Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon-evening.
  Strong to damaging winds are the most likely hazard.

- Multiple periods of storms possible through Thursday night.

- Additional precipitation chances Saturday - Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

A stagnant upper-level pattern, with what looks like a high-over-low
Rex block over the middle the country, is keeping the central to
northern Plains unsettled. Eastern KS and MO are on the eastern side
of the low of the Rex and that is helping to keep the area warmer
than normal, for this time of year. That warmth is also leading to
mainly diurnally driven showers and storms in the area. As I am
writing this sentence (1830Z) it appears that the outflow boundary
that pushed eastward earlier is helping to initiate new convection
from near Clinton, MO to SE IA. With weak shear, nearly 2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE available, and an inverted-V type sounding, strong to
damaging wind gusts look like the most likely hazard. There may also
be some small hail, and the most robust storms could perhaps produce
quarter size hail. Additionally, locally heavy rain is also expected
given the scattered nature to the storms.

Over the next few days, there are multiple other chances for showers
and storms in the area. The most likely time frame looks like
Thursday afternoon through the overnight hours. The low portion of
the Rex block begins to break down and shift east. This will lead to
vorticity advection into eastern KS and western MO which helps
to force showers and storms Thursday afternoon through the
overnight hours. There is a fair amount of variability in
forecast CAPE, about 800 J/kg at the 10th percentile, to around
2000 J/kg at the 90th percentile, which adds uncertainty to how
strong storms may be. Additionally, models show relatively
stronger flow rounding the base of the shortwave moving through,
which would support stronger shear. But even this varies
significantly, adding uncertainty to the potential strength of
any convection. When looking at probabilities of CAPE and Shear,
it seems unlikely that we'll have the combination necessary for
severe convection. But with the potential for nearly 2000 J/kg
of CAPE and 20-25kts of deep-layer shear Thursday afternoon and
evening, can't rule out a few strong to marginally severe
storms.

Precipitation chances decrease Friday with high pressure over the
area. Friday night/ early Saturday, the low-level jet strengthens
and noses into eastern KS and western MO. This will lead to
additional chances for storms early Saturday that may linger into
the morning hours. This general pattern continues into early next
week with continued low chance PoPs (20-40%) into Tuesday morning.
It isn't until the middle of next that a dry period returns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Multiple potential rounds of storms are the main issue through
this forecast period. Showers and storms look possible at the
terminals, in eastern KS and western MO, this afternoon.
Coverage again looks isolated to scattered. So have just
mentioned a prob30 group for each site with the most likely
timing. Overnight, additional showers and storms look possible,
but there is quite a bit of uncertainty in timing, location, and
coverage. One period of time looks like after midnight tonight
into early tomorrow morning, and again tomorrow afternoon. Given
the uncertainties, have left out mention with this forecast. As
certainty increases, the forecast can be amended or updated.
Outside of brief visibility and/or ceiling restrictions during
any showers or storms, VFR conditions are expected with light
winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0505 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181005-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0505 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances for showers and storms today into Friday. A
  few storms could be strong.

- Near-seasonal temperatures (upper 70s to low 80s) for Friday
  into the weekend.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
237 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

MOZ032-039-040-172015-
Saline MO-Chariton MO-Howard MO-
237 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CHARITON...WEST
CENTRAL HOWARD AND NORTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 237 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Slater, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Slater, and Gilliam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 9315 3922 9324 3935 9296 3910 9283
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 247DEG 9KT 3917 9311

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

KSZ060-MOZ053-172030-
Linn KS-Bates MO-
259 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN LINN AND WEST CENTRAL
BATES COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pleasanton, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Prescott, and Amoret.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9468 3809 9490 3838 9486 3831 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 195DEG 14KT 3814 9477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BT

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