High Wind Warning 3, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Henry County, MO, Holt County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

409 
WWUS73 KEAX 142042
NPWEAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
342 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

MOZ001>008-011>017-022>025-031>033-039-040-046-150200-
/O.UPG.KEAX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250315T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KEAX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250315T0200Z/
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Caldwell-
Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Carroll-Chariton-Randolph-Saline-Howard-
Cooper-
Including the cities of Craig, Maitland, King City, Bethany,
Gallatin, Boonville, Princeton, Chillicothe, Carrollton,
Lancaster, Stewartsville, Milan, Glasgow, Unionville, Maysville,
Fayette, New Franklin, Tarkio, Polo, Brunswick, Grant City,
Trenton, Salisbury, Maryville, Albany, Stanberry, Green City,
Braymer, Fairfax, Rock Port, Keytesville, Breckenridge, Marshall,
Forest City, Oregon, Brookfield, La Plata, Mound City, Hamilton,
Osborn, Macon, Union Star, Kirksville, Clarksdale, Country Club
Villa, Downing, Glenwood, Greentop, Queen City, Moberly,
Jamesport, Mercer, Marceline, and Savannah
342 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, and 
  northwest Missouri.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution 
if you must drive.

&&

$$

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ020-021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054-
150200-
/O.EXT.KEAX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250315T0200Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson
KS-Buchanan-Clinton-Platte-Clay-Ray-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-
Johnson MO-Pettis-Bates-Henry-
Including the cities of Pleasant Hill, Elwood, Shawnee,
Louisburg, Fort Leavenworth, Troy, Independence, Leavenworth,
Paola, Cameron, Liberty, Platte City, Kansas City, Highland, La
Cygne, Lenexa, Gladstone, Warrensburg, St. Joseph Airport,
Wathena, Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Kearney, Adrian, Windsor,
Overland Park, Atchison, Pleasanton, Rich Hill, Odessa,
Riverside, Excelsior Springs, Harrisonville, Mound City, Sedalia,
Concordia, Parkville, Raymore, Weston, Clinton, Lexington,
Olathe, Lathrop, St. Joseph, Weatherby Lake, Butler, Plattsburg,
Osawatomie, Higginsville, Belton, Lawson, Stanley, and Richmond
342 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central, 
  northwest, and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution 
if you must drive.

&&

$$

https://www.weather.gov/eax

BMW

283 
WWUS73 KEAX 150150
NPWEAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
850 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

KSZ025-102-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-032-033-150300-
/O.EXP.KEAX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250315T0200Z/
Atchison KS-Doniphan-Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-
Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-
Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-
Chariton-Randolph-
Including the cities of Craig, Elwood, King City, Maitland,
Bethany, Gallatin, Princeton, Troy, Chillicothe, Lancaster,
Stewartsville, Milan, Cameron, Unionville, Highland, Maysville,
Tarkio, Polo, Brunswick, Grant City, Trenton, Salisbury,
Maryville, St. Joseph Airport, Albany, Wathena, Stanberry, Green
City, Braymer, Fairfax, Atchison, Rock Port, Keytesville,
Breckenridge, Forest City, Oregon, Brookfield, La Plata, Mound
City, Hamilton, Osborn, Macon, Union Star, Kirksville,
Clarksdale, Country Club Villa, Downing, Glenwood, Greentop,
Lathrop, Queen City, St. Joseph, Plattsburg, Moberly, Jamesport,
Mercer, Marceline, and Savannah
850 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

$$

KSZ057-060-103>105-MOZ028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054-150400-
/O.EXT.KEAX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250315T0400Z/
Miami-Linn KS-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-Platte-Clay-Ray-
Carroll-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
Including the cities of Pleasant Hill, Shawnee, Louisburg, Fort
Leavenworth, Boonville, Carrollton, Independence, Leavenworth,
Paola, Glasgow, Liberty, Platte City, Kansas City, Fayette,
Lenexa, La Cygne, New Franklin, Gladstone, Warrensburg, Windsor,
Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Kearney, Adrian, Overland Park, Rich
Hill, Pleasanton, Odessa, Marshall, Riverside, Excelsior Springs,
Harrisonville, Mound City, Sedalia, Concordia, Parkville,
Raymore, Weston, Clinton, Lexington, Olathe, Weatherby Lake,
Butler, Osawatomie, Higginsville, Belton, Lawson, Stanley, and
Richmond
850 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central, 
  north central, and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution 
if you must drive.

&&

$$

https://www.weather.gov/eax

BMW

069 
WWUS73 KEAX 150342
NPWEAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1042 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

KSZ103-104-MOZ028>031-039-040-150445-
/O.EXP.KEAX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250315T0400Z/
Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Saline-Howard-
Including the cities of Fort Leavenworth, Carrollton,
Leavenworth, Glasgow, Liberty, Platte City, Fayette, New
Franklin, Gladstone, Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Kearney,
Marshall, Riverside, Excelsior Springs, Parkville, Weston,
Weatherby Lake, Lawson, and Richmond
1042 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Occasional wind gusts up to 45 mph may still be possible through the 
next few hours.

$$

KSZ057-060-105-MOZ037-038-043>046-053-054-150500-
/O.EXT.KEAX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250315T0500Z/
Miami-Linn KS-Johnson KS-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
Including the cities of Pleasant Hill, Shawnee, Louisburg,
Boonville, Independence, Paola, Kansas City, Lenexa, La Cygne,
Warrensburg, Windsor, Adrian, Overland Park, Rich Hill,
Pleasanton, Odessa, Harrisonville, Mound City, Sedalia,
Concordia, Raymore, Clinton, Lexington, Olathe, Butler,
Osawatomie, Higginsville, Belton, and Stanley
1042 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Kansas and central and west 
  central Missouri.

* WHEN...Until midnight CDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution 
if you must drive.

&&

$$

https://www.weather.gov/eax

BMW

726 
WWUS73 KEAX 150453
NPWEAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

KSZ057-060-105-MOZ037-038-043>046-053-054-150600-
/O.EXP.KEAX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250315T0500Z/
Miami-Linn KS-Johnson KS-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
Including the cities of Pleasant Hill, Shawnee, Louisburg,
Boonville, Independence, Paola, Kansas City, Lenexa, La Cygne,
Warrensburg, Windsor, Adrian, Overland Park, Rich Hill,
Pleasanton, Odessa, Harrisonville, Mound City, Sedalia,
Concordia, Raymore, Clinton, Lexington, Olathe, Butler,
Osawatomie, Higginsville, Belton, and Stanley
1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT...

Occasional wind gusts up to 45 mph may still continue for a few more 
hours.

$$

https://www.weather.gov/eax

BMW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very strong, multi-hazard storm system will affect the
  region on Friday and Friday night.

- Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop near or just east
  of the Kansas-Missouri border Friday afternoon, racing
  northeastward into central and northeast Missouri by early
  evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple of
  brief tornadoes are all potential hazards with these storms.

- Strong to damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts are expected
  across the region Friday afternoon and evening. There is a
  near-100 percent chance of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph for the
  entire area, and probabilities of 55 mph approach 50 percent
  for areas south of I-70 and west of U.S. Highway 65.

- Very dry air will move into the region from the southwest
  Friday afternoon. With the expected strong winds, critical
  fire-weather conditions are forecast for several hours Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Busy forecast period with the main focus being on Friday. Strong
area of low pressure is still forecast to move across Kansas and
into the forecast area. The strong storm will bring chances for
severe weather with large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.
Confidence is high for strong steady wind (outside of
thunderstorms).

Updates included keeping the wind advisory and high wind watch
in effect, and an upgrade to a red flag warning / expansion of
the fire weather watch further northward. Besides minor edits to
the forecast, no major changes in this forecast package. For a
more in depth details, see the previous discussion below (much
of which is still valid, especially for Friday and beyond).

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Busy short-term forecast tonight, as a progressive upper-air
pattern across the CONUS will lead to the development of an
intense surface cyclone in the lee of the Rockies tonight and
Friday (below 980 mb) and widespread hazardous weather of
various types for the central Plains Friday afternoon and
evening.

Currently, a deep trough is approaching the Pacific Coast,
leading to widespread rain and snow in much of the West, as well
as strong winds in the deserts and higher terrain. For days,
models have projected this trough to advance into the Four
Corners region tonight, acquiring a negative tilt as the potent
large-scale vorticity maximum ejects into the southern Plains by
12z Friday. With strongly difluent/divergent mid/upper flow to
the northeast of the trough/low, intense cyclogenesis will
occur in eastern Colorado and western Kansas during this period.
An unusually strong, synoptically-induced low-level jet will
develop tonight into Friday morning (65-80+ kt), maximized from
eastern Kansas to western North Texas. As an unusually strong
pressure gradient develops as the low-level cyclone matures,
these winds will easily mix to the surface during the day
Friday, leading to a broad swath of sustained winds of 30 to 40
mph with gusts exceeding 60 mph from western Texas into central
Oklahoma and at least eastern Kansas.

This will occur on the upstream side of a dryline that will be
surging eastward/northeastward during the day, arcing east-
southeastward from the surface low toward the Kansas/Missouri
border, then southeastward into the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex
vicinity by early to mid afternoon. Despite the well-mixed and
dry boundary layer (even in advance of the dryline), modest
instability will develop by afternoon (in part owing to cold
mid/upper levels via strong large-scale ascent). With MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg downstream of the dryline, focused lift along the
boundary should readily initiate convection between 18z and
21z. Models have continued to trend westward (slower) with
dryline progression the past several runs, and now that we are
in the convection-allowing model (CAM) window, several CAMs are
indicating convection rapidly developing near the KS/MO border,
organizing quickly into a strong line of storms in the following
1-3 hours.

Given the forecast environment, the main threat from these
storms will be wind (pretty easy to mix down 50+ kt, as the
gradient winds will likely be flirting with this anyway; more on
this below). However, with the extreme shear in place (effective
bulk wind difference >60 kt and effective SRH >150 J/kg), cannot
rule out QLCS tornadoes either, despite the dry boundary layer
and high LCLs. Convective mode would suggest severe hail
potential is modest, but it is certainly not out of the
question, given the cold air aloft. One thing to message with
the severe storm potential is the extremely fast storm
motions...likely to be faster than 60 mph. The weather will
change very quickly in advance of the convection.

As the storms race east, the extremely dry air to the
west/southwest will take its place. Relative humidity will
plunge to 25 percent or lower on the upstream side of the
dryline, primarily/especially south of I-70 and west of U.S.
Highway 65. This is an extremely volatile fire-weather
environment given the strong to damaging non-thunderstorm
winds/gusts forecast. Any fires that start will spread very
quickly and behave quite erratically. Burning is discouraged on
Friday in the strongest possible terms.

And then, of course, there are the non-thunderstorm winds to
contend with on their own. HREF probabilities indicate a
near-100 percent chance of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph Friday
afternoon and evening across the area, warranting at least a
wind advisory. However, with probabilities of wind gusts
exceeding 55 mph approaching 50 percent for areas along/south of
I-70, this warrants issuance of a high wind watch for this area
during this period. Although this high-wind event may be more
marginal than last week's, enough potential exists for at least
sporadic instances of 60+ mph gusts, which will undoubtedly
produce several instances of tree and power line damage.

As the low tracks northeastward just to our north Friday night,
the severe storms will move east of the area. However, showers
may continue in close proximity to the low during the evening,
so kept at least low PoPs going, particularly in northern
Missouri, through the night. There may even be some wrap-around
precipitation into Saturday in our far north, though this
potential looks fairly low (probabilities generally below 30
percent). However, colder air will filter in, leading to a
breezy Saturday with temperatures about 20 degrees colder (50s)
than our continued unusual warmth Thursday and Friday (70s to
near 80).

Fortunately, the weather looks quieter for the weekend into
early next week, as the large-scale trough moves off to the
east, leading to another period of upper ridging. By Monday, we
should be right back into the 70s. However, with breezy/dry
southwest winds, this will lead to more days of at least
elevated fire-weather conditions, so this will need to be
monitored in the days ahead.

The progressive wavetrain keeps on coming, with another deep
trough approaching the region by midweek. Models are quite
variable with the shape/orientation of the large-scale trough
and the track of specific surface features; however, it does
appear that at least higher-than-climatological PoPs are
warranted by next Wednesday, at the very least. The origin of
this storm system is from the northeastern Pacific, which also
implies there may be some wintry weather to contend with. Long-
range ensemble probabilities of measurable snow around the
middle of next are near 50 percent in areas north of U.S.
Highway 136.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Southerly winds between 10 and 12 knots should continue through
the overnight period. There could be some LLWS concerns for
smaller aircraft as a 40 to 45 knot SSW low level jet
overspreads the terminals overnight. Winds should begin
increasing once more by around 13z Friday morning, with winds
continuing to increase throughout the morning hours and
afternoon hours. By around 19z Friday, sustained SSW winds
should be as strong as 30 knots, with gusts as high as 45 knots.
There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon, so have introduced a PROB30 group between 19z and 22z
Friday. Winds should come down a few knots by around 00z
Saturday, with gusts up to 30 to 35 knots continuing into late
Friday night (gusts up to 40 knots may continue at IXD). VFR
conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-031>033-039-040-046.
     High Wind Watch from 11 AM CDT Friday through Friday evening
     for MOZ028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.
     Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-102.
     High Wind Watch from 11 AM CDT Friday through Friday evening
     for KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...BMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-140800-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
255 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

 There is a low probability of hazardous weather.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 A very strong storm system will move through the region on Friday.
 Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop near or just east of
 the Kansas-Missouri border during the afternoon, racing eastward
 through central and northeast Missouri by early evening. Damaging
 wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and a couple of brief tornadoes
 are all possible. In addition, strong to damaging non-thunderstorm
 wind gusts are expected across the area Friday afternoon and
 evening. With very dry air moving into the region from the
 southwest during the afternoon, fire-weather conditions will become
 critical and potentially extremely critical, especially for areas
 south of Interstate 70.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

CMS