Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
535 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

 - Best rain chances will be today and tomorrow with flash
   flooding being the primary hazard.

 - High pressure influences the area starting Wednesday and
   remains over the area through the weekend focusing storm
   chances westward and over the area mountains.

-  Lingering moisture keeps temperatures near to below average
   throughout the work week becoming warmer than average over the
   weekend thanks to high pressure.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

High pressure to the east will continue to funnel in monsoonal
moisture today and tomorrow. Moisture content in the atmosphere is
above average with this mornings sounding reading a PW value of
1.36” which is right around the 90th percentile. In addition,
dewpoints across the area are in the 50s and 60s with the best
moisture out east. Today will be an active day with the biggest
concern being flash flooding from storms, but also monitoring
gusty outflow winds over locations out west with the blowing dust
threat as well. The Lordsburg Playa and many locations along the
I-10 corridor in and around Deming and traveling west to the AZ
border have been notorious this year for dust. The area mountains
fire off around mid-day today with more isolated to scattered
activity in the lowlands. The Gila region and locations west of
the Rio Grande Valley look to be the prime area for heavy rain
tonight. Looks like convection and showers persist into the
overnight hours with some lingering showery activity possible
Tuesday morning.

Moisture sticks around Tuesday with the monsoonal plume
overhead. A theme we have noticed over the years is if one general
area gets a lot of rain the day prior, the ground is too wet/takes
longer for the ground to heat up leading to little to no
convection in that area over the next day. Looks fairly likely
that locations west of the RGV will have the best rain chances
today but CAMs are suggesting locations east of the RGV could be
the best chances for storms on Tuesday afternoon. Either way, the
biggest impacts from storms will be torrential rainfall leading to
flash flooding and gusty outflow winds. Looks like lingering
storms and showers are possible Tuesday and into Wednesday but
doesn’t look as widespread as it does for tonight. High pressure
retrogrades westward and looks to settle over the area by
Thursday. As this high pressure moves westward, this shifts the
monsoonal plume over western locations of the CWA and AZ which is
where storm chances will be best. High pressure will start to
gradually warm and somewhat dry out the area Thursday and Friday.
Recycled moisture trapped under the high pressure will allow for a
more typical monsoon day with scattered thunderstorms in the area
mountains and isolated storms later in the desert lowlands both
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Ongoing convection remains generally west of the Rio Grande
Valley, with SHRA along and east of the RGV for KELP and KLRU.
TSRA for KDMN and KTCS will persist through ~02Z with MVFR to IFR
conditions likely with lowering CIGS and reduction to VIS down to
1-3 SM due to +SHRA and BLDU. Winds currently light and VRB at
KELP and KLRU with stronger winds currently impact KTCS and KDMN
with ongoing TSRA. Prevailing winds will be west to northwest
through the evening with BKN to OVC skies through the evening and
overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Best thunderstorm chances will be today and tomorrow as abundant
moisture is available in the atmosphere which will allow for
storms to produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Gusty
outflow winds with storms expected with the gustiest winds being
near locations bordering AZ. The monsoonal plume of moisture gets
shoved west of the Rio Grande Wednesday which is where storm
chances can be focused with more isolated to scattered coverage
elsewhere. High pressure gets settled overhead Thursday and Friday
allowing for temperatures to warm with storm chances continuing,
just more of a typical monsoon day with scattered thunderstorms in
the area mountains and isolated converge in the lowlands. Min RH
values stay above critical thresholds each day through Saturday
with a possible return of critical RHs Sunday. Winds stay light at
5-10 mph each afternoon outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  73  93  73  97 /  60  30  30  20
Sierra Blanca            66  90  66  92 /  60  30  10  10
Las Cruces               67  88  67  92 /  60  40  50  30
Alamogordo               66  88  67  92 /  50  50  30  40
Cloudcroft               50  67  50  69 /  60  60  30  60
Truth or Consequences    67  87  68  90 /  70  50  40  50
Silver City              61  82  62  85 /  70  70  50  70
Deming                   68  91  68  95 /  70  50  50  40
Lordsburg                67  90  67  92 /  70  60  60  70
West El Paso Metro       70  91  73  94 /  60  30  30  30
Dell City                70  93  70  96 /  40  30  10  10
Fort Hancock             73  95  73  98 /  60  40  20  20
Loma Linda               65  85  67  88 /  50  40  20  20
Fabens                   71  93  72  96 /  60  30  20  10
Santa Teresa             69  90  70  92 /  60  40  40  30
White Sands HQ           70  90  71  93 /  50  50  40  40
Jornada Range            66  88  68  92 /  60  50  50  40
Hatch                    67  90  69  94 /  70  50  50  50
Columbus                 69  90  70  94 /  70  50  50  30
Orogrande                67  87  67  91 /  50  40  30  30
Mayhill                  56  79  56  79 /  60  60  20  60
Mescalero                55  77  55  80 /  60  60  30  70
Timberon                 55  76  55  78 /  50  60  30  50
Winston                  58  79  58  83 /  60  70  40  70
Hillsboro                62  87  63  90 /  70  50  50  60
Spaceport                66  87  67  91 /  70  40  40  50
Lake Roberts             57  83  57  86 /  70  70  60  70
Hurley                   63  84  64  87 /  70  50  50  70
Cliff                    65  90  65  92 /  70  70  50  70
Mule Creek               63  88  62  89 /  60  70  40  70
Faywood                  63  84  65  87 /  70  50  50  70
Animas                   67  90  67  92 /  60  60  60  70
Hachita                  65  87  66  90 /  70  60  60  60
Antelope Wells           65  87  66  90 /  70  70  70  60
Cloverdale               63  84  64  86 /  80  70  70  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills-
     Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-Upper Gila River Valley.

     Flood Watch until 4 AM MDT Tuesday for Lowlands of the Bootheel-
     Northern Dona Ana County-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona
     Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
     Bootheel-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

&&

FORECASTER...38-Rogers

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
526 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     Flash Flood      9 NE Montana Vista      31.92N 106.04W
07/28/2025                   El Paso            TX   Emergency Mngr

            Flooding reported at Hueco State Parks. Low
            Water Crossing topped with over 6 inches of
            water.

&&

ALB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
558 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

NMZ403-408-409-425-426-290030-
Eastern Black Range Foothills NM-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley NM-
Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range NM-Sierra County Lakes NM-
Central Grant County/Silver City Area NM-
558 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL GRANT AND
SOUTHWESTERN SIERRA COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM MDT...

At 558 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Lake Valley, moving west at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 10749 3276 10744 3261 10773 3288 10787
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 076DEG 26KT 3282 10756

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ZA

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