Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
239 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms this afternoon. Damaging winds will be
  the main hazard, but hail to quarter size is possible in the
  strongest storms.

- Dense fog possible early Friday morning.

- Multiple additional rain chances from this weekend into next
  week. The highest probability period is Late Saturday night
  through Sunday with an >85% chance of seeing at least 0.01" in
  the 24 hours ending 7 PM Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough, with at least a
neutral tilt and potentially a slight negative tilt, over
central KS currently. This shortwave will continue to push
eastward through the afternoon and evening hours with models
showing a tendency to negative tilting. At the surface, earlier
convection, coupled with the ascent from the approaching
shortwave, is keeping most of the area cloudy, limiting
destabilization. However, dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s
across the area and there is some clearing noted in our southern
and eastern zones, which is allowing temperatures to climb into
the 80s quickly. This combination of lower cloud cover,
allowing for warmer temperatures, and the increased moisture
will help southern and eastern portions of the forecast area
build 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Stronger flow moving around the
base of the shortwave will also lead to modestly stronger shear
with 25-30kt of deep-layer shear possible. All this points to a
window when strong to severe storms would be possible in mainly
our southern and eastern zones (roughly southeast of a line
from Paola, KS to Kirksville) and in a time frame from about 20Z
through 04Z. One other item to mention with this setup is that
regional radar imagery shows what looks like an MCV moving into
northeastern KS, with a line of storms developing along and
southeast of the vortex. As this area moves into eastern KS and
western MO, it looks to weaken as the instability isn't as
strong and better shear shifts to the south.

Showers and storms move east of the area tonight with skies
potentially clearing out across northeastern KS and northern MO.
While we won't have high pressure centered right over the area,
winds may become light enough overnight to limit boundary layer
mixing and increase the potential for fog development. The latest
HREF shows generally a 40-60% chance for visibility less than 1 mile
late tonight into early morning. Have added fog, some of it dense,
to the forecast for areas mainly north of the MO river.

There are multiple additional chances for precipitation from
Saturday night through the remainder of the forecast. The greatest
potential looks like Saturday night into Sunday. Models show a
strong nocturnal low-level jet that noses into eastern KS and
western MO. This LLJ will lead to strong moisture transport into the
area and all ahead of a strong mid-level shortwave trough.
Precipitable water values will be approaching 1.8" Sunday morning.
Using the sounding climatology page via SPC, since the ensemble
situational awareness table isn't currently working, this puts
eastern KS greater than the 90th percentile but less than the daily
average max value. So this is an unseasonably moist airmass moving
into the area and given the setup, there is potential for pockets of
heavy rain. Ensemble guidance shows there is a small potential (5-
10%) for 24 hour precipitation to exceed 1.5" by 7 pm Sunday.

For the remainder of the extended, there are multiple periods with
some probability of precipitation. Ensemble mean 500mb heights and
clusters start early next work week with zonal to broad troughing
noted. The upper pattern becomes more variable by Tuesday into
Wednesday with nearly two-thirds of members showing varying
strength of troughing over the middle of the country and a
smaller percentage showing the area on the eastern edge of
ridging. With the preference for troughing over the middle of
the country, it's not surprising there are small probabilities
of precipitation throughout the extended with PoPs generally in
the 20-40% range from Monday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Main change with this forecast was to adjust later the timing of
another line of storms and refine the overall timing to 21Z-01Z
for storms in the KC area terminals. Overall, it is looking like
storms will initiate near or just east of the KS-MO state line
near 21Z and then quickly track east through the late afternoon
and evening hours. There is still some east-west variability in
initiation so still have a three-hour period of time as the most
likely to see storms. It is possible that storms initiate east
of all the terminals. Overnight, focus shifts to the potential
for fog, especially north of the Missouri River. Latest HREF
showing a 40% to 60% probability of visibility less than 1 mile
for most areas north of the river, and more spotty probabilities
south. Have added some mention of fog in all forecasts and as
confidence increases in dense fog, updates can be made.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0504 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191004-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0504 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon/evening.
  Strong to damaging winds are the most likely hazard.

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms possible Friday into
  early next week.

- Near-seasonal temperatures (upper 70s to low 80s) Friday into

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