40  20  10  10
Antelope Wells           66  91  67  92 /  50  20  10   0
Cloverdale               65  87  65  89 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...37-Slusher