Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Henry County, MO, Holt County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

943 
WWUS83 KEAX 140001
RFWEAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
701 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025


MOZ001>008-011>016-022>024-031-032-039-141245-
/O.UPG.KEAX.FW.A.0003.250314T1800Z-250315T0100Z/
/O.EXA.KEAX.FW.W.0003.250314T1600Z-250315T0300Z/
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Caldwell-Livingston-
Linn MO-Carroll-Chariton-Saline-
701 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in Kansas City/Pleasant Hill has
issued a Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity,
which is in effect from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday. The Fire
Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Missouri, Fire Weather Zones 001, 002, 003, 
  004, 005, 006, 007, 008, 011, 012, 013, 014, 015, 016, 022, 
  023, 024, 031, 032 and 039.

* TIMING...From 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* WIND...South to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 to 25 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

MOZ017-025-033-040-046-141245-
/O.EXA.KEAX.FW.W.0003.250314T1600Z-250315T0300Z/
Adair-Macon-Randolph-Howard-Cooper-
701 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in Kansas City/Pleasant Hill has
issued a Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity,
which is in effect from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Missouri, Fire Weather Zones 017, 025, 033, 
  040 and 046.

* TIMING...From 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* WIND...South to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 to 30 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ020-021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054-
141245-
/O.CON.KEAX.FW.W.0003.250314T1600Z-250315T0300Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-
Johnson KS-Buchanan-Clinton-Platte-Clay-Ray-Jackson-Lafayette-
Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-Bates-Henry-
701 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas, Fire Weather Zones 025, 057, 060, 
  102, 103, 104 and 105. In Missouri, Fire Weather Zones 020, 
  021, 028, 029, 030, 037, 038, 043, 044, 045, 053 and 054.

* TIMING...From 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* WIND...South to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 15 to 25 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

914 
WWUS83 KEAX 140751
RFWEAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
251 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025


KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-142100-
/O.CON.KEAX.FW.W.0003.250314T1600Z-250315T0300Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-
Johnson KS-Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-
Putnam-Schuyler-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-
Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-
Ray-Carroll-Chariton-Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-
Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-Cooper-Bates-Henry-
251 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas, Fire Weather Zones 025, 057, 060, 
  102, 103, 104 and 105. In Missouri, Fire Weather Zones 001, 
  002, 003, 004, 005, 006, 007, 008, 011, 012, 013, 014, 015, 
  016, 017, 020, 021, 022, 023, 024, 025, 028, 029, 030, 031, 
  032, 033, 037, 038, 039, 040, 043, 044, 045, 046, 053 and 054.

* TIMING...From 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* WIND...South to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 15 to 25 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

386 
WWUS83 KEAX 150301
RFWEAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1001 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025


KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-150415-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250315T0300Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-
Johnson KS-Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-
Putnam-Schuyler-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-
Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-
Ray-Carroll-Chariton-Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-
Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-Cooper-Bates-Henry-
1001 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

However, elevated fire weather conditions will continue into the 
late evening hours. 


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1220 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very strong, multi-hazard storm system will affect the
  region on Friday and Friday night.

- Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop near or just east
  of the Kansas-Missouri border Friday afternoon, racing
  northeastward into central and northeast Missouri by early
  evening. Damaging wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and a
  couple of brief tornadoes are all potential hazards with these
  storms. An enhanced risk of severe weather (Level 3 out of 5)
  has been issued by the SPC for roughly areas east of U.S.
  Highway 65.

- Strong to damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts are expected
  across the region Friday afternoon and evening. There is a
  near-100 percent chance of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph for the
  entire area, and probabilities of 55 mph approach 50 percent
  for areas south of I-70 and west of U.S. Highway 65. A high
  wind watch has been issued for these areas, and a wind
  advisory has been issued elsewhere.

- Very dry air will move into the region from the southwest
  Friday afternoon. With the expected strong winds, critical
  fire-weather conditions are forecast for several hours Friday
  afternoon and early evening near and south of the KC metro. A
  fire weather watch has been issued.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Busy short-term forecast tonight, as a progressive upper-air
pattern across the CONUS will lead to the development of an
intense surface cyclone in the lee of the Rockies tonight and
Friday (below 980 mb) and widespread hazardous weather of
various types for the central Plains Friday afternoon and
evening.

Currently, a deep trough is approaching the Pacific Coast,
leading to widespread rain and snow in much of the West, as well
as strong winds in the deserts and higher terrain. For days,
models have projected this trough to advance into the Four
Corners region tonight, acquiring a negative tilt as the potent
large-scale vorticity maximum ejects into the southern Plains by
12z Friday. With strongly difluent/divergent mid/upper flow to
the northeast of the trough/low, intense cyclogenesis will
occur in eastern Colorado and western Kansas during this period.
An unusually strong, synoptically-induced low-level jet will
develop tonight into Friday morning (65-80+ kt), maximized from
eastern Kansas to western North Texas. As an unusually strong
pressure gradient develops as the low-level cyclone matures,
these winds will easily mix to the surface during the day
Friday, leading to a broad swath of sustained winds of 30 to 40
mph with gusts exceeding 60 mph from western Texas into central
Oklahoma and at least eastern Kansas.

This will occur on the upstream side of a dryline that will be
surging eastward/northeastward during the day, arcing east-
southeastward from the surface low toward the Kansas/Missouri
border, then southeastward into the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex
vicinity by early to mid afternoon. Despite the well-mixed and
dry boundary layer (even in advance of the dryline), modest
instability will develop by afternoon (in part owing to cold
mid/upper levels via strong large-scale ascent). With MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg downstream of the dryline, focused lift along the
boundary should readily initiate convection between 18z and
21z. Models have continued to trend westward (slower) with
dryline progression the past several runs, and now that we are
in the convection-allowing model (CAM) window, several CAMs are
indicating convection rapidly developing near the KS/MO border,
organizing quickly into a strong line of storms in the following
1-3 hours. SPC has continued to increase the convective outlook
risk levels in our CWA as a result, with a slight risk for
areas near and just east of the KC metro and an enhanced risk
roughly near/east of U.S. Highway 65. A moderate risk has been
issued to our east, but it does scrape our eastern CWA border
near Kirksville.

Given the forecast environment, the main threat from these
storms will be wind (pretty easy to mix down 50+ kt, as the
gradient winds will likely be flirting with this anyway; more on
this below). However, with the extreme shear in place (effective
bulk wind difference >60 kt and effective SRH >150 J/kg), cannot
rule out QLCS tornadoes either, despite the dry boundary layer
and high LCLs. Convective mode would suggest severe hail
potential is modest, but it is certainly not out of the
question, given the cold air aloft. One thing to message with
the severe storm potential is the extremely fast storm
motions...likely to be faster than 60 mph. The weather will
change very quickly in advance of the convection.

As the storms race east, the extremely dry air to the
west/southwest will take its place. Relative humidity will
plunge to 25 percent or lower on the upstream side of the
dryline, primarily/especially south of I-70 and west of U.S.
Highway 65. A fire weather watch has been issued for this area.
This is an extremely volatile fire-weather environment given
the strong to damaging non-thunderstorm winds/gusts forecast.
Any fires that start will spread very quickly and behave quite
erratically. Burning is discouraged on Friday in the strongest
possible terms. It should be noted that for areas outside of the
fire weather watch, elevated to critical fire-weather
conditions are still possible, if not likely; however, the
confidence in such conditions occurring is lower owing to the
smaller time window that areas to the north and east have before
nocturnal cooling sets in. It is quite likely the fire weather
products will be modified as confidence increases in geographic
extent and timing of these conditions.

And then, of course, there are the non-thunderstorm winds to
contend with on their own. HREF probabilities indicate a
near-100 percent chance of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph Friday
afternoon and evening across the area, warranting at least a
wind advisory. However, with probabilities of wind gusts
exceeding 55 mph approaching 50 percent for areas along/south of
I-70, this warrants issuance of a high wind watch for this area
during this period. Although this high-wind event may be more
marginal than last week's, enough potential exists for at least
sporadic instances of 60+ mph gusts, which will undoubtedly
produce several instances of tree and power line damage.

As the low tracks northeastward just to our north Friday night,
the severe storms will move east of the area. However, showers
may continue in close proximity to the low during the evening,
so kept at least low PoPs going, particularly in northern
Missouri, through the night. There may even be some wrap-around
precipitation into Saturday in our far north, though this
potential looks fairly low (probabilities generally below 30
percent). However, colder air will filter in, leading to a
breezy Saturday with temperatures about 20 degrees colder (50s)
than our continued unusual warmth Thursday and Friday (70s to
near 80).

Fortunately, the weather looks quieter for the weekend into
early next week, as the large-scale trough moves off to the
east, leading to another period of upper ridging. By Monday, we
should be right back into the 70s. However, with breezy/dry
southwest winds, this will lead to more days of at least
elevated fire-weather conditions, so this will need to be
monitored in the days ahead.

The progressive wavetrain keeps on coming, with another deep
trough approaching the region by midweek. Models are quite
variable with the shape/orientation of the large-scale trough
and the track of specific surface features; however, it does
appear that at least higher-than-climatological PoPs are
warranted by next Wednesday, at the very least. The origin of
this storm system is from the northeastern Pacific, which also
implies there may be some wintry weather to contend with. Long-
range ensemble probabilities of measurable snow around the
middle of next are near 50 percent in areas north of U.S.
Highway 136.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

VFR will continue for the next 24 hours. Main concern will be
winds and wind shear tonight. Southeast winds with speeds
around 10 kt. Occasional gusts to 20 kt are possible this
afternoon, but these gusts should be infrequent. Southeast winds
around 10 kt will continue tonight, with a very strong low-
level jet developing. Southerly LLWS from the SSE of 40 to 50
kt in the lowest 2000 feet is expected for at least a few hours
overnight before surface winds become stronger and gusty toward
daybreak. Wind gusts between 25 and 35 kts are expected through
the afternoon Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for MOZ028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
     Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-031>033-039-040-046.
     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     MOZ028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
     Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-102.
     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...MK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-140800-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
255 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

 There is a low probability of hazardous weather.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 A very strong storm system will move through the region on Friday.
 Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop near or just east of
 the Kansas-Missouri border during the afternoon, racing eastward
 through central and northeast Missouri by early evening. Damaging
 wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and a couple of brief tornadoes
 are all possible. In addition, strong to damaging non-thunderstorm
 wind gusts are expected across the area Friday afternoon and
 evening. With very dry air moving into the region from the
 southwest during the afternoon, fire-weather conditions will become
 critical and potentially extremely critical, especially for areas
 south of Interstate 70.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

CMS