Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
307 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Steadier precipitation followed by showers and
locally brief heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms tonight.
Strong southerly winds will spread south across Mendocino and Lake
counties late this afternoon with the front. Lingering showers
through Monday afternoon/evening, followed by drier conditions on
Tuesday. Another frontal system will bring additional rain,
mountain snow and gusty southerly winds on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR satellite imagery depicts a frontal boundary
along a moderate atmospheric river progressing southeastward
across the area this afternoon. Doppler radar reflectivity return
moderate to heavy rainfall spreading east and south along the
frontal boundary. Max hourly rain rates reported has been between
0.25 and 0.50 inches, specially over the south-southwest windward
facing terrain. In addition, strong southerly winds continue to be
observed over the coastal headlands and exposed ridges in Del
Norte and Humboldt counties, where gusts from 40 to 55 mph are
being recorded. Winds are still expected to increase for the
Mendocino Coast during the hour or two as the 925-850 jet move
southward and mixing to the surface.

Wind and rain will decrease substantially behind the front bringing
an end to the most impactful weather from this atmospheric river
this evening. However, additional shower activity and possibly
isolated thunder is expected in the wake of the front as the
parent low moves overhead in a colder environment. With snow
levels falling back to around 3000 feet, some higher passes may
have snow accumulations and the potential for chain requirements
through Monday afternoon/evening. HREF probs for 1"/hr is now
suggesting the is a 70-90% for hwy 36, while 30-40% for hwy 299.
6-hourly running means are 1-2 inches of snow, but not sufficient
at this time to warrant an advisory.

High pressure will build on Tuesday providing generally dry
weather for much of the area. Some light showers may linger for
the North Coast and across Del Norte with about a 20-30% chance
for 0.01in. By evening probabilities diminish to less 10% for
0.01in, before southerlies start to ramp up in advance of the next
frontal boundary and a narrow plume of IVT > 250kg/ms arrives on
Wed. Frost and subfreezing minimum temperatures are a concern for
Tue morning, however abundant fog and low clouds in the interior
valleys of Mendo and Lake may counteract the long wave cooling.
NBM probabilities are 90 to 100% for 32F or less. This will need
to be looked at more closely in the next day or so once we get by
the ongoing atmospheric river storm.

Additional frontal systems are forecast for the latter portion
of the week and over the weekend. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble member IVT
forecast indicate means just under 250kg/ms. GEFS has higher
probabilities along 40N and suggest potentially a wetter outcome
than the ECMWF. Perhaps the ECMWF will trend southward and wetter
for NW Cal. Impacts appear to be low from this late week front.
ZVS/DB

&&

.AVIATION...Impactful aviation hazards continued today as another
frontal boundary advanced across the region. The main flight
hazard overnight/today has been LLWS in excess of 62 knots, the
result of a strong low level jet out ahead of the frontal system.
A tight pressure gradient...especially along the far North
Coast...made for strong gusty surface winds. The recorded peak
gust at CEC was 58 knots earlier this morning. Periods of
moderate-heavy precipitation occasionally rendered widespread
conditions down from MVFR to IFR...particularly along the Del
Norte and Humbodlt Coasts. Initial frontal passage: intense
showers with a distinct wind shift and simultaneous revved-up
gusts happened in the early afternoon; ACV, CEC and EKA
experienced such an occurrence about 1:40-1:45 PM. LLWS will relax
in the early evening and surface winds will taper somewhat but
still remain strong in the evening. By late this evening,
instability aloft will be the catalyst for possible thunderstorms
and small hail around the coast including CEC and ACV airports.
/TA

&&

.MARINE....MARINE...Strong Gale forces gusts are being observed
in the inner waters currently. These gales are forecast to
diminish to breezy/ near gale strength this afternoon as the
frontal systems moves away form our area causing the pressure
gradient to level out over the coastal waters. Winds are
forecasted to switch to northerlies tonight through early tomorrow
morning. These northerlies are expected through Tuesday before
another frontal system arriving to the PacNW causes a return to
possible near gale/gale force gusts Wednesday morning. NBM Model
data is suggesting between a 40-50% probability of +40mph (34kt)
gusts in the northern waters Wednesday from 8AM-5PM. More
information on this next system will come in the next day or so as
Hi Res model guidance becomes available. Waves will continue to
remain chaotic through the rest of the day into early next week
due to steep wind waves interacting with a westerly long period
swell. Conditions are expected to be hazardous for smaller crafts
for the rest of this afternoon through Monday.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ101>106.

     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ101-
     102.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ103>106-
     108>112.

     Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for
     CAZ107.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ113>115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450-455-470-
     475.

&&

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Eureka CA
442 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 E Bayview             40.76N 124.17W
03/16/2025                   Humboldt           CA   Public

            Tree uprooted and fell onto Fairway Drive in
            Eureka.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Eureka CA
604 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 9 N Fort Bragg          39.57N 123.77W
03/16/2025                   Mendocino          CA   Law Enforcement

            Tree down on Highway 1 blocking the
            northbound lane and part of the southbound
            lanes.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Eureka CA
605 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 5 N Trinidad            41.14N 124.16W
03/16/2025                   Humboldt           CA   Public

            Trees down on Sue-Meg State Park roads at
            various locations in Park.

&&