Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Slow moving cold front is expected to work south tonight
  approaching the I-70 corridor. Storms along and north of the
  front could produce very heavy rainfall, and a strong wind
  gust or two.

* Warm and muggy conditions return Wednesday - late week, with
  the potential for periodic storms late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Cold front associated with an area of low pressure centered over the
Hudson Bay extends from northeast Iowa into far southeastern
Nebraska as of 20Z. While cumulus have begun to develop ahead of the
front, atmosphere remains weakly capped with surface approaching
convective temp in eastern Kansas. Convection has begun to develop
along the surface front as atmosphere has become increasingly
unstable with 7.5-8.0 C/km lapse rates from 750 - 600 mb yielding
~3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Upper level divergence from the
right entrance region of the upper level jet is more concentrated
across northern Missouri but remains broadly across the region
tonight into Tuesday. As convection increases in the vicinity of the
front, expect the cold front to work south and become the focus for
additional storms tonight. With very deep warm cloud depths near 12K
feet and PWat values near 2", am concerned about the potential for
heavy rainfall in locations that see storms train and backbuild
along the front. CAMs have suggested the potential for isolated
rainfall amounts of 3-5+" with training storms along the front
across northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri/far southeast
Nebraska tonight into Tuesday.  With dry conditions leading into the
event and only isolated locations potentially exceeding flash flood
guidance, am not considering a flash flood watch at this time.
Current wind shear is very weak (0-6 km bulk shear < 25 knots)
limiting the severe threat potential. Wind shear increases slightly
this evening as the low level jet increases ahead of the front
ticking up towards 30 knots this evening across northern Missouri,
potentially leading to isolated strong to severe storm through the
evening hours. With the very warm environment, height of the 50 dbz
is near 40k. Downdraft CAPE of near 1000 J/kg is enough to lead to a
strong wind gust or two with stronger more organized storms.Anoy
outflow boundaries that develop could also serve as a focusing
mechanism for additional convection.

Additional storms are expected tonight into Tuesday largely along
and north of the stalling boundary across the region. With
relatively weak wind shear and relatively weak cap, severe threat
along and north of the boundary is possible with any organized
storms capable of producing a strong wind gust or two. Am not
expecting heat advisory conditions tomorrow with clouds and
scattered storms throughout the day.

Lingering boundary is expected to lift back north as a warm front
Tuesday night into Wednesday leading to warm and muggy conditions
spreading regionwide. Addtional ridge riding short waves are
expected to lead to additional chances of storms late week, though
there is low model agreement outside of storm potential beyond
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Front will slowly move southeastward out of Nebraska and Kansas
and expecting multiple rounds of pop up shower and thunderstorm
activity. MVFR ceilings may occur with heavier precipitation.
Some models show brief periods of IFR ceilings but confidence
not high enough to place in current 00z TAFs. Timing of
storms/showers has been difficult. TAFs reflect periods of
highest probabilities for occurrence of precipitation at the
terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Krull

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0505 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241005-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0505 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions persist through Monday with heat
  indices near or above 100 degrees F.

- Thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon into early Tuesday
  mainly for the northwest corner of Missouri. The strongest
  storms could produce damaging winds. Heavy rainfall could lead
  to localized flooding. The strongest storms expected Monday
  afternoon into the evening.

- Hot and humid conditions continue through the week. Multiple chances
  for rain and periods of increased cloud cover may provide
  some relief from the heat.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

MOZ001-240000-
Atchison MO-
629 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN ATCHISON...NORTHWESTERN
NODAWAY AND NORTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 629 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fairfax, or 8 miles south of Tarkio, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tarkio, Fairfax, Blanchard, and Westboro.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 102 and 104.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9520 4048 9520 4048 9518 4035 9518
      4026 9525 4026 9543 4030 9551 4058 9536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 208DEG 31KT 4033 9536

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BT

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