River Flood Warning 4, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weekend ahead with highs well above normal for Sunday
  (highs in the 60s)

- Next chance (25%-35%) for precipitation appears Wednesday into
  Thursday

- Uncertainty in temperatures for the start of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

A cut off low has continued its track to the east of the area and is
currently (as of 21Z) over IL. The associated surface low has moved
over the Ohio River Valley region. Winds behind the surface low have
shifted to the north-northwest. A surface high over the Canada/US
border stays well to our north but shifts our winds to the south
overnight as it tracks to our northeast. This will result in the
start of a warming trend heading into the weekend. Saturday highs
are anticipated to range mostly in the 50s across the area. Early
Sunday morning, the next system passes well to our north over MN,
resulting in dry conditions and winds out of the south allowing us
to continue our warming trend. Highs for Sunday are anticipated to
reach the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Some uncertainty lies with temperatures for the start of next week
as the NBM 1D Viewer has roughly a 10-12 degree surface temperature
spread from the 25th to 75th percentile. Grouping the NBM by
clusters, one can see models are struggling on the strength of the
trough moving through the area Sunday. A stronger trough could
result in cooler temperatures on the backside of the low while a
weakner trough could result in slightly warmer temperatures. Monday
highs are looking to range from the upper 40s to lower 50s for areas
north of I-70 and low 50s to low 60s for areas along and south of I-
70. Tuesday and Wednesday seem to have similar uncertainties for
temperatures with dry conditions are anticipated through Tuesday.

Our next chance for precipitation arrives with a surface low moving
through the area from the southwest Wednesday. Increased Theta-E
advection and lift will result in a 25%-35% chance for light rain.
Precipitation chances remain the highest in central and eastern MO,
but rainfall amounts look to be less than a tenth of an inch.

Winds then shift to the north as high pressure moves into the area
resulting in temperatures being closer to normal Thursday and
Friday. The pattern seems to continue to be active beyond the
forecast period keeping the chances for rain alive. Very broad mid
to upper level troughing over the US resembles somewhat of a zonal
flow which could yield fairly stable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

IFR to MVFR conditions expected for the next couple of hours for the
terminals. Conditions are expected to continue to gradually improve
into the afternoon with wind gusts around 20-25 mph out of the north-
northwest. Later this evening, skies will clear out and winds will
weaken as they shift to a more southerly direction overnight. Winds
are expected to pick up again late tomorrow morning with gusts to 20-
25 mph.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier