Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered Thunderstorms Through Sunday...isolated downbursts
  possible.

- Seasonably Warm and Humid Through This Week

- Additional storms expected Monday night into Tuesday...severe
  weather threat appears low at this time.

- Additional storms expected Friday night into
  Saturday...severe weather may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have impacted much of the
western CWA this morning while this afternoon scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed over the eastern CWA where temperatures
have risen to the upper 80s to 90 degrees. This is our first round
of showers and thunderstorms for today. The second round will come
this evening into tonight as a weak cold front sags into the area. A
few localized strong storms capable of downburst winds cannot be
ruled out which is evidenced by inverted-V soundings however DCAPE
values due not appear to be strong and overall shear is weak.
Consequently, the severe threat is very low with storms this evening
into tonight. The sagging cold front is expected to stall in the
vicinity of the I-70 corridor by tomorrow morning. This will become
the focus for renewed convection late tomorrow morning into the
afternoon as models depict a subtle upper level shortwave moving
through the region. Model soundings again reveal an inverted-V
sounding for tomorrow with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000J/Kg
however, shear remains extremely weak mitigating any more than a
isolated downburst scenario. Highs tomorrow will range from the mid
80s across the north behind the front to near 90 across the southern
CWA ahead of the front. This front is progged to remain across the
southern CWA tomorrow night into Monday continuing the slight chance
(15%-25%) for storms along and south of Highway 50. Highs Monday are
again expected to be in the mid 80s to near 90.

For Monday night into Tuesday models are hinting at a mid-lvel
shortwave that is expected to move through the region on quasi-zonal
flow. The NAM is faster and further south with this feature than
it's GFS counter part and produces an MCS over the area Monday
night. The GFS is further north, slower, and weaker with this
feature which would keep the bulk of the storm activity north of the
area. This feature will need to be monitored for severe potential
Monday night into Tuesday. Another mid-level trough will move
through the region on the day Tuesday into Tuesday night forcing a
cold front into the area and bringing additional rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Despite the NBM holding onto slight chance and
chance PoPs (20%-40%) for Wednesday models are suggesting surface
high pressure building into the area providing for dry conditions.
Dry conditions look to then persist through Friday before a strong
upper level trough moves into the northern Plains Friday night into
Saturday which will bring the next potential for strong to severe
storms. Temperatures through the work week are expected to remain
near seasonal normals with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR conditions will continue through much of the forecast area
through the period. Winds have also been a bit stronger at all of
the TAF sites with gust of 20-25kts which will continue through 07z
and then switch northerly after 13z. However the main concern in the
next 6 hours will be chance of -TSAR that has already developed north
of KSTJ and moving through northern MO. Expect activity between 00z-
08z as it should follow ahead of front sagging southward. Once we
get to 13z-18z there anticipate potential MVFR at the TAF sites with
the SCT025.  As mentioned after 13z see the winds adjust from
northerly with passage of the cold front but anticipate through
remainder of TAF 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...WFO EAX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0505 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-061005-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0505 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered Thunderstorms Throughout Saturday

- Seasonably Warm and Humid Through This Week

- More Shower/Storm Potential This Week

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

MOZ013-014-052345-
Daviess MO-De Kalb MO-
608 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS...SOUTHERN
GENTRY AND DEKALB COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 607 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Union Star, or 9 miles northwest of Maysville, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Maysville, Union Star, Weatherby, Amity, and Fairport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4004 9432 4003 9420 3977 9428 3988 9460
      3999 9460 4004 9459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 283DEG 14KT 3996 9452

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
721 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

MOZ013-014-021-022-060045-
Clinton MO-Daviess MO-De Kalb MO-Caldwell MO-
721 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DAVIESS...
NORTHEASTERN CLINTON...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 720 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Cameron, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cameron, Hamilton, Gallatin, Kidder, Winston, Altamont, and
Weatherby.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 53 and
67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3977 9433 3995 9428 3992 9390 3966 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 283DEG 14KT 3985 9421

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BT